This is part two of a series previewing the 2011 PAC-12 college football season.
The PAC-12 North Division
University of California Golden Bears
The seat under Jeff Tedford’s chair is getting hot. Why his seat is getting hot is unclear. Yes Cal missed a bowl game last year for the first time since 2002 but so did University of Texas. Their win total over the past two years has declined from 8 wins to 5 wins; see University of Texas again. Point being it happens at some point in time to all top tier programs. If there is a real reason for the Bear faithful to be worried is Tedford, known as a quarterback guru, has not developed a top line quarterback to go along with his stud defense and top tier running backs over the past few seasons. This year will be no different unless one of his six potential quarterbacks has a breakout season.
The Bears Offense
There are question marks all over this offense going into the 2011 season. Who will start at quarterback, who will be the next Shane Vereen in the backfield, and will the offensive line gel into a formidable unit? Three offensive linemen return including senior left tackle Mitchell Schwartz. Tedford has recruited talented offensive linemen over the past few years and Jim Michalczik returns to Berkley as the offensive line coach (from the Oakland Raiders) with the mission to refine the talent already on the roster.
Cal signed four running backs to the 2011 class. All four will get an opportunity to show their ability during fall practices and one, if not more, will be counted on to contribute this season; Brendan Bigelow, C.J. Anderson, Darren Ervin, and Daniel Lasco. Brendan Bigelow, a 4-star running back (rivals.com) out of Central East Fresno, California, was the prize recruit of the bunch. Unfortunately Bigelow is coming of ACL surgery and the extent of his availability will not be known until the season is fully underway. Lasco (3-star) has the size, speed, and frame to be the next great Bear’s running back. At 6’1” 190 pounds and 4.4 speed, Lasco could be the game changer that Tedford and company immediately needs.
Senior Brock Mansion should be the starting quarterback for Tedford in 2011. Mansion started the final four games of the 2010 season after Kevin Riley was injured. There’s a good and bad outlook to be had here. Mansion went 1-3 during the final four games. If one looks a little bit closer, two of those games were against top 10 teams; #1 Oregon and #7 Stanford. That’s a tough task for any quarterback to overcome. Mansion does have the top two wide receivers back from last year’s team, Marvin Jones (50 receptions, 765 yards, 4 TD) and Keenan Allen (46 receptions, 490 yards, 5 TD). Senior tight end Anthony Miller should be utilized more in the passing schemes during the season.
The Bears Defense
For an offensive guru Tedford always seems to have good defenses, especially at home. This year should be no different except for the fact that Cal will play all of their home games at AT&T Park in San Francisco. How will this affect the team and their home field advantage? Time will tell but until then this defense should be able to get it done. They are small along the defensive line but quick and deep. Defensive end Cameron Jordan and Mike Mohamed will be hard to replace but the returning depth and senior linebackers Mychal Kendricks (8.5 sacks in 2010) and D.J. Holt should make this team another top ranked defense (ranked 18th in the nation in total defense in 2010). The only weak point could be in the secondary. If teams can exploit the lack of game experience in their secondary, the Golden Bears will have a tough time against the top passing attacks in the PAC-12.
Outlook
Can the Bears avenge last year’s losses to Oregon State and Washington and win consistently on the road? If so, the Bears will be bowling this year. They drop Arizona and pick up Utah at home but get Washington, Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, and Arizona State on the road. 3-2 on the road puts Tedford back where he needs to be.
University of Oregon Ducks
How do you pick apart Oregon’s team in 2011? Start with the offensive line and loss of playmakers at wide receiver. Kelly will have his hands full in their week one showdown with LSU in Arlington, TX; this game could dictate their entire 2011 season. If LSU can disrupt the timing and cohesiveness of the offensive line, this could be a tough opener for the Ducks. LSU will have the athletes on defense to hang with the Ducks passing attack. Multiple teams in the SEC run a spread offense so LSU will not be surprised by many of Oregon’s alignments or having to account for Darron Thomas. The silver lining either way is Oregon will have two easy non-conference games before starting league play to give the offensive line more time to gel and patch up what needs work, if any weakness are exploited during week one. If Kelly’s big guys up front can hold off the LSU pass rush, last time we see this team in 2011 is in the PAC-12 Conference Championship before playing in the BCS National Championship game again in January of 2012.
The Ducks Offense
Any conversation about the Ducks offense typically will start with returning quarterback Darron Thomas and Heisman finalist and Doak Walker Award winner LaMichael James, understandable. Those players are given commodities and are poised for excellent junior seasons. The offensive line returns three starters but left tackle Darrion Weems did not start at left tackle in 2010. Handling the outside pass rush, senior or not with great game experience, will be a challenge. The lack of quality offensive linemen waiting in the wings is a concern for the Duck followers.
The skill position is another area of concern. Jeff Maehl’s 77 receptions, 1,076 yards receiving, and most importantly, his 12 receiving touchdowns will be hard to replace. Talk around the practice field is who will step up in 2011? Thomas will spread the ball around in Kelly’s offense and find opportunities for his receivers. Returning wide receiver Lavasier Tuinei (36 receptions, 396 yards receiving, and 2 TD) will have to carry the load along with senior tight end David Paulson (24 catches, 418 yards, 4 TD). Look for Paulson to have an All-American-Mackey Award winning type season in 2011. Incoming recruits De’Anthony Thomas from Crenshaw, California (rivals 5-star) and wide receiver Devon Blackmon (4-star) from Fontana, California could add firepower to the Ducks already potent offense. Former 5-star recruit, Seastrunk Lache (from Temple, TX) may be looking to transfer already. Oregon is deep at running back so should Lache transfer, the Ducks shouldn’t miss him too much.
The Ducks Defense
All eyes will be on Cliff Harris starting out the season. New information has come out regarding the details around his 118 mph traffic stop, marijuana possession, and passenger, starting Oregon quarterback Darron Thomas. Harris gives the Ducks a great cover corner (6 interceptions in 2010) and punt returner on offense. Oregon needs Harris in their week one showdown against LSU. How Kelly handles the situation could influence the outcome of the game and the way college football fans view the Ducks’ football program. Harris has put Kelly and his staff in a tough.
Defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti has returning depth on the defensive line and in the secondary; which are the two most important areas for the Ducks defense with the big leads Oregon gets with their quick strike offense game after game. Community college transfer defensive tackle Jared Ebert enrolled in the spring and should help provide quality experience upfront. Rotating quality linemen in and out of the game is key for Oregon’s defense, which spends the majority of the game on the field.
The weak link will be at middle linebacker. Can Kiko Alonso stay out of trouble long enough to make an impact on the field? LSU will attempt to run on Oregon’s smaller defensive line (only one player over 300 pounds listed on depth chart) to control the line of scrimmage and game clock. LSU doesn’t have much of a choice, Jefferson will not fair well against the Ducks secondary. Aliotti may have to play more 4-3 than 3-4 early on. If LSU is successful the rest of the PAC-12 will use this game as the blueprint to beat Oregon. Only problem for the PAC-12 is not many teams in the PAC-12 have the quality players Oregon will have to face in LSU. If the offense continues to score at will putting pressure on the opposing teams to pass to catch up, this will be a repeat of last year’s team defense that finished the season ranked 12th in the nation in scoring defense at 19 points per game.
Outlook
Can the Ducks stuff LSU’s running attack? Running back Stevan Ridley is gone and LSU must replace LT Joe Barksdale. If the Ducks can get an early lead this game could get out of hand quick. If LSU can keep the score low and grind out yards, the fourth quarter could be punishing for the Ducks. USC and Stanford are the only other teams that stand in the way of another perfect regular season; and the Ducks have to face them back to back in November. If LSU is successful against Oregon, USC and Stanford will use those strategies later in the year. BCS berth in the Rose Bowl. Kelly will have to motivate the Ducks every week against lesser competition. Can he keep everyone on the path for a second straight BCS National Championship game? Low motivation and overlooking other PAC-12 opponents has to worry the Duck faithful. Playing at Washington could be a trap game before back to back games against Stanford and USC.
Oregon State Beavers
This looks like a long season for Mike Riley and staff. Last year’s team ranked 82nd in the nation with a scoring offense of 24.4 per game and their defense ranked 64th in the nation allowing 26.8 points per game. That explains the five wins in 2010 after averaging 9 wins per season over the previous four. Ryan Katz’s canon for an arm could keep the Beavers in some games if wide receivers Markus Wheaton (55 catches, 675 yards receiving, 4 TD), Joe Halahuni (30 catches, 6 TD), and Jordan Bishop (22 catches, 353 yards receiving, 2 TD) play at higher levels. James Rodgers returns from injury but has not participated in contact drills during fall practice. He is running full speed so hopes are high that he can make an impact offensively.
The Beaver Offense
Finding a replacement for Jacquizz Rodgers is easier said than done. He led the team in rushing yards with 1,184 and 14 TD and was second on the team in receptions with 44 and 3 TD. Senior running back Ryan McCants should be a bruising running back that can get the short yards and eat up the clock for Katz. Incoming freshman running backs Malcom Agnew (3-star, St. Louis, Desmet High School) and Storm Woods (3-star, Pflugerville, TX) will get opportunities to play early… if they’re ready. Agnew is already taking snaps with the first team offense during fall practices.
With four offensive linemen returning, on paper this unit should be a strength for Riley. Another year of starting experience hopefully will pay off for a unit, even with Jacquizz Rodgers at running back, ranked 97th in the nation in rush offense. If the line does not play much better than last year, this will be a tough year for Beaver nation.
The Beaver Defense
Stephen Paea showed the guys on the defensive line how to do it. Now it is up to the guys on the line to pick up his slack now that Paea is in the NFL. There are no proven play makers along the defensive front and no returning starters in the line backing unit. Stopping the run will be tough for defensive coordinator Mark Banker. The secondary is unproven as well. The Beaver’s defensive unit ranked 86th in the nation in total defense during the 2010 season. With Stephen Paea in the NFL the performance of the defensive line has to keep Banker up at night. This year OSU has to play at Wisconsin and at home against BYU at home in non-conference matchups and still play Stanford at home and Oregon on the road in intra-conference matchups. Look for those rankings to be higher if a run stopper and pass rush specialist does not emerge.
Outlook
The offensive line is the key to success. Riley has to have the big guys upfront give Katz time to throw and holes for the backs to run. If this unit does not provide help the Beavers will miss a bowl game for the second straight year. OSU does have five PAC-12 home games and one on a neutral site (Washington State). The non-conference games against BYU and Wisconsin does not help their post season chances. If OSU beats UCLA and Cal at home, Riley will be back on track. If not… there’s always next year. The Civil War against Oregon on November 26 could be OSU’s 2011 bowl game.
Stanford Cardinal
First year head coach David Shaw is in a unique situation. The good thing is he has All-American quarterback Andrew Luck returning. The bad thing is he has All-American quarterback Andrew Luck returning. How could Andrew Luck returning be a bad thing? Expectations! Shaw was the offensive coordinator for the Cardinal in 2010 so he’s not stepping onto the field with unknown players that have to learn his system in a few weeks of practice. He does have to replace three starters on the offensive line and deal with the 12-1 2010 burden Jim Harbaugh has left on his shoulders.
The Cardinal Offense
How could a team that has not had three wining seasons in a row since 1978 be full of such high expectations? Andrew Luck. Luck will be as good as his three new starting linemen. All PAC-10 left tackle Jonathan Martin and David DeCastro return which will make the transition easier. Junior running back Stepfan Taylor returns to add to the 1,137 rushing yards and 15 TD from his 2010 season. Taylor is one of the best pass catching running backs in college football, which will help Luck replace the loss of his top receiver, Doug Baldwin (857 yards, 9 TD). Talented receivers are on campus. The next big Cardinal question is who will be the next playmaker at wide receiver? Luck spreads the ball around as well as any quarterback in the nation. No one receiver will have to carry the load. They just have to make plays when it counts.
The Cardinal Defense
What will new defensive co-coordinators Derek Mason and Jason Tarver do with this year’s unit? The secondary is the strength of the defense with three starters returning highlighted by senior safety Delano Howell. All-everything junior inside linebacker Shayne Skov returns along with outside linebacker Chase Thomas. Incoming freshman linebacker James Vaughters (4-star from Tucker, Georgia) is expected to play immediately. He has the size (6’2”), build (235 pounds), and speed (4.6) to contribute week one against San Jose State. An effective 3-4 defensive scheme is only good if one has a nose tackle to stuff the middle. This will be a major concern throughout fall practices for Shaw.
Outlook
Stanford has an easy non-conference schedule again this year. Their only notable opponent is Notre Dame; don’t let the name scare you. Stanford’s two toughest games are split at home (Oregon) and on the road (USC). Barring any major injuries, an 11-1 regular season is highly likely. Oregon plays USC after traveling to Palo Alto November 19. If Stanford takes care of USC on the road their national championship hopes will be decided against Oregon. Should Stanford lose to USC but beat Oregon, a BCS Bowl berth is theirs to claim. Depending on how the other national powers are performing, an outside chance for a BCS National Championship Game berth could be theirs for the taking.
Washington Huskies
It’s too early to say Steve Sarkisian has the Huskies back but he’s getting pretty darn close. The big question about the Huskies involves their Holiday Bowl victory. Was that a sign that Huskies are ready to compete against the top tier teams in college football, other than USC, or was it a sign that the University of Nebraska was not interested in playing in a bowl game against a team they had beaten earlier in the season, in Seattle, 56-21? Consistency and strides will need to be made in 2011 but momentum can be carried over from the four game winning streak UW finished the 2010 riding.
The Huskies Offense
Jake Locker grabbed the headlines in 2010 but Chris Polk was the driving force for the Huskies’ offense. Polk’s 1,415 yards rushing and 9 touchdowns could be improved upon this season with four returning lineman paving the way for him. Senior left tackle Senio Kelemente and junior center Drew Schafer will be important not only for Polk’s success but mainly for new starting quarterback Keith Price. Price does not have the arm that Locker provided but he can scramble and make plays with his feet to keep the chains moving when plays breakdown. Price will count on senior wide receiver Jermaine Kearse, a top target for Locker (63 receptions, 1,005 yards receiving, and 12 TD; almost half of Locker’s passing yards in 2010) to be his go-to-guy.
The unsung player on the Huskies offensive unit may be clutch kicker Erik Folk. His 13 field goals made on 20 attempts might not impress you but he hit all 33 extra point attempts last season and he shortens the field for Sarkisian by hitting 52 and 54 yard field goals when it counts.
The Huskies Defense
Defensive coordinator Nick Holt hopes that his defensive line continues to improve in 2011. Their rush defense was porous allowing 190.5 yards per game ranking 97th in the nation. Holt has been implementing a 3-4 defense during spring and fall practices. Holt’s ability to find outside linebackers that can cover ground will determine if UW fans will see more 4-3 or 3-4 in the fall. Line backer Mason Foster was all over the field last season recording 161 tackles. That kind of production will be hard to replace. Experience returns in the secondary but even the best cover corners need help from the guys upfront. If a consistent pass rusher emerges, the secondary will improve upon the impressive 194 yards per game given up last season.
Outlook
The Huskies have seven home games in 2011 which will match their 2011 win total and get them bowling again. Swing games against Utah and USC on the road will increase their win total and place Sarkisian another step closer to getting UW back to the elite level fans have been wanting.
Washington State Cougars
Paul Wulff has his hands full again in 2011. His first three seasons as head coach of the Cougars has been forgettable; 2 wins in 2008, 1 win in 2009, and 2 wins in 2010. Last season the Cougars were scrappy, hung tough with Stanford and in-state rival University of Washington, and pulled off an upset in Corvallis (31-14). As with most college football programs the Cougar’s season will depend on the improvement of their offensive line. Four linemen return from a group that only produced 91 yards rushing per game, “good” enough to rank 115th in the nation. Wulff will count on offensive coordinator Todd Sturdy to have his experienced big men ready to block in 2011.
The Cougar Offense
The Cougar’s have the best player in the nation that no one has heard about in junior quarterback Jeff Tuel. Tuel, a Fresno, California, native is tough (he was sacked 51 times in 2010), accurate, and has a good arm. Tuel had 2,780 passing yards and 18 touchdowns last year. He has his top two targets back in sophomore wide receiver Marquess Wilson (55 catches, 1,006 yards receiving, 6 TD) and senior wide receiver Jared Karstetter (62 receptions, 658 yards receiving, 7 TD). If the Cougars can get a reliable running attack, look for Tuel to improve upon his 246 yards passing per game in 2010.
The backfield lacks game changers and break away speed. Freshman Ricky Galvin was supposed to provide that pop last year but broke his arm in the first game of the season against Oklahoma State. Galvin’s size, 5’8” 162 pounds, will not allow him to take snap after snap in the PAC-12 thus another reliable ball carrier must be ready to play. Senior Logwone Mitz has the frame to be an All-PAC-12 running back, listed at 6’1” 230 pounds. But was his 3.6 yards per carry average in 2010 a product of the limited offensive line or his limited ability to get to the next level against opposing defenses? Incoming freshman Chester Su’a from Kaimuki High School in Honolulu, Hawaii, (3-star recruit, rivals.com) could receive immediate playing time. Tight end Max Hersey (3-star, Curtis High School, University Place, Washington) and offensive lineman Alex Mitchell (4-star, Jefferson High School, Portland, Oregon) could push current players for time as well.
The Cougar Defense
There are no linemen listed over 300 pounds on the depth chart along the defensive line. This unit gave up 220 rushing yards per game last season and made a freshman All-American out of safety Deone Bucannon. More stunts and better schemes are needed if the Cougars plan to stop anyone. The linebackers are solid and can make plays when the opposing offensive linemen are not on them. The defense is led by senior outside linebacker Alex Hoffman-Ellis and sophomore middle linebacker C.J. Mizell. The secondary returns experience but no shut-down cover corners. A pass rush upfront is needed to help this group of underclassmen.
Outlook
The Cougars are looking to make a bigger imprint in the Seattle area with recruits. They play two games at Qwest Field, home of the Seattle Seahawks, during the season. Jumping out to an early 3-0 and possibly 4-0 start will turn some heads across the nation and with recruits. The following eight games will be extremely tough. If WSU can repeat last year’s upset of Oregon State at Qwest Field and win the Apple Bowl they could be bowl eligible. But a 3-9 or 4-8 season is more likely.
Predicted Order of Finish
PAC-12 North
Oregon
Stanford
Washington
California
Oregon State
Washington State
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