Liberty Bowl Preview: Vanderbilt versus Cincinnati in SEC-Big East Matchup

The Liberty Bowl has a storied tradition of producing can’t miss bowl games and this year’s contest is no exception. On December 31, Memphis, Tennessee will host an up and coming 6-6 Vanderbilt team against a powerful 9-3 Cincinnati squad in a SEC versus Big East showdown.

Both teams feature head coaches looking to establish themselves at their new schools.

In his first year at Vanderbilt, James Franklin has brought an excitement to the Commodore program not seen since the mid 1970’s when Steve Sloan and Fred Pancoast were roaming the sidelines as the head coach. No coincidence that was the last time Vandy had back-to-back winning seasons.

Franklin managed to surpass the Commodores’ total wins from 2009 (2) and 2010 (2) while changing the mentality of an overlooked program to one opposing team’s fear.

Vandy had an opportunity to beat Georgia, Arkansas, Florida, and Tennessee this year. As with many young teams the Commodores are still learning how to win and appear to be only a year away from being a SEC East contender.

After three seasons at Central Michigan (2007-2009), Butch Jones followed his predecessor Brian Kelly from CMU to Cincinnati when Kelly departed for the Notre Dame job opening.

Jones had a tall order to fill in 2010. The Bearcats were 12-1 in 2009 coming off an undefeated regular season and a Big East Championship with their lone loss coming in the Sugar Bowl to No. 5 Florida. Cincinnati struggled to a 4-8 record but Jones instilled in his players a blueprint for what would be a great 2011 campaign.

The Bearcats hard work paid off in 2011 with tough wins over Louisville, South Florida, and Pittsburgh. A heartbreaking three point loss to West Virginia November 12, led to a let down loss to Rutgers the following weekend which cost the school a BCS game and the outright Big East Championship.

It is no coincidence that Cincinnati struggled after the injury to senior quarterback Zack Collaros in the WVU game. Despite missing the final three games of the season due to a fractured ankle, Collaros finished the season ranked No. 7 in the Big East in total passing yards (1,854) and second in quarterback rating (139.9).

Scouting the Offenses

Call it overcoming adversity or plug and play, Vanderbilt and Cincinnati both went through quarterback changes during the season on their way to the Liberty Bowl matchup.

Senior quarterback Larry Smith started the season for Vandy before giving way to Jordan Rodgers October 22, against Army. Rodgers looked uncomfortable in the pocket at first but has grown into a dual-threat quarterback. He has 10 or more rushing attempts and 10 or more passing attempts in every game he has started this season.

Rodgers finished the season with a quarterback rating of 119.6 and was sixth in the SEC with 1,498 total passing yards. His touchdown to interception ration (9/9) leaves room for improvement.

The top receiving target for the Commodores is Jordan Matthews. Matthews finished the season fourth in the SEC in total receiving yards (722) and first in average yards per catch (19.5). He had three 100 yards games with Jordan under center – Arkansas, Florida, and Kentucky.

Chris Boyd is the big play possession receiver for the Commodores. Of his 29 catches on the season 7 were for touchdowns. He had 404 total receiving yards during the regular season.

The down-field threat of Jordan Matthews and Chris Boyd coupled with the improved offensive line play has allowed junior running back Zac Stacy the opportunity to break the single season rushing record for Vanderbilt (1,136).

Stacy had five 100-yards rushing games (Ole Miss, Army, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Wake Forest) and added 13 rushing touchdowns. He finished third in the SEC in total rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns.

Stacy is not a receiving threat out of the backfield. His game high is three catches for 51 yards against Arkansas.

Isaiah Pead is the focal point for the Bearcat offense. He finished second in the Big East in total rushing yards (1,110) and first in rushing touchdowns (11).

Pead played his best against Cincinnati’s better opponents. He had 155 yards rushing against Tennessee’s defense, 167 against North Carolina State, 151 against Louisville, 118 against Pitt, and 113 against WVU.

Pead is a threat to move the chains as a receiver. He had a season high 9 catches for 112 yards against Syracuse with one touchdown. He broke loose for a 69 yard receiving score in that same game.

Cincinnati is not deep at tailback. Even though he has missed the last three games of the season, Callaros is second on the team in total rushing yards (242) with 8 touchdowns. Backup running back George Winn is fourth on the team in total rushing yards.

Sophomore quarterback Munchie Legaux filled in for the Bearcats under center after the injury to Callaros. The big 6’5” quarterback did not play well in his first two games with extended playing time. He struggled with his accuracy and opted to run for yardage instead of checking down his progressions.

In the last two games of the season against Syracuse and Connecticut, Legaux found his footing passing for 169 and 217 respectively. He had a season high three touchdown passes against Connecticut.

Through the quarterback changes wide receivers Anthony McClung, Kenbrell Thompkins, and D.J. Woods made the most of their opportunities.

McClung finished the season sixth in the Big East in receiving yards (675) and tied for sixth with five receiving touchdowns. McClung had a season best 8 catches for 142 yards with 2 touchdowns against Connecticut.

Scouting the Defenses

Defensively both teams get after their opponents, especially with their pass defense.

Cincinnati’s Derek Wolfe ranked No. 10 nationally in total sacks (9.5) for a total of 63 yards lost. As a group the Bearcats sacked the opposition 44 times and forced 14 interceptions.

Senior defensive tackle Tim Fugger leads the Commodores with 6.5 sacks, 47 yards lost. As a team in a run-first conference Vandy has 24 total sacks.

Another similarity between the two defenses is their heart and soul senior linebackers, Chris Marve for Vanderbilt and J.K. Schaffer for the Bearcats.

Schaffer is the active leading tackler in the Big East. His 105 total tackles in 2011 ranks No. 48 in CFB and he is tied with teammate Devan Drane for most interceptions on the team (3). Marve has 47 solo tackles and a total of 84 on the year.

Casey Hayward is the shut-down corner back for Vandy. He has a team high five picks on the year for a unit that came up with 17 total interceptions.

Vanderbilt may have the sixth best total defense (324.58) in the SEC but do not let that fool you. That translates to a No. 19 ranking in college football.

Cincinnati has the No. 47 ranked total defense allowing 362.58 total yards per game.

The special teams nod goes to the Bearcats. Freshman kicker Tony Millano has made 16 of his 22 attempts and 43 of 46 extra point attempts.

Field goal kicking is not a strong suit for Vanderbilt having only converted 7 out of 13 attempts.

The Analysis

Will he or won’t he play? That is the question centered on Zach Callaros. Reports are he has been practicing but on a limited basis. Even if his ankle was full strength would he be sharp enough against Vanderbilt’s defense after missing so much time?

Having Callaros in the lineup gives the Bearcats a presence and leadership not provided by Legaux. Much of Callaros’ game is the ability to pick up yards with his running. If he is slowed by his ankle Vanderbilt could have a field day with him sitting in the pocket.

The Schaffer versus Stacy and Marve versus Pead matchups should be worth watching the Liberty Bowl alone. If one of these backs can break a long score that could be all either team needs to win.

Should Jones stick with Legaux, Vanderbilt should do a good job of containing Legaux and forcing fourth down plays.

College football fans are well aware of the great matchups The Liberty Bowl provides. Over the past seven years the average margin of victory has been 5.6 points. Look for this one to follow suit.

Common 2011 Opponents

Vanderbilt 21 – Tennessee 27

Cincinnati 23 – Tennessee 45

Vanderbilt 24 – Connecticut 21

Cincinnati 35 – Connecticut 27

All-Time Bowl Records

Cincinnati is 6-6 having lost their last two bowl games – Virginia Tech 2009, Florida 2010.

Vanderbilt is 2-1-1 in bowl games having won their last bowl game – Boston College 2008.

The Prediction

If Callaros does not play against Vanderbilt the Vandy defense should be able to keep the Bearcat offense in check.

Cincinnati should keep the Commodore offense in the zone but Rodgers has a way of breaking a run off here and there to keep drives alive.

  

The Bearcats secondary can be exploited if the defense front is not getting enough pressure.

Both teams have something to play for but James Franklin has his players believing they can win every game.

Final Score

Vanderbilt 24 – Cincinnati 13

Kickoff for the Liberty Bowl is set for 3:30 p.m. EST December 31. 

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SEC College Football Preview: No. 8 Arkansas on Upset Alert vs. Vanderbilt

The past two weeks have been full of upsets in college football. Powerhouse teams including Oklahoma, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Illinois, and Michigan have all been shocked by lesser or non-ranked teams. This weekend’s match up between the eighth ranked Razorbacks versus the Commodores in Nashville has all the makings of a classic trap game and a potential upset.

Arkansas is coming off a 29-24 come from behind victory against SEC West rival Ole Miss. A game the Hogs were favored by more than two touchdowns. The Razorbacks were down 17-0 in the second quarter but closed the gap to 17-7 before halftime.

In the second half Arkansas defensive coordinator Willy Robinson made the adjustments necessary to slow down the Rebels rushing attack. The Razorback defense tightened up and only allowed a last minute four-yard touchdown pass by Randall Mackey to Donte Moncrief in the second half.

The upstart Commodores have shown signs of life under first year head coach James Franklin. To date Vanderbilt has won as many games this year as they had in the previous two years combined making Franklin a successful hire.

Vanderbilt is coming off a 44-21 ego boosting win over Army. The Commodores rushed for 344 total yards while new their new starting quarterback, Jordan Rodgers, threw for 186 yards. Rodgers also contributed 96 rushing yards on 18 attempts.

Junior running back Zac Stacy had a career high 198 yards rushing in the win over Army. Stacey’s 198 yards rushing would be the third-best single game effort in school history.

More important for the Commodores is the momentum they have built over the past two games. Against the Georgia Bulldogs they pulled within five points with 9:59 left in the fourth quarter but could never find the end zone to pull off the upset victory.

With a showdown against No. 14 South Carolina looming overhead, will the Razorbacks get caught overlooking upset minded Vanderbilt?

Key In-game Matchups

Arkansas passing attack versus Vanderbilt’s pass defense

Arkansas has the 9th best passing attack in FBS. The Razorbacks average 321.86 yards per game with starting quarterback Tyler Wilson averaging 287.29 of those yards.

Vanderbilt has the 25^th ranked passing defense in the nation. Opponents are throwing for an average of 191.29 yards per game.

Vandy’s defense has picked off 15 passes this season. Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino and Tyler Wilson will have to respect the Commodores competent secondary entering the game.

Vanderbilt’s rushing attack versus Arkansas’ rush defense

The Commodores are piling up 159.86 rush yards per game. Arkansas allows 183.29 rushing yards per game, ranked 88^th in the nation.

Zac Stacey is 6th best in the SEC with 579 total rushing yards.

In his past two games against Georgia and Army, Jordan Rodgers is averaging 88 rushing yards per game.

The Razorbacks have been susceptible to giving up big rushing days to opponents this season. Ole Miss ran for 151 yards, Auburn 291, Texas A&M 381, and Alabama 197.

Inside the Numbers

Vanderbilt has the 23rd ranked total defense in the nation limiting opponents to 323.86 yards per game.

Arkansas has the 64th ranked total defense in the nation allowing 386.71 yards per game.

Vanderbilt has the 33rd best scoring defense in the nation limiting teams to an average of 21.57 points per game.

Arkansas has the 34th best scoring defense in the nation limiting teams to 21.71 points per game.

Arkansas’ pass defense is 36th in the nation allowing a respectable 203.43 yards per game.

Vanderbilt’s rush defense is 45th in the nation stopping opponents at 132.57 yards per game.

Vanderbilt’s passing offense averages 140.14 passing yards per game, 111th worst in college football.

Arkansas averages 37.71 points per game.

Vanderbilt averages 24.86 points per game.

Analysis

The Commodore defense has played at a high SEC level all season. Their offense has been more than disappointing.

Starting senior Vanderbilt quarterback Larry Smith was taking a beating behind his offensive line having been sacked 16 times; second most in the SEC. Smith did not finish the South Carolina or the Alabama games due to various hits and injuries he had sustained. Backup quarterback Jordan Rodgers has been sacked twice in his place.

Much has been made about Jordan Rodgers being made the starting quarterback for Vanderbilt; the enthusiasm of the team with Rodgers under center and his bloodline get the headlines. He’s the brother of Green Bay Packers starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers two starts have resulted in a moral victory against Georgia and a blowout win against Army.

The Razorbacks have been waiting for their running game to show up in 2011. Starting running back Ronnie Wingo Jr. was not clicking with his offensive line early in the season.

Junior running back Dennis Johnson, an All-American in 2009 as kickoff returner, missed the 2010 season with a bowel injury and the first two games of 2011 with a hamstring injury. Johnson now appears to be the emerging go-to running back for Bobby Petrino.

Against Troy and Alabama in weeks three and four, Johnson had four and three rushing attempts respectively for a total of 17 yards. In his last three games against Texas A&M, Auburn, and Ole Miss he is averaging 85.33 rushing yards per game highlighted by his 160 yard performance versus the Rebels.

Inside the Teams

Moral victory aside, Vanderbilt choked when the opportunity to beat Georgia presented itself. In three possessions after they pulled within the final score of 33-28, Vandy went three and out with a fumble on the third down of their first possession, threw an interception on their second series, then blocked a Georgia punt but could not score on three plays from Georgia’s 20 yard line to win the game with 15 seconds left.

Rodgers had a really bad throwing performance against Georgia. He was 4 of 19 for 47 yards with one interception. His saving grace was the 80 rushing yards he picked up.

Against an Army team that came into the game with a 2-4 record with a signature win over Northwestern, Rodgers finished the game 10 of 27 for 186 yards passing with one score and two picks. Again, Rodgers saving grace was the 96 yards he gained on 18 attempts.

Rodgers is not a running quarterback. Rodgers is a quarterback that runs because he is not comfortable with his receivers or in the pocket.

The Razorbacks running game has shown signs of life. A balanced attack is something Arkansas and Petrino needs in upcoming games against South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi State, and most importantly LSU.

Against Auburn and Ole Miss Petrino took the air out of the passing attack to develop his running game against SEC teams instead of his scout teams. Petrino will let Wilson throw when needed but pound the ball with his running backs as often as he can until his line and running backs get into sync.

The Razorback defense has been criticized for their play in the first half of their games. Much of the blame should land on the offense. Against A&M in the first quarter the Razorbacks average time of possession was 1:28. The defense gave up 35 first half points, 14 coming in the first quarter.

In a blowout win against Auburn the Razorback offense held the ball for an average of 2:26 through five first quarter possessions. The result was one touchdown for the Hogs and 14 Tiger points. Arkansas finished the half with 21 points and put pressure on Auburn’s offense the rest of the game as the defense buckled down in the second half.

Against Ole Miss the Hogs held the ball for a total of 3 minutes and four seconds in the first quarter which led to a 17-0 first half deficit.

How is the defense supposed to make in-game adjustments when they are on the field the entire first half?

Petrino’s offense will always have a quick strike element to it. Willy Robinson or whoever is the next Razorback defensive coordinator under Petrino will have to live with that fact. But Petrino’s offense has been slow to start this season making life more difficult than necessary. Petrino will try to find the remedy against the Commodores.

Look for the Hogs to try to jump on Vanderbilt early to establish their tone for the rest of the game and perhaps the rest of the season.

Prediction

The Commodores have not faced a passing offense like the Razorbacks this season.

Wilson opens it up for another 250-300 yard passing effort with a couple of scores before being relieved by backup quarterback Brandon Mitchell.

Zac Stacey had rushed for a total of 381 yards in six games before facing Army. His 63.5 yards per game average will not scare Arkansas. Look for Stacey to finish above his average per game but get his yards later in the game.

The Razorbacks ground game will grind away at the Commodores defensive line in a scrimmage game against SEC caliber players. Practice makes perfect.

Vanderbilt will keep the game tight but have little luck moving the ball against the Hogs throughout the game.

Rodgers will keep running to move the chains and find a couple of holes in the Razorback defense late in the game.

Arkansas has not received the credit due for beating their in-conference rival Ole Miss and former head coach Houston Nutt last week. Nutt had his team coached up and up playing at a higher level than they have all season.

Rodgers completed 21 percent of his passes against Georgia and 37 percent against Army. His ability in the pocket will not click against the Hogs.

Once Willy Robinson figures out Franklin’s offensive game plan and Rodgers in-game tendencies, he will stop their offense completely.

The Hogs are getting used to taking their opponents best shots. The role of favorite instead of underdog has been a slow transition for Razorback players but the team has responded well.

Arkansas takes another tough shot from Vanderbilt but wins comfortably getting separation in the third quarter.

The Hogs do not get caught looking ahead for next week’s game versus No. 14 South Carolina.

Final Score

31-10

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