Heisman Award Watch List: Who is Deserving, Overlooked, and Overhyped?

The 2011 college football season has hit the half way mark and the Heisman Trophy Award talk is heating up. There is a great group of players having phenomenal seasons but who should win the Heisman and why?

The recipient of the Heisman Award means different things to different college football fans and voters. The criterion seems to change every year. Does the award go to the thought best player in college football, the best player on the best team, or the most valuable player in college football?

Or does the award go to a standout player that does the most for their team during a winning or losing season, the most for the game of college football on and off the field, and/or to the player that has the most outstanding season?

Some fans love statistics but statistics can be misleading. What’s more important, the running back with the most rushing yards per game, total rushing yards for the season, or the running back that gets his numbers against his team’s top opponents when it counts?

Rarely does one player embody all the fans and Heisman voters look for in their winner.

Here’s a list of players that deserve Heisman talk, a list of players that will not get invited to New York but deserve recognition, and a list of overhyped players and why.

Let the debates begin.

Deserving of a Heisman Invite:

QB Landry Jones, Oklahoma, Junior

QB Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Senior

RB Ray Graham, Pittsburgh, Junior

QB Denard Robinson, Michigan, Junior

DL Whitney Mercilus, Illinois, Junior

Reasons for Landry Jones:

Jones is ranked fourth in FBS in total passing yards per game (362.80), 18th in passing efficiency (159.65), and 6th in completions per game with 28.40. His 13 passing touchdowns are tied for 21st in the nation, and he has only thrown 5 interceptions in 205 passing attempts. Each game has ended with at least one passing touchdown by Jones for the undefeated Sooners; five against Ball State.

Two ranked opponents, two wins; at fifth ranked Florida State 23-13 (199 yards passing), at eleventh ranked Texas 55-17 (367 yards passing).

Reasons against Landry Jones:

Weeden has better statistical number than Jones. Against FSU and Missouri Jones threw two interceptions in both games. The winner of the Bedlam Series could claim the Heisman.

Reasons for Brandon Weeden:

Weeden averages 376 passing yards per game (2nd in FBS), 4th in total passing yards (1,880), 2nd in completion percentage (75.8), and 9th in touchdown passes thrown (15).

Weeden has thrown for at least 288 yards in every game this season for the undefeated Cowboys. His passing season low of 288 yards came against Kansas when he completed 24 of 28 passes with five touchdowns before leaving the game with 5:11 left to play before halftime.

Reasons against Brandon Weeden:

Oklahoma State has only played one ranked team to date, eighth ranked Texas A&M (438 yards passing). By seasons end Weeden will play against four more teams that are currently ranked in the top 25; Texas, Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma.

How good is the Big 12?

The Big 12 does not have a signature nonconference win. Oklahoma’s win over FSU is diminishing week after week.

Reasons for Ray Graham:

Graham leads the nation in total rushing yards (899) and rushing attempts (150). His nine rushing touchdowns are good for ninth in the nation. In the Panthers biggest game and win of the season he rushed for 226-yards with two touchdowns; South Florida.

Graham should finish the season ranked first in total rushing yards after LaMichael James’s injury. He could flirt with the 2,000 yard rushing mark if Pittsburgh makes a bowl game. More than likely he will finish in the 1,700 to 1,850 range.

Reasons against Ray Graham:

Against two quality opponents he was held under 100-yards rushing; Iowa (97) and Notre Dame (89).

The Panthers have one other ranked team left on their schedule.

Their 3-3 season will not impress voters. Troy Davis rushed for over 2,000 yards for Iowa State in back-to-back seasons in 1995 and 1996 but did not win the Heisman because he played on a losing team.

Reasons for Denard Robinson:

Robinson ranks 8th in the nation in total offense per game (341.20 yards) and 6th in FBS in total rushing yards (720). His 7.1 yards per carry is second to LaMichael James’ 9.0 (Oregon) for runners with 90 or more rushing attempts. He is responsible for 21.60 points per game for the Michigan scoring offense; 3rd in the nation.

Robinson’s 206.40 passing yards per game ranks 61st in FBS. He has ten passing touchdowns and eight rushing touchdowns.

If Michigan wins the Legends Division they could play Illinois again, or Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. A standout game and win against either team could help sway some Heisman voters his way.

Reasons against Denard Robinson:

Michigan has not played a ranked team this season. Only three teams remain on their schedule that are currently ranked; at 23 Michigan State, at 16 Illinois, versus 14 Nebraska.

Robinson is not a true pocket quarterback nor is he a true running back. This could cost him some votes. Tim Tebow winning the Heisman in 2007 should help his cause.

Reasons for Whitney Mercilus:

Mercilus leads the nation with 8.5 sacks and in tackles for a loss yardage (58). His 10.5 TFL is fourth best in the nation along with his 58 yards lost due to TFL. He has forced four fumbles for the Fighting Illini’s undefeated team.

Reasons against Whitney Mercilus:

Most people outside of Illinois or Big Ten country do not know of Mercilus. Illinois has played one ranked team (Arizona State) and only has two games remaining against ranked foes; 11 Michigan and 4 Wisconsin.

Charles Woodson was the last defensive player to win the Heisman (1997) and he had punt returning duties to help his cause. If Ndamukong Suh was not good enough to win the Heisman as a defensive lineman, no one is.

On the uninvited list but deserving of attention:

QB Case Keenum, Houston, Senior

QB Tajh Boyd, Clemson, Sophomore

QB Tyler Wilson, Arkansas, Junior

WR Robert Woods, Southern California, Sophomore

QB Russell Wilson, Wisconsin, Senior

Reasons for Case Keenum:

Keenum leads the nation in total passing yards (2,309), 2nd in passing touchdowns (17), and is 6th in the nation in passing completion percentage (174.80). He is fifth in the nation in yards per completion at 9.7 per.

Keenum has thrown for over 300 yards in every game this season and has completed at least 25 passes in each game for the undefeated Cougars. In 238 passing attempts (4th in the nation) he has thrown just two interceptions.

Reasons against Case Keenum:

Conference USA. The only quality opponent on their schedule is UCLA, if you consider UCLA a quality opponent. By seasons end SMU (5-1) may be ranked which could give Houston one (more) quality win before their bowl game.

Reasons for Tajh Boyd:

Boyd has 1,742 total passing yards (7th in FBS), 15 passing touchdowns, and a quarterback rating of 160.2. His two interceptions in 194 attempts are impressive as well. He has three rushing touchdowns to add to his resume.

Undefeated Clemson had three straight wins against top 25 teams; 21 Auburn, 11 Florida State, and 11 Virginia Tech. The Tigers have two games against ranked opponents left on the regular season and a possible ACC title game which should pit them against another ranked team.

Reasons against Tajh Boyd:

He has been consistent and impressive in two of their bigger games throwing for 386 yards against Auburn and 344 against Florida State. In their only road game of the season Boyd threw for a season low 204 yards. How well will he do in big road games against Georgia Tech and South Carolina?

The last ACC player to win the Heisman Trophy was Chris Weinke from Florida State in 2000.

Boyd left the Boston College game with a hip injury. No news if he will miss game time due to the injury.

Reasons for Tyler Wilson:

Wilson is sixth in the nation in total passing yards with 1,779 for the 23rd ranked total offense in the nation. He has 12 passing touchdowns and three interceptions in 208 passing attempts.

Wilson averages 14.33 points per game for the 17th highest scoring team in the nation at 39.17 per game.

The Razorbacks are 5-1 with back-to-back wins over top 25 teams; 14 Texas A&M and 15 Auburn. The Hogs have two games left on the schedule against top 25 teams; versus 15 South Carolina and at 1 LSU.

Reason against Tyler Wilson:

Wilson is statistically behind a couple of other great quarterbacks that could finish the season undefeated. In the Hogs biggest game of the year at Alabama he was held to 185 yards passing. He did complete 63 percent of his passes and threw for two scores against the Tide, the nation’s number one scoring defense at seven points per game, in their backyard without a running game.

The good and the bad for Wilson is Arkansas is trying to find their running attack. If their run game is found this could open up passing lanes for Wilson down field but it could also take away passing opportunities.

Reasons for Robert Woods:

Woods is second in the nation in receiving yards per game averaging 149.40 and in receptions per game with 11; Nick Harwell (Miami, Ohio) leads the nation in receiving yards per game with 159 but he has played in one less game than Woods. Woods’ 747-receiving yards ranks third in the nation.

Woods set a single game USC record for receptions with 17 against Minnesota and was five yards away from setting the USC single game record when he had 255-yards receiving against Arizona.

He has at least eight catches in every game this season. Syracuse held him to 82-receiving yards in his single game under 100-yards receiving.

Reasons against Robert Woods:

The last wide receiver to win the Heisman was Desmond Howard for Michigan in 1991. Howard was also the punt returner for the Wolverines.

USC has not played a ranked team this season. Their only road game was a loss at Arizona State (43-22) which is currently ranked 18th. USC has two games left on the schedule against ranked teams versus 7 Stanford and at 9 Oregon.

USC cannot play in the first annual PAC-12 Conference title game nor can they participate in a bowl this year due to NCAA sanctions. Missing two extra games will hurt Woods’ chances of winning and padding his statistics.

Reasons for Russell Wilson:

Wilson runs the Wisconsin offense but one could argue the value of running back Montee Ball for the Badgers.

Wilson leads the nation in quarterback rating (216.90). 1,391 yards passing ranks him 29th best in the nation but his completion percentage is third best (74.80). In 111 passing attempts he has thrown one interception.

Reasons against Wilson:

Wilson’s statistics will not overwhelm voters or fans but their possible undefeated season should help. The home win over eighth ranked Nebraska looks nice on the resume.

Wisconsin has two teams left on the schedule that are ranked; at 23 Michigan State and at 16 Illinois.

The battle for the Leaders Division title against Illinois should make that game highly anticipated if Illinois keep winning. Playing in the Big Ten title game against Michigan, Michigan State, or Nebraska gives Wilson another chance to showcase his abilities to voters.

Overhyped Players

QB Andrew Luck, Stanford, Senior

RB LaMichael James, Oregon, Junior

RB Trent Richardson, Alabama, Junior

RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina, Sophomore

QB Kellen Moore, Boise State, Senior

Reasons for Andrew Luck:

Luck does everything a quarterback is supposed to do and does it well. Luck ranks 21st in the nation in passing yards per game with 276.60, sixth in passing percentage completions (73.10), and 17th in passing touchdowns with 14. He has thrown two interceptions in 145 passing attempts.

Media perception becomes reality with players like Andrew Luck. Chances are he will win the Heisman if Stanford continues to win.

Reasons against Andrew Luck:

Luck is considered the best player in college football by NFL scouts. That’s great for the NFL and Luck but this is not a how well said player will do in the NFL award nor how high will said player be drafted.

Luck has not played a quality team or defense this season. Stanford’s opponents and their rankings based on total defense: San Jose State 92nd, Duke 80th, Arizona 115th, UCLA 90th, and Colorado 64th.

His statistics do not overwhelm, maybe because they have not needed him to play on a higher level this season, but who is to blame for that?

Oregon is the only ranked team Stanford has on their schedule. USC and Notre Dame could be ranked by the time of their match-up. USC represents the only challenging road game for the Cardinal this season.

Reasons for LaMichael James:

James leads the nation in yards rushing per game with 170.40. His 852 total rushing yards is second to Ray Graham’s 899. Eight rushing touchdowns are 11th best in FBS.

Oregon started the season throwing to James out of the backfield but has slowed his production in that category. His biggest game was six receptions for 61 yards against LSU.

He had three straight 200-yard rushing games.

Reasons against LaMichael James:

He had three straight 200-yard rushing games against Missouri State (a FCS school), Arizona, and California. California is the highest rated defense that he has performed well against. Cal’s defense is ranked 53rd in FBS.

Against LSU, the fifth ranked defense in the nation, James was held to 54-yards rushing on 18 attempts. Big players are supposed to play big in big games, James did not.

James dislocated his elbow against Cal in the fourth quarter when Oregon was already up 43-15 with the game out of reach for the Bears. Essentially James’ injury was meaningless and he was still in the game for no other reason except to seemingly pad his stats.

The injury takes James out of the running for the Heisman and possibly Oregon out of the PAC-12 and/or BCS Championship title.

Reasons for Trent Richardson:

Should Alabama keep winning it would be a conspiracy if Richardson was not one of the Heisman finalist. Bear Bryant would roll over in his grave and the Alabama faithful would start a civil war. All things college football fans do not want to deal with.

Richardson is fifth in total rushing yards with 729 yards, sports a 6.3 yards per carry average, and has 11 rushing touchdowns that ties him for third.

Alabama has two teams left in the top 25, Auburn and LSU, to play. Auburn may or may not be ranked at the end of the season for the Iron Bowl.

Bama’s match-up with LSU will affect the SEC title game and the BCS National Championship Game. If Richardson plays well against LSU, Auburn, and in the SEC title game chances are Bama will have their second Heisman Trophy winner in three years.

  

Reasons against Trent Richardson:

Alabama’s schedule is somewhat misleading. Alabama will end the season having played five teams that were ranked in the top 25. Arkansas was injury riddled at the time of their game and Florida was done once John Brantley hurt his ankle. Bama more than likely would have beaten both teams handily healthy or not but it sure would have been nice to see those match-ups with everyone able-bodied.

Eddie Lacy and the Alabama offensive line cast a shadow of doubt on Richardson. Lacy averages 8.6 yards per carry and has five rushing touchdowns. Lacy has 69 less carries than Richardson and has 397 total rushing yards (72nd in FBS).

If one takes Lacy’s yards per carry average (8.6) times the difference in carries (69) that equals 593.4 total yards rushing. Add his current rushing total (397) plus 593.4 and Lacy would have 990.4 yards rushing on the season to Richardson’s 729.

Even if Lacy’s yards per carry average were to drop down a yard per attempt, Lacy would still have a better rushing average than Richardson.

Lacy missed the Vanderbilt game due to a foot injury.

The Alabama Heisman goes to… the Tide’s offensive line.

Reasons for Marcus Lattimore:

Marcus Lattimore is the third leading rusher in college football. His nine touchdowns are tied with Ray Graham (7th) but puts him two scores behind Richardson. He has the third most rushing attempts in the nation (146).

Reasons against Marcus Lattimore:

Lattimore’s 5.3 yards per carry average is not bad but not as good as his competition; Trent Richardson, Ray Graham, LaMichael James. Lattimore will get all the carries he can handle as the quarterback situation at USC has up and down.

Stephen Garcia has been benched again in favor of Connor Shaw, but should Shaw stumble Steve Spurrier has proven he will yank him quickly. If Shaw develops into a reliable passing option, some holes may start to open for Lattimore which will increase his rushing productivity.

South Carolina has not played a ranked team this season. Auburn jumped to number 15 after they upset the Gamecocks in Columbia. Two games left on the schedule are against top 25 teams, at 10 Arkansas and versus 8 Clemson.

South Carolina beat Georgia before they started to utilize Isaiah Crowell. Florida has lost two conference games. South Carolina holds the tie breaker over Georgia for the SEC East title game berth. An extra game against Alabama, LSU, or even Arkansas in the SEC title game would help pad his stats and could impress voters.

Lattimore wore down last season after a few games. By mid season he missed a game and was shut down early against Arkansas when the Razorbacks jumped ahead early.

Lattimore’s first three games of 2011 he carried the ball 23, 27, and 37 times; two 100-yard games and one 200-yard game.

In the last three games he has rushed for 77, 66, and 102 yards against poorer rush defenses. Watch to see if Spurrier wears out his best player before the season is through.

Reasons for Kellen Moore:

Kellen Moore is another pure passing quarterback in college football that is fun to watch. When he gets hot it appears that he is playing catch with his receivers in practice. Looking at their schedule helps one to understand why it looks that way.

Moore will get serious underdog consideration and more than likely an invite to New York. His numbers are not gaudy enough to warrant the trophy. He is 29th in the nation in total passing yards, his 17 touchdown passes is 2nd best in FBS, and his 171.6 quarterback rating is 9th best.

Boise States’ schedule will help Moore consistently compile solid numbers.

Reasons against Kellen Moore:

The Boise State schedule and the Mountain West Conference will ultimately crush any chance or hopes he may have of winning the Heisman.

Georgia is the single ranked team on their schedule; ranked 19th at the time of their game. TCU could join the top 25 by the time of their game but one more ranked team will not beef up their strength of schedule enough.

Moore threw for 261-yards against Georgia but has been up and down against lesser competition. He was held to 142-yards passing against Nevada and threw for 455-yards against Toledo. The 455-yard passing effort is his lone 300-yard effort of the season. 

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2011 PAC-12 College Football Preview: The North Division

This is part two of a series previewing the 2011 PAC-12 college football season. 

The PAC-12 North Division 

University of California Golden Bears

The seat under Jeff Tedford’s chair is getting hot. Why his seat is getting hot is unclear. Yes Cal missed a bowl game last year for the first time since 2002 but so did University of Texas. Their win total over the past two years has declined from 8 wins to 5 wins; see University of Texas again. Point being it happens at some point in time to all top tier programs. If there is a real reason for the Bear faithful to be worried is Tedford, known as a quarterback guru, has not developed a top line quarterback to go along with his stud defense and top tier running backs over the past few seasons. This year will be no different unless one of his six potential quarterbacks has a breakout season.

The Bears Offense

There are question marks all over this offense going into the 2011 season. Who will start at quarterback, who will be the next Shane Vereen in the backfield, and will the offensive line gel into a formidable unit? Three offensive linemen return including senior left tackle Mitchell Schwartz. Tedford has recruited talented offensive linemen over the past few years and Jim Michalczik returns to Berkley as the offensive line coach (from the Oakland Raiders) with the mission to refine the talent already on the roster.

Cal signed four running backs to the 2011 class. All four will get an opportunity to show their ability during fall practices and one, if not more, will be counted on to contribute this season; Brendan Bigelow, C.J. Anderson, Darren Ervin, and Daniel Lasco. Brendan Bigelow, a 4-star running back (rivals.com) out of Central East Fresno, California, was the prize recruit of the bunch. Unfortunately Bigelow is coming of ACL surgery and the extent of his availability will not be known until the season is fully underway. Lasco (3-star) has the size, speed, and frame to be the next great Bear’s running back. At 6’1” 190 pounds and 4.4 speed, Lasco could be the game changer that Tedford and company immediately needs.

Senior Brock Mansion should be the starting quarterback for Tedford in 2011. Mansion started the final four games of the 2010 season after Kevin Riley was injured. There’s a good and bad outlook to be had here. Mansion went 1-3 during the final four games. If one looks a little bit closer, two of those games were against top 10 teams; #1 Oregon and #7 Stanford. That’s a tough task for any quarterback to overcome. Mansion does have the top two wide receivers back from last year’s team, Marvin Jones (50 receptions, 765 yards, 4 TD) and Keenan Allen (46 receptions, 490 yards, 5 TD). Senior tight end Anthony Miller should be utilized more in the passing schemes during the season.

The Bears Defense

For an offensive guru Tedford always seems to have good defenses, especially at home. This year should be no different except for the fact that Cal will play all of their home games at AT&T Park in San Francisco. How will this affect the team and their home field advantage? Time will tell but until then this defense should be able to get it done. They are small along the defensive line but quick and deep. Defensive end Cameron Jordan and Mike Mohamed will be hard to replace but the returning depth and senior linebackers Mychal Kendricks (8.5 sacks in 2010) and D.J. Holt should make this team another top ranked defense (ranked 18^th in the nation in total defense in 2010). The only weak point could be in the secondary. If teams can exploit the lack of game experience in their secondary, the Golden Bears will have a tough time against the top passing attacks in the PAC-12.

Outlook

Can the Bears avenge last year’s losses to Oregon State and Washington and win consistently on the road? If so, the Bears will be bowling this year. They drop Arizona and pick up Utah at home but get Washington, Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, and Arizona State on the road. 3-2 on the road puts Tedford back where he needs to be.

University of Oregon Ducks

How do you pick apart Oregon’s team in 2011? Start with the offensive line and loss of playmakers at wide receiver. Kelly will have his hands full in their week one showdown with LSU in Arlington, TX; this game could dictate their entire 2011 season. If LSU can disrupt the timing and cohesiveness of the offensive line, this could be a tough opener for the Ducks. LSU will have the athletes on defense to hang with the Ducks passing attack. Multiple teams in the SEC run a spread offense so LSU will not be surprised by many of Oregon’s alignments or having to account for Darron Thomas. The silver lining either way is Oregon will have two easy non-conference games before starting league play to give the offensive line more time to gel and patch up what needs work, if any weakness are exploited during week one. If Kelly’s big guys up front can hold off the LSU pass rush, last time we see this team in 2011 is in the PAC-12 Conference Championship before playing in the BCS National Championship game again in January of 2012.

The Ducks Offense

Any conversation about the Ducks offense typically will start with returning quarterback Darron Thomas and Heisman finalist and Doak Walker Award winner LaMichael James, understandable. Those players are given commodities and are poised for excellent junior seasons. The offensive line returns three starters but left tackle Darrion Weems did not start at left tackle in 2010. Handling the outside pass rush, senior or not with great game experience, will be a challenge. The lack of quality offensive linemen waiting in the wings is a concern for the Duck followers.

The skill position is another area of concern. Jeff Maehl’s 77 receptions, 1,076 yards receiving, and most importantly, his 12 receiving touchdowns will be hard to replace. Talk around the practice field is who will step up in 2011? Thomas will spread the ball around in Kelly’s offense and find opportunities for his receivers. Returning wide receiver Lavasier Tuinei (36 receptions, 396 yards receiving, and 2 TD) will have to carry the load along with senior tight end David Paulson (24 catches, 418 yards, 4 TD). Look for Paulson to have an All-American-Mackey Award winning type season in 2011. Incoming recruits De’Anthony Thomas from Crenshaw, California (rivals 5-star) and wide receiver Devon Blackmon (4-star) from Fontana, California could add firepower to the Ducks already potent offense. Former 5-star recruit, Seastrunk Lache (from Temple, TX) may be looking to transfer already. Oregon is deep at running back so should Lache transfer, the Ducks shouldn’t miss him too much.

The Ducks Defense

All eyes will be on Cliff Harris starting out the season. New information has come out regarding the details around his 118 mph traffic stop, marijuana possession, and passenger, starting Oregon quarterback Darron Thomas. Harris gives the Ducks a great cover corner (6 interceptions in 2010) and punt returner on offense. Oregon needs Harris in their week one showdown against LSU. How Kelly handles the situation could influence the outcome of the game and the way college football fans view the Ducks’ football program. Harris has put Kelly and his staff in a tough.

Defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti has returning depth on the defensive line and in the secondary; which are the two most important areas for the Ducks defense with the big leads Oregon gets with their quick strike offense game after game. Community college transfer defensive tackle Jared Ebert enrolled in the spring and should help provide quality experience upfront. Rotating quality linemen in and out of the game is key for Oregon’s defense, which spends the majority of the game on the field.

The weak link will be at middle linebacker. Can Kiko Alonso stay out of trouble long enough to make an impact on the field? LSU will attempt to run on Oregon’s smaller defensive line (only one player over 300 pounds listed on depth chart) to control the line of scrimmage and game clock. LSU doesn’t have much of a choice, Jefferson will not fair well against the Ducks secondary. Aliotti may have to play more 4-3 than 3-4 early on. If LSU is successful the rest of the PAC-12 will use this game as the blueprint to beat Oregon. Only problem for the PAC-12 is not many teams in the PAC-12 have the quality players Oregon will have to face in LSU. If the offense continues to score at will putting pressure on the opposing teams to pass to catch up, this will be a repeat of last year’s team defense that finished the season ranked 12^th in the nation in scoring defense at 19 points per game.

Outlook

Can the Ducks stuff LSU’s running attack? Running back Stevan Ridley is gone and LSU must replace LT Joe Barksdale. If the Ducks can get an early lead this game could get out of hand quick. If LSU can keep the score low and grind out yards, the fourth quarter could be punishing for the Ducks. USC and Stanford are the only other teams that stand in the way of another perfect regular season; and the Ducks have to face them back to back in November. If LSU is successful against Oregon, USC and Stanford will use those strategies later in the year. BCS berth in the Rose Bowl. Kelly will have to motivate the Ducks every week against lesser competition. Can he keep everyone on the path for a second straight BCS National Championship game? Low motivation and overlooking other PAC-12 opponents has to worry the Duck faithful. Playing at Washington could be a trap game before back to back games against Stanford and USC.

Oregon State Beavers

This looks like a long season for Mike Riley and staff. Last year’s team ranked 82^nd in the nation with a scoring offense of 24.4 per game and their defense ranked 64^th in the nation allowing 26.8 points per game. That explains the five wins in 2010 after averaging 9 wins per season over the previous four. Ryan Katz’s canon for an arm could keep the Beavers in some games if wide receivers Markus Wheaton (55 catches, 675 yards receiving, 4 TD), Joe Halahuni (30 catches, 6 TD), and Jordan Bishop (22 catches, 353 yards receiving, 2 TD) play at higher levels. James Rodgers returns from injury but has not participated in contact drills during fall practice. He is running full speed so hopes are high that he can make an impact offensively.

The Beaver Offense

Finding a replacement for Jacquizz Rodgers is easier said than done. He led the team in rushing yards with 1,184 and 14 TD and was second on the team in receptions with 44 and 3 TD. Senior running back Ryan McCants should be a bruising running back that can get the short yards and eat up the clock for Katz. Incoming freshman running backs Malcom Agnew (3-star, St. Louis, Desmet High School) and Storm Woods (3-star, Pflugerville, TX) will get opportunities to play early… if they’re ready. Agnew is already taking snaps with the first team offense during fall practices.

With four offensive linemen returning, on paper this unit should be a strength for Riley. Another year of starting experience hopefully will pay off for a unit, even with Jacquizz Rodgers at running back, ranked 97^th in the nation in rush offense. If the line does not play much better than last year, this will be a tough year for Beaver nation.

The Beaver Defense

Stephen Paea showed the guys on the defensive line how to do it. Now it is up to the guys on the line to pick up his slack now that Paea is in the NFL. There are no proven play makers along the defensive front and no returning starters in the line backing unit. Stopping the run will be tough for defensive coordinator Mark Banker. The secondary is unproven as well. The Beaver’s defensive unit ranked 86^th in the nation in total defense during the 2010 season. With Stephen Paea in the NFL the performance of the defensive line has to keep Banker up at night. This year OSU has to play at Wisconsin and at home against BYU at home in non-conference matchups and still play Stanford at home and Oregon on the road in intra-conference matchups. Look for those rankings to be higher if a run stopper and pass rush specialist does not emerge.

Outlook

The offensive line is the key to success. Riley has to have the big guys upfront give Katz time to throw and holes for the backs to run. If this unit does not provide help the Beavers will miss a bowl game for the second straight year. OSU does have five PAC-12 home games and one on a neutral site (Washington State). The non-conference games against BYU and Wisconsin does not help their post season chances. If OSU beats UCLA and Cal at home, Riley will be back on track. If not… there’s always next year. The Civil War against Oregon on November 26 could be OSU’s 2011 bowl game.

Stanford Cardinal

First year head coach David Shaw is in a unique situation. The good thing is he has All-American quarterback Andrew Luck returning. The bad thing is he has All-American quarterback Andrew Luck returning. How could Andrew Luck returning be a bad thing? Expectations! Shaw was the offensive coordinator for the Cardinal in 2010 so he’s not stepping onto the field with unknown players that have to learn his system in a few weeks of practice. He does have to replace three starters on the offensive line and deal with the 12-1 2010 burden Jim Harbaugh has left on his shoulders.

The Cardinal Offense

How could a team that has not had three wining seasons in a row since 1978 be full of such high expectations? Andrew Luck. Luck will be as good as his three new starting linemen. All PAC-10 left tackle Jonathan Martin and David DeCastro return which will make the transition easier. Junior running back Stepfan Taylor returns to add to the 1,137 rushing yards and 15 TD from his 2010 season. Taylor is one of the best pass catching running backs in college football, which will help Luck replace the loss of his top receiver, Doug Baldwin (857 yards, 9 TD). Talented receivers are on campus. The next big Cardinal question is who will be the next playmaker at wide receiver? Luck spreads the ball around as well as any quarterback in the nation. No one receiver will have to carry the load. They just have to make plays when it counts.

The Cardinal Defense

What will new defensive co-coordinators Derek Mason and Jason Tarver do with this year’s unit? The secondary is the strength of the defense with three starters returning highlighted by senior safety Delano Howell. All-everything junior inside linebacker Shayne Skov returns along with outside linebacker Chase Thomas. Incoming freshman linebacker James Vaughters (4-star from Tucker, Georgia) is expected to play immediately. He has the size (6’2”), build (235 pounds), and speed (4.6) to contribute week one against San Jose State. An effective 3-4 defensive scheme is only good if one has a nose tackle to stuff the middle. This will be a major concern throughout fall practices for Shaw.

Outlook

Stanford has an easy non-conference schedule again this year. Their only notable opponent is Notre Dame; don’t let the name scare you. Stanford’s two toughest games are split at home (Oregon) and on the road (USC). Barring any major injuries, an 11-1 regular season is highly likely. Oregon plays USC after traveling to Palo Alto November 19. If Stanford takes care of USC on the road their national championship hopes will be decided against Oregon. Should Stanford lose to USC but beat Oregon, a BCS Bowl berth is theirs to claim. Depending on how the other national powers are performing, an outside chance for a BCS National Championship Game berth could be theirs for the taking.

Washington Huskies

It’s too early to say Steve Sarkisian has the Huskies back but he’s getting pretty darn close. The big question about the Huskies involves their Holiday Bowl victory. Was that a sign that Huskies are ready to compete against the top tier teams in college football, other than USC, or was it a sign that the University of Nebraska was not interested in playing in a bowl game against a team they had beaten earlier in the season, in Seattle, 56-21? Consistency and strides will need to be made in 2011 but momentum can be carried over from the four game winning streak UW finished the 2010 riding.

The Huskies Offense

Jake Locker grabbed the headlines in 2010 but Chris Polk was the driving force for the Huskies’ offense. Polk’s 1,415 yards rushing and 9 touchdowns could be improved upon this season with four returning lineman paving the way for him. Senior left tackle Senio Kelemente and junior center Drew Schafer will be important not only for Polk’s success but mainly for new starting quarterback Keith Price. Price does not have the arm that Locker provided but he can scramble and make plays with his feet to keep the chains moving when plays breakdown. Price will count on senior wide receiver Jermaine Kearse, a top target for Locker (63 receptions, 1,005 yards receiving, and 12 TD; almost half of Locker’s passing yards in 2010) to be his go-to-guy.

The unsung player on the Huskies offensive unit may be clutch kicker Erik Folk. His 13 field goals made on 20 attempts might not impress you but he hit all 33 extra point attempts last season and he shortens the field for Sarkisian by hitting 52 and 54 yard field goals when it counts.

The Huskies Defense

 Defensive coordinator Nick Holt hopes that his defensive line continues to improve in 2011. Their rush defense was porous allowing 190.5 yards per game ranking 97^th in the nation. Holt has been implementing a 3-4 defense during spring and fall practices. Holt’s ability to find outside linebackers that can cover ground will determine if UW fans will see more 4-3 or 3-4 in the fall. Line backer Mason Foster was all over the field last season recording 161 tackles. That kind of production will be hard to replace. Experience returns in the secondary but even the best cover corners need help from the guys upfront. If a consistent pass rusher emerges, the secondary will improve upon the impressive 194 yards per game given up last season.

Outlook

The Huskies have seven home games in 2011 which will match their 2011 win total and get them bowling again. Swing games against Utah and USC on the road will increase their win total and place Sarkisian another step closer to getting UW back to the elite level fans have been wanting.

Washington State Cougars

Paul Wulff has his hands full again in 2011. His first three seasons as head coach of the Cougars has been forgettable; 2 wins in 2008, 1 win in 2009, and 2 wins in 2010. Last season the Cougars were scrappy, hung tough with Stanford and in-state rival University of Washington, and pulled off an upset in Corvallis (31-14). As with most college football programs the Cougar’s season will depend on the improvement of their offensive line. Four linemen return from a group that only produced 91 yards rushing per game, “good” enough to rank 115^th in the nation. Wulff will count on offensive coordinator Todd Sturdy to have his experienced big men ready to block in 2011.

The Cougar Offense

The Cougar’s have the best player in the nation that no one has heard about in junior quarterback Jeff Tuel. Tuel, a Fresno, California, native is tough (he was sacked 51 times in 2010), accurate, and has a good arm. Tuel had 2,780 passing yards and 18 touchdowns last year. He has his top two targets back in sophomore wide receiver Marquess Wilson (55 catches, 1,006 yards receiving, 6 TD) and senior wide receiver Jared Karstetter (62 receptions, 658 yards receiving, 7 TD). If the Cougars can get a reliable running attack, look for Tuel to improve upon his 246 yards passing per game in 2010.

The backfield lacks game changers and break away speed. Freshman Ricky Galvin was supposed to provide that pop last year but broke his arm in the first game of the season against Oklahoma State. Galvin’s size, 5’8” 162 pounds, will not allow him to take snap after snap in the PAC-12 thus another reliable ball carrier must be ready to play. Senior Logwone Mitz has the frame to be an All-PAC-12 running back, listed at 6’1” 230 pounds. But was his 3.6 yards per carry average in 2010 a product of the limited offensive line or his limited ability to get to the next level against opposing defenses? Incoming freshman Chester Su’a from Kaimuki High School in Honolulu, Hawaii, (3-star recruit, rivals.com) could receive immediate playing time. Tight end Max Hersey (3-star, Curtis High School, University Place, Washington) and offensive lineman Alex Mitchell (4-star, Jefferson High School, Portland, Oregon) could push current players for time as well.

The Cougar Defense

There are no linemen listed over 300 pounds on the depth chart along the defensive line. This unit gave up 220 rushing yards per game last season and made a freshman All-American out of safety Deone Bucannon. More stunts and better schemes are needed if the Cougars plan to stop anyone. The linebackers are solid and can make plays when the opposing offensive linemen are not on them. The defense is led by senior outside linebacker Alex Hoffman-Ellis and sophomore middle linebacker C.J. Mizell. The secondary returns experience but no shut-down cover corners. A pass rush upfront is needed to help this group of underclassmen.

Outlook

The Cougars are looking to make a bigger imprint in the Seattle area with recruits. They play two games at Qwest Field, home of the Seattle Seahawks, during the season. Jumping out to an early 3-0 and possibly 4-0 start will turn some heads across the nation and with recruits. The following eight games will be extremely tough. If WSU can repeat last year’s upset of Oregon State at Qwest Field and win the Apple Bowl they could be bowl eligible. But a 3-9 or 4-8 season is more likely. 

Predicted Order of Finish

PAC-12 North

Oregon

Stanford

Washington

California

Oregon State

Washington State

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Larry Scott: A PAC-10 and PAC-12 College Football Review and Preview for the 2011 Season

This is part one in a series previewing the PAC-12 2011 season.

The rollercoaster ride continues for PAC-10, now PAC-12 commissioner Larry Scott in 2011. When Scott took the reigns as commissioner in July of 2009, all was great in PAC-10 football land. USC was coming off a dominate 2008 football season that saw the school finish with a 12-1 record (the one loss to Oregon State in Corvallis 27-21), an early season thrashing of BCS heavyweight Ohio State (35-3), a Rose Bowl win over Penn State (38-24), and their seventh straight PAC-10 conference title.

The rest of the PAC-10 was pretty good as well. Half of the schools in conference made a bowl with great results during the 2008 bowl season going 5-0; Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State 38-24, Holiday Bowl Oregon 42 vs. Oklahoma State 31, Sun Bowl: Oregon State vs. Pittsburgh 3-0, Emerald Bowl: California vs. Miami 24-17, Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona vs. BYU 31-21. All was seemingly great for PAC-10 football. Expansion was bantered about as soon as Scott took over but no serious discussions took place. Why would one want to expand the successful conference and what teams would help bolster the conferences status across the academic and sports board? The upcoming highlights and low lights no one could have predicted.

The rollercoaster ride began in week one of the 2009 football season for Larry Scott. #14 Oregon lost to #16 Boise State 19-8. After the game Oregon running back LaGarrette Blount (now with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) punched Boise State defensive end Byron Hout and was subsequently suspended until November 9, when he was reinstated by the school with Scott’s permission. Nine days after the Oregon loss, UCLA pulls off a major upset at the University of Tennessee beating the Vols 19-15. On the same day #3 USC beats Ohio State 18-15 in Columbus on a last minute touchdown by running back Stafon Johnson. On September 28, Johnson would end his season in a tragic weight room accident when a barbell crushed his vocal cords, adam’s apple, and tore his neck muscles.

Parity in a tough conference ensued as each team took turns pulling upsets throughout the season. When the smoke cleared, Oregon would claim the conference championship and end the season ranked #11, Toby Gerhart finished second in the Heisman Trophy race to Alabama running back Mark Ingram, Jr. in the closest Heisman voting ever, and #22 USC at 9-4 is the only other PAC-10 team to finish the season ranked. Seven PAC-10 teams made a bowl due to the winning capabilities each team showed during intra-conference games. The downside is only two of the seven teams won their less acclaimed bowl games; Emerald Bowl: USC vs. Boston College 24-13, Eagle Bank Bowl: UCLA vs. Temple 30-21.

2010 kept the ride going for Scott. In January, then USC head coach Pete Carroll resigned from his position and took over as the head coach for the Seattle Seahawks. Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin, a former offensive coordinator at USC, resigned to take over as head coach for USC after one year as the Vols head coach amongst a national college football controversy. In February Oregon running back LaMichael James (a 2010 Heisman finalist and 2010 Doak Walker Award winner) was arrested on charges of fourth-degree assault, physical harassment, and strangulation; he pleaded not guilty. In June Oregon quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was kicked off the team after being arrested for marijuana possession during a traffic stop. Masoli was on suspension during his drug arrest for the entire 2010 season after pleading guilty to second-degree burglary charges in March; he pleaded guilty to stealing two laptops and a projector from a campus fraternity house.

June 10, the announcement day of a monumental change for Larry Scott and the PAC-10, the NCAA handed down their sanctions regarding former USC running back Reggie Bush; sanctions included a loss of scholarships and a two year bowl ban. On the same day Scott wisely followed through with his announcement that Colorado will join the PAC-10 as their 11^th conference member. The University of Utah’s announcement as the PAC-12 twelfth member would follow seven days later.

The importance of the PAC-10 adding two conference members seemed to be overshadowed by the turmoil surrounding the programs currently involved. Utah a program of prominence over the past five years, including an undefeated season in 2008, was welcomed by the national media as a “great get for the PAC-10”. The University of Colorado on the other hand had been a low functioning Big 12 team over the previous five years with only one bowl appearance; Independence Bowl in 2007. The addition of the two teams would finally add legitimacy to the BCS power conference by having an end of the season conference championship game. The addition of a championship game means more revenue for the conference and teams involved. Scott was able to parlay the television rights to the first PAC-12 Championship Game to Fox for $14.5 million; the game is to air on December 3, 2011.

With the promise of an exciting future, little of that excitement translated into positive commentary for the PAC-10 when the 2010 Associated Press college football preseason rankings came out. Only three PAC-10 teams were listed; Oregon #11, USC #14, Oregon State #24. USC and Oregon State would only spend a few weeks ranked while Arizona would spend the majority of the season in the top 25 before falling out of the top 25 two weeks before seasons end on the tails of a five game losing streak. Despite finishing the season with a 6-6 record, Arizona State would not be eligible for post season play because two of their victories were over Football Championship Series teams, formerly known as Division 1-AA.

The biggest surprise of the 2010 season was Stanford; yes bigger than Oregon’s run. After the departure of Toby Gerhart to the Minnesota Vikings, many pundits did not give the Cardinal much of a chance. The rise of Andrew Luck to All-American quarterback status would change the fortunes for the 2010 Cardinal team and head coach Jim Harbaugh; Harbaugh left Stanford to become the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers on January 7, 2011 after 4 years in Palo Alto. Stanford cruised through the season with only one loss to eventual BCS National Championship runner-up, University of Oregon, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene. Harbaugh coached the Cardinal to a 12-1 record and a convincing win over ACC champion #12 Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl winning 40-12.

Overshadowing the spot light of the Cardinal run was University of Oregon. Ducks’ second year head coach Chip Kelly would bring more excitement and hope to the Oregon faithful. During the 2010 season the Ducks would be ranked #1 in the Associated Press college football rankings for the first time in school history, finish the season with a school record 12 wins, finish the regular season undefeated with no ties for the first time in school history, and see their head coach win the Associated Press College Football Coach of the Year Award.

The Ducks high powered offense averaged 49.3 points per game easily outpacing all of their opponents, except for the Cal Bears (15-13). A heartbreaking loss to Auburn in the BCS National Championship Game (22-19) only fuels the fire and expectations for the 2011 Oregon Ducks team.

What will become of the newly formed PAC-12 in 2011?

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