Liberty Bowl Preview: Vanderbilt versus Cincinnati in SEC-Big East Matchup

The Liberty Bowl has a storied tradition of producing can’t miss bowl games and this year’s contest is no exception. On December 31, Memphis, Tennessee will host an up and coming 6-6 Vanderbilt team against a powerful 9-3 Cincinnati squad in a SEC versus Big East showdown.

Both teams feature head coaches looking to establish themselves at their new schools.

In his first year at Vanderbilt, James Franklin has brought an excitement to the Commodore program not seen since the mid 1970’s when Steve Sloan and Fred Pancoast were roaming the sidelines as the head coach. No coincidence that was the last time Vandy had back-to-back winning seasons.

Franklin managed to surpass the Commodores’ total wins from 2009 (2) and 2010 (2) while changing the mentality of an overlooked program to one opposing team’s fear.

Vandy had an opportunity to beat Georgia, Arkansas, Florida, and Tennessee this year. As with many young teams the Commodores are still learning how to win and appear to be only a year away from being a SEC East contender.

After three seasons at Central Michigan (2007-2009), Butch Jones followed his predecessor Brian Kelly from CMU to Cincinnati when Kelly departed for the Notre Dame job opening.

Jones had a tall order to fill in 2010. The Bearcats were 12-1 in 2009 coming off an undefeated regular season and a Big East Championship with their lone loss coming in the Sugar Bowl to No. 5 Florida. Cincinnati struggled to a 4-8 record but Jones instilled in his players a blueprint for what would be a great 2011 campaign.

The Bearcats hard work paid off in 2011 with tough wins over Louisville, South Florida, and Pittsburgh. A heartbreaking three point loss to West Virginia November 12, led to a let down loss to Rutgers the following weekend which cost the school a BCS game and the outright Big East Championship.

It is no coincidence that Cincinnati struggled after the injury to senior quarterback Zack Collaros in the WVU game. Despite missing the final three games of the season due to a fractured ankle, Collaros finished the season ranked No. 7 in the Big East in total passing yards (1,854) and second in quarterback rating (139.9).

Scouting the Offenses

Call it overcoming adversity or plug and play, Vanderbilt and Cincinnati both went through quarterback changes during the season on their way to the Liberty Bowl matchup.

Senior quarterback Larry Smith started the season for Vandy before giving way to Jordan Rodgers October 22, against Army. Rodgers looked uncomfortable in the pocket at first but has grown into a dual-threat quarterback. He has 10 or more rushing attempts and 10 or more passing attempts in every game he has started this season.

Rodgers finished the season with a quarterback rating of 119.6 and was sixth in the SEC with 1,498 total passing yards. His touchdown to interception ration (9/9) leaves room for improvement.

The top receiving target for the Commodores is Jordan Matthews. Matthews finished the season fourth in the SEC in total receiving yards (722) and first in average yards per catch (19.5). He had three 100 yards games with Jordan under center – Arkansas, Florida, and Kentucky.

Chris Boyd is the big play possession receiver for the Commodores. Of his 29 catches on the season 7 were for touchdowns. He had 404 total receiving yards during the regular season.

The down-field threat of Jordan Matthews and Chris Boyd coupled with the improved offensive line play has allowed junior running back Zac Stacy the opportunity to break the single season rushing record for Vanderbilt (1,136).

Stacy had five 100-yards rushing games (Ole Miss, Army, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Wake Forest) and added 13 rushing touchdowns. He finished third in the SEC in total rushing yards and second in rushing touchdowns.

Stacy is not a receiving threat out of the backfield. His game high is three catches for 51 yards against Arkansas.

Isaiah Pead is the focal point for the Bearcat offense. He finished second in the Big East in total rushing yards (1,110) and first in rushing touchdowns (11).

Pead played his best against Cincinnati’s better opponents. He had 155 yards rushing against Tennessee’s defense, 167 against North Carolina State, 151 against Louisville, 118 against Pitt, and 113 against WVU.

Pead is a threat to move the chains as a receiver. He had a season high 9 catches for 112 yards against Syracuse with one touchdown. He broke loose for a 69 yard receiving score in that same game.

Cincinnati is not deep at tailback. Even though he has missed the last three games of the season, Callaros is second on the team in total rushing yards (242) with 8 touchdowns. Backup running back George Winn is fourth on the team in total rushing yards.

Sophomore quarterback Munchie Legaux filled in for the Bearcats under center after the injury to Callaros. The big 6’5” quarterback did not play well in his first two games with extended playing time. He struggled with his accuracy and opted to run for yardage instead of checking down his progressions.

In the last two games of the season against Syracuse and Connecticut, Legaux found his footing passing for 169 and 217 respectively. He had a season high three touchdown passes against Connecticut.

Through the quarterback changes wide receivers Anthony McClung, Kenbrell Thompkins, and D.J. Woods made the most of their opportunities.

McClung finished the season sixth in the Big East in receiving yards (675) and tied for sixth with five receiving touchdowns. McClung had a season best 8 catches for 142 yards with 2 touchdowns against Connecticut.

Scouting the Defenses

Defensively both teams get after their opponents, especially with their pass defense.

Cincinnati’s Derek Wolfe ranked No. 10 nationally in total sacks (9.5) for a total of 63 yards lost. As a group the Bearcats sacked the opposition 44 times and forced 14 interceptions.

Senior defensive tackle Tim Fugger leads the Commodores with 6.5 sacks, 47 yards lost. As a team in a run-first conference Vandy has 24 total sacks.

Another similarity between the two defenses is their heart and soul senior linebackers, Chris Marve for Vanderbilt and J.K. Schaffer for the Bearcats.

Schaffer is the active leading tackler in the Big East. His 105 total tackles in 2011 ranks No. 48 in CFB and he is tied with teammate Devan Drane for most interceptions on the team (3). Marve has 47 solo tackles and a total of 84 on the year.

Casey Hayward is the shut-down corner back for Vandy. He has a team high five picks on the year for a unit that came up with 17 total interceptions.

Vanderbilt may have the sixth best total defense (324.58) in the SEC but do not let that fool you. That translates to a No. 19 ranking in college football.

Cincinnati has the No. 47 ranked total defense allowing 362.58 total yards per game.

The special teams nod goes to the Bearcats. Freshman kicker Tony Millano has made 16 of his 22 attempts and 43 of 46 extra point attempts.

Field goal kicking is not a strong suit for Vanderbilt having only converted 7 out of 13 attempts.

The Analysis

Will he or won’t he play? That is the question centered on Zach Callaros. Reports are he has been practicing but on a limited basis. Even if his ankle was full strength would he be sharp enough against Vanderbilt’s defense after missing so much time?

Having Callaros in the lineup gives the Bearcats a presence and leadership not provided by Legaux. Much of Callaros’ game is the ability to pick up yards with his running. If he is slowed by his ankle Vanderbilt could have a field day with him sitting in the pocket.

The Schaffer versus Stacy and Marve versus Pead matchups should be worth watching the Liberty Bowl alone. If one of these backs can break a long score that could be all either team needs to win.

Should Jones stick with Legaux, Vanderbilt should do a good job of containing Legaux and forcing fourth down plays.

College football fans are well aware of the great matchups The Liberty Bowl provides. Over the past seven years the average margin of victory has been 5.6 points. Look for this one to follow suit.

Common 2011 Opponents

Vanderbilt 21 – Tennessee 27

Cincinnati 23 – Tennessee 45

Vanderbilt 24 – Connecticut 21

Cincinnati 35 – Connecticut 27

All-Time Bowl Records

Cincinnati is 6-6 having lost their last two bowl games – Virginia Tech 2009, Florida 2010.

Vanderbilt is 2-1-1 in bowl games having won their last bowl game – Boston College 2008.

The Prediction

If Callaros does not play against Vanderbilt the Vandy defense should be able to keep the Bearcat offense in check.

Cincinnati should keep the Commodore offense in the zone but Rodgers has a way of breaking a run off here and there to keep drives alive.

  

The Bearcats secondary can be exploited if the defense front is not getting enough pressure.

Both teams have something to play for but James Franklin has his players believing they can win every game.

Final Score

Vanderbilt 24 – Cincinnati 13

Kickoff for the Liberty Bowl is set for 3:30 p.m. EST December 31. 

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SEC College Football: Tennessee Travels to No. 8 Arkansas

If the lyrics to “Rocky Top” were a prayer to the football gods, University of Tennessee fans would be singing day and night this week to help their Vols in a showdown against No. 8 Arkansas.

Tennessee head coach Derek Dooley may be living on a hope and a prayer to keep his team’s bowl hopes alive. After making two straight bowl appearances, 4-5 Tennessee is in desperate need of two wins in their final three games to reach the six win plateau needed for post season play. Playing Arkansas on the road does not help their cause.

Tennessee has been without starting sophomore quarterback Tyler Bray since October 8, when he broke his thumb against Georgia. Bray tweeted earlier in the week that he would be back for the Arkansas game but Dooley was not optimistic in his weekly news conference about Bray’s availability.

In Bray’s place senior backup quarterback Matt Simms was named the starter. Against improbable odds Simms had to face No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama in back-to-back games. After a poor showing in both games, Dooley replaced Simms with true freshman Justin Worley (Rock Hill, South Carolina) as part of an ongoing youth movement in Knoxville.

In Worley’s first start against South Carolina he finished the game 10 of 26 for 105 yards passing with two interceptions, playing like a true freshman. Against Middle Tennessee Worley settled in for 291 passing yards on 23 completions in 32 attempts.

Not helping Worley’s cause is senior running back Tauren Poole. Poole production has been disappointing playing behind a young offensive line. Over the last two games Poole rushed 18 times for 38 yards against USC and the Blue Raiders held Poole to 13 rushing yards on 11 attempts. His two rushing touchdowns last week doubled his season total to four.

For the season Poole is ninth in the SEC in rushing with 513 total yards but his 3.5 yards per carry average tell a different story. His lone 100-yard rushing game came against University of Buffalo after a bye week in Tennessee’s fourth game of 2011.

Looking for a way to spark Tennessee’s limited offense, Dooley started running the Wildcat offense with freshman Jaron Toney against the Blue Raiders. Toney rushed 19 times for 52 yards. True freshman Marlin Lane (Daytona Beach, Florida) returned to full-game action last week rushing for 37 yards on 9 attempts.

Arkansas welcomed the friendly confines of Reynolds Razorback Stadium last week when they hosted South Carolina after spending four of their previous five games on the road. The Razorbacks had a somewhat sloppy yet dominating performance over the Gamecocks.

The Hogs accumulated 435 total yards of offense while only committing one turnover against a Gamecock defense that entered the game ranked sixth in college football. The offensive line gelled in pass blocking situations limiting the Gamecock defense to one sack. With the extra time to throw, Razorback quarterback Tyler Wilson came one passing yard shy of 300.

The Hog running attack gained momentum again behind Dennis Johnson’s game high 86 yards rushing on 15 attempts. Broderick Green and Ronnie Wingo Jr. both added rushing touchdowns in route to amassing 136 total rushing yards.  

The offensive line still has room for improvement in short-yardage and goal line situations. Twice in the fourth quarter the Razorbacks failed to convert rushing attempts on fourth and one. Both attempts saw big back Broderick Green, straight-up and down runner, stopped for a loss.

The Razorback defense did a good job of containing the Gamecock offense and true freshman running back Brandon Wilds. Wilds gained 21 rushing yards on 10 attempts.

The Hogs have continued to show a weakness at covering the opposing quarterback when he chooses to run on a busted pass play. The slow recognition of the safeties and linebackers has kept teams like Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina in contention instead of stopping drives and limiting scores.

USC quarterback Connor Shaw rushed for two touchdowns against the Hogs last week extending a three-game streak of rushing touchdowns allowed by the opposing quarterback; Jordan Rodgers, Vanderbilt, and Randall Mackey, Ole Miss.

The final 44-28 score against the No. 10 Gamecocks was not indicative of the performance the Razorbacks displayed. The Hogs dropped two would be touchdown passes and Zack Hocker missed two field goals in uncharacteristic fashion.

Inside the Tennessee vs. Arkansas Game

Arkansas features the 23rd best total offense in the nation averaging 450.89 yards per game with the 15th best scoring offense scoring 38 points per game.

Tennessee has the 31st best defense in college football limiting teams to 343 total yards per game.

The unfortunate problem for the Vols is their lack of offensive production. The defense is SEC capable but they tend to wear down in the second half due to time on the field and lack of depth.

Derek Dooley’s offense sputters without Tyler Bray under center. Practicing the Wildcat against another team was smart but also a waste of a surprise option against the Hogs. Arkansas will prepare for running back Jaron Toney lining up as the Vols quarterback.

With the return of key injured defensive players slowly matriculating back onto the field, the Hogs have increased their total defense ranking from a lowly 64th in the nation going into the Ole Miss game to 55th best after USC. Look for the Hogs to gain more ground in this statistical category on Saturday.

Tennessee’s scoring offense is the 90th worst in FBS averaging 23 points per game.

The Hogs rush defense has steadily improved as well. Once ranked 95th in the nation, they have improved to 79th best/worst in FBS dropping the oppositions average rushing yards per game to 176 yards per game instead of 189 per game just a few weeks ago.

Tennessee does a great job of limiting the opposition on kickoff returns holding teams to 18.31 yards per return. Derrick Brodus will not be in an Arkansas fraternity house waiting for a phone call from Dooley this weekend. If starting kicker Michael Palardy is not fully healthy the Hog’s kickoff returner Dennis Johnson will give Tyler Wilson excellent starting field position all night. The Razorbacks enter the game with the 10th best kickoff return game in FBS.

Tyler Wilson continues to perform week after week for the Hogs. His 291.78 passing yards per game is 11th best in FBS. Wilson trails last year’s starter Ryan Mallett by 1,243 total passing yards on the season. With four, possibly five, games left to play, Wilson could eclipse Mallett’s 2010 record setting numbers if he averages 311 yards per game over the next four contests.

Tennessee allows 187 passing yards per game. USC had the third best pass defense in the nation holding teams to 136 passing yards per game.

Prediction

The Razorbacks seemed rejuvenated playing at home last week. They have two more games at home before traveling to Baton Rouge to take on No. 1 LSU.

Head coach Bobby Petrino appears to have his team starting to hit all cylinders again going down the back stretch of the season. Arkansas is still coming together as a team. The defense is starting to play better, the kicking game is solid, and the running game is improving. They take another step closer this week.

Regardless if Bray, Worley, or Simms is under center for the Vols whoever will have a tough time keeping pace with Wilson and the Razorback offense.

Petrino has not gone for the jugular on any team in conference this year. He also has not abandoned the run, for better or for worse, in late game situations. His coaching tactics is starting to pay dividends regardless of the style points he may have loss with AP voters and some fans. The Hogs will need some form of a running attack come November 25.

Should the Hogs hold a commanding lead by halftime look for Dooley to get more playing time to his younger players, as has been the case for the Vols most of the season. Resting some of his starters in the second half against Arkansas in preparation for their final two games may seem like poor sportsmanship but too much is riding on the line for Tennessee’s program and Dooley’s recruiting to miss out on a bowl this year.

The Vols expect Bray to be back for their final two games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky. His presence in the lineup would be an emotional lift for his team this weekend, but not enough of a lift to affect the outcome of the game.

Tennessee may attempt to blitz Wilson more than the Gamecocks did. Look for quick strike pass plays instead of play-action passes once Vols defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox tips his hand.

Petrino will keep the same game plan he has for weeks. Spread the opposition’s secondary out, drag his receivers across, get one-on-one situations with his backs on the wings, and keep pounding the ball on short yardage plays until the backs and offensive line click.

Final Score

Arkansas 45, Tennessee 17

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2011 College Football: Potential Bowl Bids for All SEC Teams Still Depends on LSU

As the 2011 college football season takes a turn towards the stretch run, many SEC fans and teams alike are prognosticating where their beloved team may go bowling at the end of the season. With the current state of the conference still influx not only does the SEC have a potentially problematic situation on their hands but so does the Bowl Championship Series.

With last week’s “game of the century” matchup between top ranked LSU and then second ranked Alabama behind us, the SEC West divisional race and BCS National Championship game became more focused… or did it?

Alabama dropped one spot from second to third behind Oklahoma State leaving the BCS Championship waters murky. With three points separating the two former top teams in the nation, fans, mainly Alabama fans, are clamoring for a rematch between the Tide and Tigers in the national championship game. But is that what’s best for college football?

LSU is the clear cut top team in the nation with six of their nine wins coming against ranked opponents including PAC-12 and Big East stalwarts, University of Oregon and West Virginia University. The Tigers are not in the clear yet, waiting in the background for LSU is eighth ranked University of Arkansas and unranked Ole Miss.

The Razorbacks have quietly strung together five straight wins after a disappointing loss to the Tide in Tuscaloosa to improve to 8-1 on the season. In their past five games Arkansas has toppled then 14th ranked Texas A&M, 15th ranked Auburn, and 10th ranked South Carolina.

The Hogs running game is slowly coming together, their 2009 All-American kickoff returner is healthy and making a difference, and more importantly their defense is finally recovering from five injuries sustained early in the season.

As the defense has welcomed their starting players back defensive coordinator Willy Robinson has turned up the heat opting to blitz, call stunts, and leave his corners on an island instead of run a basic 4-3 defense without putting any pressure on the opposing offense.

The Hogs last 8-1 start to a season was in 2006 when they finished 10-4 after playing five top ten teams; Southern California, Auburn, LSU, Florida, and Wisconsin.

Should LSU be worried about the Hogs? Yes!

The battle for the Golden Boot Trophy between Arkansas vs. LSU has become one of the best college football rivalries in the nation. The winner will have BCS and SEC title game ramifications and possible national championship claiming rights.

Since 2005 Arkansas and LSU have split their series 3-3 with the Hogs winning three of the last four. 21 total points separates the winning team from the losing team through those six games. Arkansas has the largest winning margin during this stretch, winning by 8 points in 2010. The average margin of victory between the two schools is 3.5 points.

Before LSU tackles another highly ranked team in Arkansas they must travel to Ole Miss November 19, to take on the Rebels and their embattled head coach Houston Nutt. Nutt, who resigned as head coach effective at the end of the regular season on Monday, has a history of winning big games when he is the underdog.

In 2007 while head coach at Arkansas, the unranked Razorbacks beat then top ranked and eventual BCS National Champion LSU 50-48 in three overtimes. In 2008 as the head coach at Ole Miss, unranked with a 2-2 record Nutt took his Rebel team into The Swamp and defeated the fourth ranked Gators 31-30. The following year Nutt beat LSU again to claim the Magnolia Bowl 25-23 in Oxford.

Does Nutt have enough mojo left to pull off one more dramatic SEC conference victory?

A loss by LSU to Arkansas forces a three-way tie for first place in the SEC West between Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU. Under this scenario SEC tie-breaker rules will place the team with the best Bowl Championship Series standings as the representative in the SEC Championship Game.

The tie-breaker rules are as follows:

1. Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams
2. Divisional record of the tied teams
3. Record against the team within the division or against non-divisional team
4. Overall record against non-divisional teams
5. Overall record against all common non-divisional teams
6. Team with highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series standings after the last weekend of regular season play. If the second of the tied teams is ranked within five or fewer places of the highest ranked tied team. The head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams will determine the SEC Championship game team.

A LSU loss to Ole Miss but a win over Arkansas would still have the Tigers in the SEC Championship Game. LSU would be a controversial decision away from playing in the BCS Championship Game with a SEC Conference Title Game win over their would be eighth ranked team of the year.

The controversy would arise if a one-loss LSU team is picked to play in the national championship game over a possibly undefeated Oklahoma State, Stanford, and/or Boise State.

Adding to the confusion of the SEC race is Alabama. Alabama has two potentially tough SEC games remaining even though they should be heavily favored against Mississippi State and Auburn on the road.

Alabama won in Jordan-Hare Stadium in 2009, their first Iron Bowl win at Auburn since 2001. In 2010 Auburn overcame a 24-0 deficit to win 28-27. The 24 point deficit was the biggest point margin either team had faced for a come from behind win in the 75 game history of the Iron Bowl.

Since 2000 Auburn owns an 8-3 record against the Tide. Alabama leads the all-time series 40-34-1.

Nick Saban has won three straight against Mississippi State including last year’s 30-10 victory at Bryant-Denny Stadium. MSU has only beaten Bama 18 times and has lost 73 total games with 3 encounters ending in a tie during their all-time series.

Both scenarios for Alabama to lose appear to be long shots but that’s why they play the games.

Who is the Best in the West?

Should Bama win out and Arkansas defeats LSU who deserves to represent the SEC West in the conference title game?

Looking at the schedules of each team LSU has played the tougher schedule of the three. At the end of the season LSU will have played seven ranked teams with three of those teams being in the top ten at the time of their game.

Arkansas has the second toughest schedule having played five ranked teams, as Alabama has as well. The difference between Arkansas and Alabama is the Razorbacks have three top ten foes to Bama’s one.

If Arkansas beats LSU, should that serve as redemption for their loss to Alabama in the fourth game of the season? It should but it will not pass with voters and the BCS computers.

The unfortunate reality is Arkansas is getting passed over week after week. Their computer strength of schedule dropped this week from 14th to 17th after playing 10th ranked South Carolina per TeamRankings.com.

The Big 12 continues to get strength of schedule recognition from the computers even though the conference’s only quality non-conference win was Oklahoma over Florida State.

The Big 12 non-conference losses include Kansas to Georgia Tech, Texas A&M to Arkansas, and Missouri to Arizona State.

SEC teams are not getting the same strength of schedule attention even though they have played a much tougher non-conference schedule. Alabama beat Penn State, LSU beat WVU and Oregon, Arkansas beat A&M, Tennessee beat Cincinnati, and Vanderbilt beat Connecticut.

The SEC’s non-conference loses have not been to poor teams sans Ole Miss and Kentucky. Georgia played Boise State and Auburn took on Clemson. Ole Miss lost to BYU while the Wildcats lost to in-state rival Louisville.

There is still non-conference games left for SEC teams to play. South Carolina has Clemson to play, Florida has Florida State, Georgia has Georgia Tech, and Vanderbilt travels to Wake Forest.

The SEC could have three teams deserving of BCS recognition at the end of the season, unless Alabama or Arkansas lose again. Even if the Razorbacks win out they appear to be left out of the BCS picture this year.

A SEC Bowl Snap Shot

Currently there are six SEC teams that are bowl eligible. LSU 9-0, Alabama 8-1, Arkansas 8-1, South Carolina 7-2, Georgia 7-2, and Auburn 6-3.

Florida is 5-4 with remaining games at South Carolina, versus Furman, and versus Florida State. At worst the Gators should end the season 6-6 making them bowl eligible.

As disappointing of a season 2011 has been for Dan Mullen and Mississippi State, they are still candidates for a bowl berth. At 5-4 the Bulldogs only need one win in their last three games. Getting that last win may prove to be more difficult than any other SEC team on the fence. MSU hosts Alabama, travels to Arkansas, and gets the Egg Bowl at home. Will the Rebels give Houston Nutt a fair well victory?

Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee each have a 4-5 record with three games on the schedule. Of the three teams Kentucky has the longest bowl streak at risk. The Wildcats have made five straight bowl appearances since 2006; a longer active bowl streak than South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss. Tennessee has a three-game bowl streak and Vanderbilt is looking for their first appearance since 2008 (Music City Bowl).

Kentucky can play spoiler and advance their own cause when they travel to Vanderbilt this weekend, play Georgia in Athens November 19, and end the season with a home game against the Vols. Which two teams can the Wildcats beat to become bowl eligible?

Tennessee also controls their post season destiny. The Vols have to play Arkansas this weekend but get Vanderbilt at home and play Kentucky at Commonwealth Stadium to finish their regular season.

The oddity is the Vols are the team that will have to upset at least two teams to become bowl worthy. Tennessee is 0-5 in conference play besting only Ole Miss’ record of 0-6.

Tennessee’s head coach Derek Dooley’s saving grace may be the return of quarterback Tyler Bray. Bray tweeted that he expected to return for the Arkansas game this weekend. Dooley may play a strategic hand and hold his quarterback back for the final two games against lesser competition.

Vanderbilt may be the conference and national sentimental favorite to become bowl eligible of the remaining SEC teams. It is hard to cheer against a team that has only made four total bowl appearances throughout their college football existence, 1955, 1974, 1982, and 2008. Their bowl record is 2-1-1. And what a great success story this makes for first year coach James Franklin if the Commodores sneak into a bowl.

The Commodores host Kentucky this weekend, and travel to Tennessee on November 19, and finish up their schedule against ACC foe Wake Forest. Wake is 5-4 and pushing to become bowl eligible as well.

Ole Miss is the only SEC team currently mathematically eliminated from being bowl eligible with a 2-7 record.

A Little Bit of SEC BCS History

The SEC has won five straight BCS National Championships and has the most BCS wins by any conference with 15 in 21 appearances, 7 of those appearances were a result of at-large bids.

Florida, LSU, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Auburn have all represented the SEC in a BCS Bowl Game. Florida has the most all-time wins with five. LSU and Auburn are both undefeated in BCS games having gone 4-0 and 2-0 respectively.

The SEC’s winning percentage of .714 is highest among the six power conference teams. When the media and fans call the SEC the best football conference in the nation, they do it for a reason.

Competition within the conference is fierce when a SEC Title Game berth is at stake. In the 19 year history of the SEC Title game, nine winners have gone on to win the national championship outright or a share of the national championship.

Arkansas, Alabama, and LSU all have legitimate shots at winning the SEC West regular season title. Each team’s goal is to win their division knowing that a possible national championship is riding on the line.

Predicting who Will Go Where

The BCS will take two teams with the highest Bowl Championship Standings after all regular season and conference title games are played.

The following is a list of predicted bowl berths for all SEC eligible teams.

SEC Seed/Team/Regular Season Record/Bowl Game/Location/Seeded Opponent

LSU, 12-1, BCS National Championship, New Orleans, Oklahoma State

Alabama, 11-1, Sugar Bowl, New Orleans, BCS at-large – Stanford

Arkansas, 11-1, Capital One Bowl, Orlando, Big Ten #2 – Michigan State

Georgia, 10-3, Outback Bowl, Tampa, Big Ten #3 – Ohio State

Auburn, 7-5, Cotton Bowl, Arlington, Big 12 #2/3 – Texas

South Carolina, 8-4, Chick-fil-A Bowl, Atlanta, ACC #2 – Virginia Tech

Florida, 7-5, Gator Bowl, Jacksonville, Big 10 #4/5 – Penn State

Mississippi State, 6-6, Liberty Bowl, Memphis, C-USA#1 – Southern Mississippi

Vanderbilt, 6-6, Music City Bowl, Nashville, ACC #6 – Virginia

Who is Left Out?

Kentucky losses out on their sixth straight bowl game finishing 4-8. Tennessee has too many injuries and poor offensive line play to finish better than 5-7. Ole Miss and their talented underclassmen will have to wait until next year for a chance to become bowl eligible.

Predicting all BCS Bowl Game Berths

Rose Bowl – Oregon versus Wisconsin

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma versus Boise State

Orange Bowl – Clemson versus Cincinnati

Sugar Bowl – Alabama versus Stanford

BCS National Championship Game – LSU versus Oklahoma State

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College Football Preview: Predicting Every SEC Game in Week 7

Week after week the SEC features great college football match-ups. This weekend is no different as three SEC East teams continue their fight to stay alive for a conference title game berth and two of the top teams in all of college football look to keep pace with each other in the SEC West.

Two teams are on byes this week, Arkansas and Kentucky.

Arkansas travels to Ole Miss next week.

Kentucky hosts Jacksonville State.

No. 15 South Carolina at Mississippi State

Believe it or not, South Carolina versus Mississippi State is the SEC game of the week.

Mississippi State and South Carolina started the season off in similar fashion, with high hopes. MSU’s came crashing down fast while USC still has a shot to right the ship.

The Bulldogs are 3-3 after starting the season ranked 20th. MSU moved up as high as 16th in the nation but quickly lost their way after Auburn shut quarterback Chris Relf down at the goal line on the final play of their game.

The two head coaches, Steve Spurrier and Dan Mullen, find themselves in the middle of a quarterback controversy this week.

South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier dismissed senior quarterback Stephen Garcia from the team on Tuesday after he reportedly failed an alcohol test. Garcia had lost his starting job to sophomore Connor Shaw for USC’s game against Kentucky last weekend. Garcia had been suspended five times previously by Spurrier.

Another upstart sophomore is pushing an established senior quarterback for playing time in the SEC. This time MSU head coach Dan Mullen has to make some hard choices about who will start and who will sit and how many snaps each quarterback will get in the game.

Chris Relf has struggled much of 2011 after having a solid junior campaign. He is ranked 9th in the SEC in total passing yards (860), 7th in completion percentage (58.1), but has 5 interceptions thrown to four touchdown passes thrown.

MSU quarterback Tyler Russell started the second half against UAB which lead to a 21-3 come from behind win for the Bulldogs. Russell completed 11 of 13 passes for 166 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Relf finished the game 6 of 10 for 46-passing yards.

The in-game battle will be between Mississippi State running back Vick Ballard and USC’s running back Marcus Lattimore. Ballard is fifth in the SEC in total rushing yards with 531. Lattimore leads the SEC with 779 but has 61 more carries on the season than Ballard.

Lattimore appears to be slowing down some. His last three games he’s had one 100-yard effort (102 yards vs. Kentucky). Mississippi State’s linebackers have trouble stopping the run.

Ballard had his first 100-yard rushing game of the season against UAB.

Neither team has a signature win this year.

Both quarterback situations are sketchy at best but USC has the better defense especially with the return of DE Melvin Ingram.

USC wins at Davis-Wade Stadium 35-21.

No. 2 Alabama versus Mississippi

Ole Miss welcomes one of the top defenses in the nation to go against their offense, one of the worst in the nation.

Rebel fans are optimistic that junior quarterback Randall Mackey will be the key to ignite their offense. Mackey was penciled to be the starter for Ole Miss after spring practices but Houston Nutt went with Zack Stoudt and Barry Brunetti to start the season.

Mackey completed eight passes for 214 yards and one touchdown in their last game against Fresno State. Mackey also had ten incomplete passes against the Bulldogs, a team allowing 392.5 yards per game.

Scat back Jeff Scot rushed for a career-high 138 yards against Fresno State.

Alabama’s offense:

19th best rushing attack in the nation averaging 217 yards per game with 18 touchdowns.

Bama’s total offense is second best in the SEC at 434.8 per game.

The Tide features the 4th best passing game in the SEC averaging 226.80 yards per game.

Scoring at a rate of 37.67 points per game is 22nd best in the nation.

Alabama’s defense:

Top scoring defense in the nation allowing 7 points per game.

Third best total defense in the nation, 191.33 yards per game.

Best rushing defense in the nation by holding teams to 39.83 yards per game.

4th best pass defense in the nation limiting opponents to 151.50 yards per game.

Common opponent: Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt 30, Ole Miss 7.

Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 0.

Linebacker C.J. Mosley returns from an elbow injury suffered against Arkansas. 

Life does not get better for Houston Nutt. Ole Miss losses another one 38-7.

Florida versus No. 24 Auburn

A reoccurring theme in the SEC is quarterback play or lack thereof. Auburn head coach Gene Chizik is sticking by his struggling junior quarterback Barrett Trotter and Florida cannot keep a quarterback healthy enough to play.

Quarterbacks John Brantley and true freshman Jeff Driskel (Oviedo, Florida) both injured their ankles against Alabama. Florida head coach Will Muschamp made a game time decision to not start Driskel against LSU in favor for another true freshman quarterback, Jacoby Brissett (West Palm Beach, Florida).

The game will come down to who can stop the run. Florida has the 4th best rushing attack in the SEC (194 per game) and Auburn has the 3rd best (204 per game).

Florida’s rush defense is 32nd in the nation. Auburn’s is 103rd allowing 201.83.

Auburn and Florida did not play each other last season.

Auburn has more stability at quarterback but Florida may have more raw talent under center.

Florida holds Dyer to 115 rushing yards and Chris Rainey finds the holes to keep the Gators on the field.

Jeff Demps was limited to two carries last week in Baton Rouge due to an ankle injury. His playing time will be a game time decision.

Florida 21, Auburn 18.

Georgia versus Vanderbilt

First year head coach James Franklin has already passed expectations at Vanderbilt. He has eclipsed last year’s win total and scored a SEC conference victory against Ole Miss. More importantly the Commodores have been competitive.

The final score in their past two games may not reflect the abilities of his team, at No. 12 South Carolina 3-21 and at No. 2 Alabama 0-34, but their defense is playing tough and they are young. Franklin is laying ground work for a strong Commodore team next season if they can find any offense.

Georgia has turned their season around after two straight home losses to fifth ranked Boise State and twelfth ranked South Carolina. The Bulldogs are on a four game winning streak and tied with the Gamecocks for first place in the SEC East.

Georgia head coach Mark Richt started true freshman running back Isaiah Crowell after the South Carolina loss and the Bulldogs offense has responded.

The Bulldogs have the 4th ranked total offense in the SEC (2,435 yards) while averaging 405.80 yards per game. Crowell is fourth in the SEC in total rushing yards with 573 after seeing limited action in the first two games of the season.

Georgia’s starting quarterback Aaron Murray now has a complement to his passing abilities. Murray is third in the SEC in total passing yards with 1,327, second in passing touchdowns (13), and fourth in quarterback rating (150.2). Murray’s tendency to take a sack (SEC worst 13) and throw interceptions (6) has got to improve against the opportunistic Commodore defense.

The Commodores lead the SEC with 14 interceptions. Three of those picks have been returned for touchdowns.

Georgia has the sixth best defense in the nation.

Vanderbilt has the 117th worst offense in college football, 244.40 yards per game.

Vandy quarterback Larry Smith has missed time in the last two games due to injuries. Smith could have returned against Alabama last week but Franklin played Jordan Rodgers the rest of the game.

Georgia gets a bye next week before playing Florida in Jacksonville. The Bulldogs will not get caught up in a trap game.

Georgia has enough offense to beat Vandy’s determined group. Georgia wins 21-7.

No. 1 LSU versus Tennessee

Another SEC team, another starting quarterback injured. Tennessee’s Tyler Bray broke the thumb on his throwing hand last week against Georgia. Now LSU will face their second straight game against a quarterback making their first start of the season.

Senior quarterback Matt Simms takes over for Bray. Simms was the starter last year before injuries and solid play by Bray in the final five games of 2010 resulted in him losing his starting job.

Simms threw for 1,460 yards and eight touchdowns last season against the hardest part of Tennessee’s schedule: Oregon, Florida, LSU, Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina.

Simms almost pulled off an upset win against the Tigers last year in Baton Rouge. Simms was 12 for 23 for 121-yards passing with five sacks, no touchdowns, and zero interceptions in last year’s meeting. Their performance last season has the Vols excited about their chances this week.

The difference in last year’s Vols team and this year team is a running game. Tauren Poole has not clicked with the offensive line yet this season. Poole had 109 yards rushing against the Tigers in 2010 to pace UT’s offense.

Poole left last week’s game with an injured hamstring in the first quarter. His status for this week is a game time decision.

LSU has the fifth best defense in the nation.

Tennessee was held to negative 20 yards rushing against Georgia.

LSU escaped with a last second 16-14 win in 2010 against the Vols. Don’t look for LSU to take Tennessee lightly this year nor ruin a chance to play for the BCS National Championship by looking ahead to Auburn.

LSU methodically breaks down Tennessee for a 48-3 win. 

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College Football: Picking Every SEC Game in Week 5

The SEC rolls out another slate of BCS Championship caliber games in week five of the 2011 season. Alabama travels to the Swamp to face Florida, Arkansas plays Texas A&M in Arlington, Texas, and Georgia tries to get their season on track against Mississippi State.

No. 1 LSU welcomes Kentucky, Tennessee comes off a bye to face Buffalo, Auburn travels to No. 10 South Carolina, and Ole Miss looks for their running game at Fresno State.

Vanderbilt (3-1) has a bye week. The Commodores travel to Alabama October 8.

Alabama (4-0, 3-1) versus Florida (4-0, 1-0)

There are several key SEC match-ups this week but none more important than the outcome of the No. 3 Alabama versus No. 12 Florida game. This game should shape how the conference races in both SEC divisions play out.

An Alabama win keeps them on pace with preseason SEC West favorite LSU. A loss by Alabama puts LSU in the driver’s seat until their November 5, game against LSU in Tuscaloosa.

A Florida win keeps the Gators on pace with South Carolina in the SEC East. A loss by Florida followed by a road trip to LSU could put the Gators out of control of their own destiny for the rest of the season.

Both teams play tough defense and are committed to stopping the run. Alabama and Florida use a tandem running back rotation opposing defenses have to account for. Bama uses Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy while Florida uses Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps. The Crimson Tide averages 230.75 rushing yards per game and the Gators average 259 yards per game.

Alabama’s defense only gives up 45.75 rushing yards per game. Florida gives up 56.50.

Which team will be able to run the ball better and complete critical third down passing conversions when needed?

Both teams have a similar third down conversion rate as well; Bama 41.18, Gators 42.55.

Who wins this one in a tight matchup? Bama won last year’s game 31-6. This one goes down to the wire with the Tide winning 24-18.

Arkansas (3-1, 0-1) versus Texas A&M (3-1)

In a non-conference, but soon to be conference showdown in 2012, No. 14 Texas A&M takes on No. 18 Arkansas in the Southwest Classic.

Much will be made about this game one way or another… either A&M does not belong in the SEC by fans boycotting their acceptance into the SEC or this is a preview of things to come with an A&M victory.

Both sides are banged up on defense thus very little knowledge about either team will be gathered from this game. The Aggies could be without three starters on defense; S Steven Campbell, CB Coryell Judie, and DL Jonathan Mathis. DB Louie Swope could miss the game as well.

The Razorbacks will be without starting defensive end Tenarius Wright (arm) and possibly their other starting defensive end Jake Bequette (hamstring). Issac Maddison hurt his knee in the Alabama game but is expected to play this weekend.

The Razorback rushing attack could receive a boost if running back Broderick Green plays against the Aggies. Green tore his ACL during Arkansas spring practices and was expected to miss the rest of the season. Reports are he has been practicing for the past three weeks and is expected to take some snaps this weekend. Arkansas will need him against the Aggies 7th rated rush defense (60.33 yards per game).

The key match up is Arkansas’ passing attack (312.25 yards per game) versus Texas A&M’s passing defense (279 yards per game; ranked 109th in the nation. A&M leads the nation in total sacks (14) and sacks per game (4.67). Can Tyler Wilson avoid the rush and find receivers down field? Or will A&M’s “Sack Attack” be too much for the Razorbacks inexperienced offensive line?

Arkansas won last year 24-17. Look for Arkansas to hold on for a 28-24 win this year.

Mississippi State (2-2, 0-2) versus Georgia (2-2, 1-1)

The Mississippi State versus Georgia game pits two teams with similar disappointing starts to their seasons. Georgia had tough games against Boise State and South Carolina while MSU lost tough games to Auburn and LSU.

MSU has had injuries along their offensive line and have had difficulty replacing their linebacker unit from last season. Chris Relf did not play well against Louisiana Tech last week but did enough to secure the 26-20 overtime home win with the game winning touchdown pass.

Georgia has reversed their early season stumble with two convincing wins, one over SEC West foe Ole Miss last week 27-13 and Costal Carolina 59-0.

Georgia has had injury problems as well and has had to use walk-ons in key positions. Georgia is young and largely inexperienced. 2012 may be a breakout year for these Bulldogs but there is still hope to their 2011 season as they only have two top 25 teams left on the schedule.

Georgia’s commitment to starting true freshman Isaiah Crowell could be looked at as the turning point in their season. Crowell has responded with two 100-yard rushing games. Crowell will have to take the majority of the snaps as fellow running backs Carlton Thomas and Ken Malcome are not expected to play this weekend.

MSU OL Tobias Smith (knee, out for season) and LB Chris Hughes (disciplinary) will both be out against Georgia.

MSU won last year’s match up 24-12. Look for this one to be tight too with Georgia taking the win at home 24-17.

Kentucky (2-2, 0-1) vs. LSU (4-0, 1-0)

Kentucky travels to Death Valley for their second game straight game out of three versus a top 25 foe. The Wildcats have the unfortunate task of playing LSU after two road trips; The Tiger faithful will be excited to have the number one team in the nation back home.

Kentucky’s offense has been non-existent. The loss of WR Randall Cobb, RB Derrick Locke, WR Chris Matthews, and QB Mike Hartline has been too much for Joker Phillips to replace; understandably so.

LSU’s defense has been lights out as needed against top tier offenses. Their offense has steadily improved under the direction of quarterback Jarrett Lee.

Perhaps the biggest question out of the Bayou Bengal camp is what will Les Miles do with Jordan Jefferson?

Jefferson has been reinstated by LSU after Baton Rouge police lowered their charges to simple battery against Jefferson. Will Les integrate Jefferson back into the offense and eventually place him back into the lineup as a starter. Or will Miles keep a great thing going with Lee? Both players are seniors and have a lot left to prove to NFL scouts. A two headed quarterback rotation could spell disaster for the Tigers.

Kentucky has to hope they can catch LSU looking forward to next week’s game versus University of Florida otherwise the pairing of LSU’s 14th ranked scoring defense (14.25 points per game) against Kentucky’s 107th ranked scoring offense (17 points per game) will get ugly quick.

LSU wins this one before halftime: 42-10.

Auburn (3-1, 1-0) vs. South Carolina (4-0, 2-0)

Auburn rolls into South Carolina after an adjustment game against Florida Atlantic in week four. Auburn won easily (30-14) but serious questions remain about their defense.

South Carolina’s offense was shutdown for the first time this year against an upstart Vanderbilt team. The Gamecocks defense bailed the offense out as USC won 21-3.

Auburn and South Carolina’s offense are good at filling up the score board, 34.25 and 36.50 points per game respectively. The game will come down to either team’s defensive ability to stop the other team’s high potent offensive attacks. South Carolina gives up 27.75 points per game to Auburn’s 31 points per game.

Not much separates these teams by their schedules to date.

South Carolina’s rush defense gives up 137.75 yards per game, including a tough game against Navy’s rushing attack. Auburn gives up 226.50 yards per game; 112th worst in FBS.

This one is a shootout 42-31: Marcus Lattimore and Michael Dyer will put on a running back clinic. Lattimore gets the better of Dyer as South Carolina gets the win because they are playing at home and they can stop the run better than Auburn.

Mississippi (1-3, 0-2) vs. Fresno State (2-2)

Houston Nutt needs this win and boy does he need it badly if the Rebels have any hope to make a bowl game this season. The Rebels get a bye next week and then start the heart of their SEC schedule with Alabama and Arkansas coming to Oxford then back to back road trips to Auburn and Kentucky before finishing the season at home against LSU and at Mississippi State.

Fresno State has played an unbalanced schedule to date. The Bulldogs started the season off losing two road games to California 36-21 and Nebraska 42-29. Then Fresno State beat North Dakota 27-22 at home and won at Idaho 48-24. They have taken care of lesser competition to date.

Now Ole Miss comes to town, a team that beat them 55-38 in Oxford last year. Which team is Ole Miss this season, the lesser competition or a BCS Conference school?

Fresno State gives up 31 points per game while Ole Miss gives up 23.75 points.

Fresno State averages 31.25 points per game to Ole Miss’ 18.75 per game.

If Fresno State is able to limit the Rebels running game, which only averages 91.80 yards per game, the Bulldogs should walk away with another victory against a BCS power conference team for the fifth year in a row.

Ole Miss could be blessed with the return of their top two tailbacks, Brandon Bolden and Enrique Davis. Their status is a game time decision.

Fresno State will be without RB A.J. Ellis, DB Zak Hill, and OL Matt Hunt.

Ole Miss sneaks by 24-14.

Buffalo (1-3) versus Tennessee (2-1, 0-1)

Tennessee welcomes the Bulls to Knoxville after a bye week spent fixing offensive line issues and trying to limit big plays given up by their defense.

Tennessee had a frustrating 33-23 loss to Florida at the Swamp before their bye. Perhaps even more frustrating was the loss of wide receiver Justin Hunter for the season to a torn ACL in the Florida game. Hunter was Tyler Bray’s top target and a beast for opposing defensive coordinators to have to deal with.

Tennessee’s tune-up game against Buffalo is much needed before going on a brutal four game SEC stretch that includes Georgia, LSU, Alabama, and South Carolina. Look for head coach Derek Dooley to give running backs Tauren Poole and Marlin Lane as many touches as he can to get the Vols rushing attack on track before their four-game October stretch.

Tennessee wins easily 35-7.

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