SEC College Football Preview: Predicting Outcomes for Every SEC Game in Week 11

Last week the SEC accomplished a feat they had never done before, they gave college football fans two games in the same week featuring four top ten teams. This week the excitement is not as great on a national level but there is plenty of intrigue as mid-level teams continue to fight for bowl eligibility.

The matchup of the weekend pits cross-divisional teams No. 24 Auburn at No. 14 Georgia. 5-4 Florida travels to No. 15 South Carolina in hopes of becoming bowl eligible and 4-5 Vanderbilt hosts 4-5 Kentucky in a must win game for both teams.

LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas all play non-ranked teams with Bama traveling to Mississippi State. No surprise that each team’s fan base is praying for a shocking loss for the other’s programs.

Ole Miss welcomes Louisiana Tech in the first of three farewell games for soon to be departing head coach Houston Nutt.

Auburn versus Georgia

The Auburn versus Georgia game will pit the strength of each team against the other, running the ball. Auburn holds an edge here with sophomore running back Michael Dyer.

Dyer is second in the SEC in total rushing yards with 989 and third in rushing touchdowns having collected nine scores.

Bulldog true freshman running back Isaiah Crowell is sixth in the SEC in total rushing yards with 689 despite missing Georgia’s last game due to a suspension.

The pivotal point between the two teams will come down to quarterback play. The edge swings back in Georgia’s favor here.

Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray is second in the SEC in total passing yards having thrown for 2,060. His 23 passing touchdowns leads the SEC. Murray’s eight interceptions is second in the conference to departed Gamecock quarterback Stephen Garcia.

Tiger quarterback Clint Moseley will make his third career start against a Bulldog defense ranked 7th in the FBS. Moseley threw for 160 yards, his season high, against Ole Miss two weeks ago. He finished the game 12-15 with four passing touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Auburn is coming off a bye thus they should be rested and ready. But Georgia should get some quality contributors back on the field this weekend too when wide receiver Malcolm Mitchell and running back Carlton Thomas return from an injury and suspension respectively.

Between the two teams Auburn is more battle tested having played six teams currently ranked or ranked at one time during the season to Georgia’s four.

Auburn has the 75th rated defense in the country to Georgia’s 7th ranked defense.

Georgia has the momentum riding a seven game winning streak with a solid opportunity to wrap up the SEC East division title.

Final Score

Georgia 28, Auburn 21

Florida versus South Carolina

Revenge game, new rivalry game, whatever you want to call it these two teams will get after each other come Saturday. Both teams have season goals and bragging rights riding on the outcome.

If South Carolina wins they stay alive in the race for the SEC East divisional title. Should they lose, Georgia wins the SEC East and the Gamecocks will have to fight for a better bowl bid and/or play spoiler to in-state rival Clemson during the last weekend of the season.

A win by 5-4 Florida makes the Gators bowl eligible and takes some of the heat off of first year coach Will Muschamp and his infamous offensive coordinator Charlie Weis.

Gamecock quarterback Connor Shaw is expected to play this week after taking a vicious hit from Arkansas defensive end Jake Bequette in last week’s game. Shaw was suffering from concussion-like symptoms after the game.

Florida is also expecting their starting quarterback John Brantley to play after injuring himself against Vanderbilt last week as well.

Florida’s defense is stingy against the run which is what the Gamecocks need to do well in order to beat the Gators. Against the Hogs the Gamecocks were held to 79 total rushing yards.

The Gamecocks entered the Arkansas game only allowing 135.88 passing yards per game. Quarterback Tyler Wilson piled up 299 passing yards with two scores against the vaunted Gamecock defense. What can Brantley do against the same defense especially if safety DeVonte Holloman is not cleared to play for USC?

The Gators are hoping senior running back Chris Rainey will return to the lineup after injuring his ankle against Georgia.

The wheels seem to be coming off for Steve Spurrier and his Gamecock team. Can he keep his team together for three more regular season games?

Florida becomes bowl eligible on Saturday.

Final Score

Florida 24, South Carolina 21

Kentucky versus Vanderbilt

Looking over the SEC schedules before the season started the Wildcats vs. the Commodores game is not one of the games most fans circled. Yet the game holds heavy importance for both teams.

4-5 Kentucky is riding a five-game bowl appearance streak with three games left to play. 4-5 Vanderbilt is looking to go bowling for only the fifth time in the team’s history and the first time since 2008.

Head coach Joker Phillips is in his second year with the Wildcats. James Franklin is a first year head coach for the Commodores. Both coaches are trying to build a solid SEC program and need a win this weekend to keep their bowl hopes alive.

Phillips will call upon true freshman Maxwell Smith (Granada Hills, California) for the third game in a row to lead his team. Smith has played well in the place of injured quarterback Morgan Newton. Newton is healthy enough to play this week but will serve as the team’s second string quarterback.

The missing element from Kentucky’s offense this year has been a passing attack. Smith threw for 283 yards on 19 completions with two touchdowns against Ole Miss last week igniting hope for Wildcat fans that they can finish the season strong.

With the passing game elevated the running game has responded as well. CoShik Williams had a game-high 111 rushing yards on 25 carries finding the end zone twice against the Rebels.

Vanderbilt has continued their maturation process this season. The Commodores were a couple of plays away from possibly beating Georgia, Arkansas, and Florida over their past four games. Franklin’s young team has not learned how to win yet. The SEC East better watch out for this team next season.

Jordan Rodgers continues to impress after taking over for senior quarterback Larry Smith. Rodgers has started the last three games and finished last week’s game against Florida with 297 yards passing, two touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Commodore running back Zac Stacey was held to 23 rushing yards after back-to-back 100-yard performances against Army and Arkansas.

The game will come down to which defense can make the other team’s offense make mistakes. This heavily favors Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt has the 30th ranked defense in the nation despite not having much support from the offense for most of the season.

Vanderbilt keeps their bowl hopes alive.

Final Score

Vanderbilt 28, Kentucky 17

Alabama versus Mississippi State

After last week’s “game of the century” most college football fans want to see how Bama will respond. Will they have a let-down game or will they come out and prove a point by punishing MSU? Either way LSU and Arkansas will be interested in the final outcome as their season’s final outcome could be made easier with a Bama loss.

On paper this game is a mismatch heavily favoring Alabama

Mississippi State allows 349 yards of total offense per game. Alabama is the top ranked defense holding teams to 187 total yards.

Alabama has the best rush defense in the country averaging 56.33 yards per game, Mississippi State 161.22.

Alabama averages 214 rushing yards per game, MSU 187 yards.

5-4 Mississippi State hosts Bama this week, travels to Arkansas next week, and hosts Ole Miss on the final weekend of the season. This is a tough road to walk down for head coach Dan Mullen trying to get his team to the all important six win plateau.

Final Score

Alabama 38, MSU 7

Louisiana Tech versus Ole Miss

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are one of the more intriguing teams in college football. They easily could have won the four games they lost, Southern Miss 19-17, Houston 34-35, and Mississippi State 26-20 and be undefeated going into the stretch run of their Western Athletic Conference schedule. As it is the Bulldogs need this win against Ole Miss to become bowl eligible.

The game is not without some controversy as embattled Ole Miss head coach Houston Nutt resigned on Monday which will be effective come November 26. After losing 12-straight SEC games how will his team respond this week? Will they rally around Nutt or have they already given up on the season?

The Bulldogs are on a four-game winning streak. Look for them to shock a SEC team on the road.

Louisiana Tech 34, Ole Miss 28

Western Kentucky versus LSU

It’s the top ranked team in the nation with one of the best defenses in the nation going up against a 5-4 Sun Belt Conference team that lost 14-3 to Kentucky during the first week of the season.

LSU sleepwalks through this one.

LSU 48, WKU 6

Tennessee versus Arkansas

Tennessee looks to do the near impossible this weekend by knocking off No. 8 Arkansas on the road.

Arkansas responded well to their home surroundings last weekend after playing four of five games on the road. The Hogs easily defeated then No. 10 South Carolina 44-28.

The Vols are coming off a feel good win over Middle Tennessee State, 24-0.

Tennessee’s defense is SEC caliber but the offense is not.

There is an outside chance that Tyler Bray may return for this game. At 4-5 Dooley may sit his starter in hopes of winning their final two games to become bowl eligible. Why risk an injury to Bray with post season hopes hinging on his play during the final two games?

Arkansas’ passing attack has remained solid all year long behind the play of quarterback Tyler Wilson. Wilson leads the SEC in passing yards and his top target, Jarius Wright, leads the SEC in receiving yards with 812 and receiving touchdowns with nine.

The one shining offensive production for the Vols has been wide receiver Da’Rick Rogers. Rogers has assumed the No. 1 wide receiver role after Justin Hunter tore his ACL earlier in the season. Rogers is second in the SEC in receiving yards with 780 and tied for second in receiving touchdowns with seven.

Hogs win their sixth game in a row in front of a happy Reynolds Razorback Stadium crowd.

Arkansas 45, Tennessee 17

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SEC College Football: Tennessee Travels to No. 8 Arkansas

If the lyrics to “Rocky Top” were a prayer to the football gods, University of Tennessee fans would be singing day and night this week to help their Vols in a showdown against No. 8 Arkansas.

Tennessee head coach Derek Dooley may be living on a hope and a prayer to keep his team’s bowl hopes alive. After making two straight bowl appearances, 4-5 Tennessee is in desperate need of two wins in their final three games to reach the six win plateau needed for post season play. Playing Arkansas on the road does not help their cause.

Tennessee has been without starting sophomore quarterback Tyler Bray since October 8, when he broke his thumb against Georgia. Bray tweeted earlier in the week that he would be back for the Arkansas game but Dooley was not optimistic in his weekly news conference about Bray’s availability.

In Bray’s place senior backup quarterback Matt Simms was named the starter. Against improbable odds Simms had to face No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama in back-to-back games. After a poor showing in both games, Dooley replaced Simms with true freshman Justin Worley (Rock Hill, South Carolina) as part of an ongoing youth movement in Knoxville.

In Worley’s first start against South Carolina he finished the game 10 of 26 for 105 yards passing with two interceptions, playing like a true freshman. Against Middle Tennessee Worley settled in for 291 passing yards on 23 completions in 32 attempts.

Not helping Worley’s cause is senior running back Tauren Poole. Poole production has been disappointing playing behind a young offensive line. Over the last two games Poole rushed 18 times for 38 yards against USC and the Blue Raiders held Poole to 13 rushing yards on 11 attempts. His two rushing touchdowns last week doubled his season total to four.

For the season Poole is ninth in the SEC in rushing with 513 total yards but his 3.5 yards per carry average tell a different story. His lone 100-yard rushing game came against University of Buffalo after a bye week in Tennessee’s fourth game of 2011.

Looking for a way to spark Tennessee’s limited offense, Dooley started running the Wildcat offense with freshman Jaron Toney against the Blue Raiders. Toney rushed 19 times for 52 yards. True freshman Marlin Lane (Daytona Beach, Florida) returned to full-game action last week rushing for 37 yards on 9 attempts.

Arkansas welcomed the friendly confines of Reynolds Razorback Stadium last week when they hosted South Carolina after spending four of their previous five games on the road. The Razorbacks had a somewhat sloppy yet dominating performance over the Gamecocks.

The Hogs accumulated 435 total yards of offense while only committing one turnover against a Gamecock defense that entered the game ranked sixth in college football. The offensive line gelled in pass blocking situations limiting the Gamecock defense to one sack. With the extra time to throw, Razorback quarterback Tyler Wilson came one passing yard shy of 300.

The Hog running attack gained momentum again behind Dennis Johnson’s game high 86 yards rushing on 15 attempts. Broderick Green and Ronnie Wingo Jr. both added rushing touchdowns in route to amassing 136 total rushing yards.  

The offensive line still has room for improvement in short-yardage and goal line situations. Twice in the fourth quarter the Razorbacks failed to convert rushing attempts on fourth and one. Both attempts saw big back Broderick Green, straight-up and down runner, stopped for a loss.

The Razorback defense did a good job of containing the Gamecock offense and true freshman running back Brandon Wilds. Wilds gained 21 rushing yards on 10 attempts.

The Hogs have continued to show a weakness at covering the opposing quarterback when he chooses to run on a busted pass play. The slow recognition of the safeties and linebackers has kept teams like Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina in contention instead of stopping drives and limiting scores.

USC quarterback Connor Shaw rushed for two touchdowns against the Hogs last week extending a three-game streak of rushing touchdowns allowed by the opposing quarterback; Jordan Rodgers, Vanderbilt, and Randall Mackey, Ole Miss.

The final 44-28 score against the No. 10 Gamecocks was not indicative of the performance the Razorbacks displayed. The Hogs dropped two would be touchdown passes and Zack Hocker missed two field goals in uncharacteristic fashion.

Inside the Tennessee vs. Arkansas Game

Arkansas features the 23rd best total offense in the nation averaging 450.89 yards per game with the 15th best scoring offense scoring 38 points per game.

Tennessee has the 31st best defense in college football limiting teams to 343 total yards per game.

The unfortunate problem for the Vols is their lack of offensive production. The defense is SEC capable but they tend to wear down in the second half due to time on the field and lack of depth.

Derek Dooley’s offense sputters without Tyler Bray under center. Practicing the Wildcat against another team was smart but also a waste of a surprise option against the Hogs. Arkansas will prepare for running back Jaron Toney lining up as the Vols quarterback.

With the return of key injured defensive players slowly matriculating back onto the field, the Hogs have increased their total defense ranking from a lowly 64th in the nation going into the Ole Miss game to 55th best after USC. Look for the Hogs to gain more ground in this statistical category on Saturday.

Tennessee’s scoring offense is the 90th worst in FBS averaging 23 points per game.

The Hogs rush defense has steadily improved as well. Once ranked 95th in the nation, they have improved to 79th best/worst in FBS dropping the oppositions average rushing yards per game to 176 yards per game instead of 189 per game just a few weeks ago.

Tennessee does a great job of limiting the opposition on kickoff returns holding teams to 18.31 yards per return. Derrick Brodus will not be in an Arkansas fraternity house waiting for a phone call from Dooley this weekend. If starting kicker Michael Palardy is not fully healthy the Hog’s kickoff returner Dennis Johnson will give Tyler Wilson excellent starting field position all night. The Razorbacks enter the game with the 10th best kickoff return game in FBS.

Tyler Wilson continues to perform week after week for the Hogs. His 291.78 passing yards per game is 11th best in FBS. Wilson trails last year’s starter Ryan Mallett by 1,243 total passing yards on the season. With four, possibly five, games left to play, Wilson could eclipse Mallett’s 2010 record setting numbers if he averages 311 yards per game over the next four contests.

Tennessee allows 187 passing yards per game. USC had the third best pass defense in the nation holding teams to 136 passing yards per game.

Prediction

The Razorbacks seemed rejuvenated playing at home last week. They have two more games at home before traveling to Baton Rouge to take on No. 1 LSU.

Head coach Bobby Petrino appears to have his team starting to hit all cylinders again going down the back stretch of the season. Arkansas is still coming together as a team. The defense is starting to play better, the kicking game is solid, and the running game is improving. They take another step closer this week.

Regardless if Bray, Worley, or Simms is under center for the Vols whoever will have a tough time keeping pace with Wilson and the Razorback offense.

Petrino has not gone for the jugular on any team in conference this year. He also has not abandoned the run, for better or for worse, in late game situations. His coaching tactics is starting to pay dividends regardless of the style points he may have loss with AP voters and some fans. The Hogs will need some form of a running attack come November 25.

Should the Hogs hold a commanding lead by halftime look for Dooley to get more playing time to his younger players, as has been the case for the Vols most of the season. Resting some of his starters in the second half against Arkansas in preparation for their final two games may seem like poor sportsmanship but too much is riding on the line for Tennessee’s program and Dooley’s recruiting to miss out on a bowl this year.

The Vols expect Bray to be back for their final two games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky. His presence in the lineup would be an emotional lift for his team this weekend, but not enough of a lift to affect the outcome of the game.

Tennessee may attempt to blitz Wilson more than the Gamecocks did. Look for quick strike pass plays instead of play-action passes once Vols defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox tips his hand.

Petrino will keep the same game plan he has for weeks. Spread the opposition’s secondary out, drag his receivers across, get one-on-one situations with his backs on the wings, and keep pounding the ball on short yardage plays until the backs and offensive line click.

Final Score

Arkansas 45, Tennessee 17

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SEC College Football Preview: No. 8 Arkansas on Upset Alert vs. Vanderbilt

The past two weeks have been full of upsets in college football. Powerhouse teams including Oklahoma, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Illinois, and Michigan have all been shocked by lesser or non-ranked teams. This weekend’s match up between the eighth ranked Razorbacks versus the Commodores in Nashville has all the makings of a classic trap game and a potential upset.

Arkansas is coming off a 29-24 come from behind victory against SEC West rival Ole Miss. A game the Hogs were favored by more than two touchdowns. The Razorbacks were down 17-0 in the second quarter but closed the gap to 17-7 before halftime.

In the second half Arkansas defensive coordinator Willy Robinson made the adjustments necessary to slow down the Rebels rushing attack. The Razorback defense tightened up and only allowed a last minute four-yard touchdown pass by Randall Mackey to Donte Moncrief in the second half.

The upstart Commodores have shown signs of life under first year head coach James Franklin. To date Vanderbilt has won as many games this year as they had in the previous two years combined making Franklin a successful hire.

Vanderbilt is coming off a 44-21 ego boosting win over Army. The Commodores rushed for 344 total yards while new their new starting quarterback, Jordan Rodgers, threw for 186 yards. Rodgers also contributed 96 rushing yards on 18 attempts.

Junior running back Zac Stacy had a career high 198 yards rushing in the win over Army. Stacey’s 198 yards rushing would be the third-best single game effort in school history.

More important for the Commodores is the momentum they have built over the past two games. Against the Georgia Bulldogs they pulled within five points with 9:59 left in the fourth quarter but could never find the end zone to pull off the upset victory.

With a showdown against No. 14 South Carolina looming overhead, will the Razorbacks get caught overlooking upset minded Vanderbilt?

Key In-game Matchups

Arkansas passing attack versus Vanderbilt’s pass defense

Arkansas has the 9th best passing attack in FBS. The Razorbacks average 321.86 yards per game with starting quarterback Tyler Wilson averaging 287.29 of those yards.

Vanderbilt has the 25^th ranked passing defense in the nation. Opponents are throwing for an average of 191.29 yards per game.

Vandy’s defense has picked off 15 passes this season. Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino and Tyler Wilson will have to respect the Commodores competent secondary entering the game.

Vanderbilt’s rushing attack versus Arkansas’ rush defense

The Commodores are piling up 159.86 rush yards per game. Arkansas allows 183.29 rushing yards per game, ranked 88^th in the nation.

Zac Stacey is 6th best in the SEC with 579 total rushing yards.

In his past two games against Georgia and Army, Jordan Rodgers is averaging 88 rushing yards per game.

The Razorbacks have been susceptible to giving up big rushing days to opponents this season. Ole Miss ran for 151 yards, Auburn 291, Texas A&M 381, and Alabama 197.

Inside the Numbers

Vanderbilt has the 23rd ranked total defense in the nation limiting opponents to 323.86 yards per game.

Arkansas has the 64th ranked total defense in the nation allowing 386.71 yards per game.

Vanderbilt has the 33rd best scoring defense in the nation limiting teams to an average of 21.57 points per game.

Arkansas has the 34th best scoring defense in the nation limiting teams to 21.71 points per game.

Arkansas’ pass defense is 36th in the nation allowing a respectable 203.43 yards per game.

Vanderbilt’s rush defense is 45th in the nation stopping opponents at 132.57 yards per game.

Vanderbilt’s passing offense averages 140.14 passing yards per game, 111th worst in college football.

Arkansas averages 37.71 points per game.

Vanderbilt averages 24.86 points per game.

Analysis

The Commodore defense has played at a high SEC level all season. Their offense has been more than disappointing.

Starting senior Vanderbilt quarterback Larry Smith was taking a beating behind his offensive line having been sacked 16 times; second most in the SEC. Smith did not finish the South Carolina or the Alabama games due to various hits and injuries he had sustained. Backup quarterback Jordan Rodgers has been sacked twice in his place.

Much has been made about Jordan Rodgers being made the starting quarterback for Vanderbilt; the enthusiasm of the team with Rodgers under center and his bloodline get the headlines. He’s the brother of Green Bay Packers starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers two starts have resulted in a moral victory against Georgia and a blowout win against Army.

The Razorbacks have been waiting for their running game to show up in 2011. Starting running back Ronnie Wingo Jr. was not clicking with his offensive line early in the season.

Junior running back Dennis Johnson, an All-American in 2009 as kickoff returner, missed the 2010 season with a bowel injury and the first two games of 2011 with a hamstring injury. Johnson now appears to be the emerging go-to running back for Bobby Petrino.

Against Troy and Alabama in weeks three and four, Johnson had four and three rushing attempts respectively for a total of 17 yards. In his last three games against Texas A&M, Auburn, and Ole Miss he is averaging 85.33 rushing yards per game highlighted by his 160 yard performance versus the Rebels.

Inside the Teams

Moral victory aside, Vanderbilt choked when the opportunity to beat Georgia presented itself. In three possessions after they pulled within the final score of 33-28, Vandy went three and out with a fumble on the third down of their first possession, threw an interception on their second series, then blocked a Georgia punt but could not score on three plays from Georgia’s 20 yard line to win the game with 15 seconds left.

Rodgers had a really bad throwing performance against Georgia. He was 4 of 19 for 47 yards with one interception. His saving grace was the 80 rushing yards he picked up.

Against an Army team that came into the game with a 2-4 record with a signature win over Northwestern, Rodgers finished the game 10 of 27 for 186 yards passing with one score and two picks. Again, Rodgers saving grace was the 96 yards he gained on 18 attempts.

Rodgers is not a running quarterback. Rodgers is a quarterback that runs because he is not comfortable with his receivers or in the pocket.

The Razorbacks running game has shown signs of life. A balanced attack is something Arkansas and Petrino needs in upcoming games against South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi State, and most importantly LSU.

Against Auburn and Ole Miss Petrino took the air out of the passing attack to develop his running game against SEC teams instead of his scout teams. Petrino will let Wilson throw when needed but pound the ball with his running backs as often as he can until his line and running backs get into sync.

The Razorback defense has been criticized for their play in the first half of their games. Much of the blame should land on the offense. Against A&M in the first quarter the Razorbacks average time of possession was 1:28. The defense gave up 35 first half points, 14 coming in the first quarter.

In a blowout win against Auburn the Razorback offense held the ball for an average of 2:26 through five first quarter possessions. The result was one touchdown for the Hogs and 14 Tiger points. Arkansas finished the half with 21 points and put pressure on Auburn’s offense the rest of the game as the defense buckled down in the second half.

Against Ole Miss the Hogs held the ball for a total of 3 minutes and four seconds in the first quarter which led to a 17-0 first half deficit.

How is the defense supposed to make in-game adjustments when they are on the field the entire first half?

Petrino’s offense will always have a quick strike element to it. Willy Robinson or whoever is the next Razorback defensive coordinator under Petrino will have to live with that fact. But Petrino’s offense has been slow to start this season making life more difficult than necessary. Petrino will try to find the remedy against the Commodores.

Look for the Hogs to try to jump on Vanderbilt early to establish their tone for the rest of the game and perhaps the rest of the season.

Prediction

The Commodores have not faced a passing offense like the Razorbacks this season.

Wilson opens it up for another 250-300 yard passing effort with a couple of scores before being relieved by backup quarterback Brandon Mitchell.

Zac Stacey had rushed for a total of 381 yards in six games before facing Army. His 63.5 yards per game average will not scare Arkansas. Look for Stacey to finish above his average per game but get his yards later in the game.

The Razorbacks ground game will grind away at the Commodores defensive line in a scrimmage game against SEC caliber players. Practice makes perfect.

Vanderbilt will keep the game tight but have little luck moving the ball against the Hogs throughout the game.

Rodgers will keep running to move the chains and find a couple of holes in the Razorback defense late in the game.

Arkansas has not received the credit due for beating their in-conference rival Ole Miss and former head coach Houston Nutt last week. Nutt had his team coached up and up playing at a higher level than they have all season.

Rodgers completed 21 percent of his passes against Georgia and 37 percent against Army. His ability in the pocket will not click against the Hogs.

Once Willy Robinson figures out Franklin’s offensive game plan and Rodgers in-game tendencies, he will stop their offense completely.

The Hogs are getting used to taking their opponents best shots. The role of favorite instead of underdog has been a slow transition for Razorback players but the team has responded well.

Arkansas takes another tough shot from Vanderbilt but wins comfortably getting separation in the third quarter.

The Hogs do not get caught looking ahead for next week’s game versus No. 14 South Carolina.

Final Score

31-10

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SEC College Football Preview: Can Ole Miss Beat No. 10 Arkansas?

The 2011 college football season has not been kind to Houston Nutt. The Rebels are 2-4 overall and 0-3 in the Southeast Conference with three ranked teams left to play on their schedule and the annual Egg Bowl showdown.

Coming off a lopsided 52-7 loss to second ranked Alabama, Ole Miss must host tenth ranked Arkansas this weekend. Can Mississippi beat the Razorbacks?

Through all of the difficulty Houston Nutt and his team have endured during the 2011 season they still have a chance to beat Arkansas because Nutt likes coaching against the Razorbacks, there is talent on campus, and a win against the tenth ranked team in the country could salvage their season.

Ole Miss has had their share of suspensions, injuries, and shuffling of quarterbacks causing the offense to lack continuity. More importantly they have lacked production. The Rebels rank 117th in the nation in total offense out of 120 FBS teams by averaging 251.83 yards per game.

Senior running back Brandon Bolden has underperformed due to injuries and playing behind an offensive line that has not been the force Mississippi fans expected beginning the season. Bolden has rushed 23 times for 105 yards on the season after posting 976 total rushing yards in 2010 with an average of 6.0 yards per carry.

The rushing duties have been left to sophomore scat back Jeff Scott. Scott leads the team in rushing yards compiling 361 yards with six touchdowns.

Entering the Arkansas game the Rebel rushing attack is eleventh in the SEC with 606 total yards in six games; barely averaging 100 rushing yards per game.

Barry Bruneti, Zack Stoudt, nor Randall Mackey has been productive under center for Mississippi. Ole Miss is 10th in the SEC in total passing yards with 905 total yards. The combined four passing touchdowns ranks last in the SEC. Their touchdown to interception ratio is 1-2 having thrown eight interceptions this season.

The Alabama game proved to be more than a loss on the scoreboard for Ole Miss. Two of their players, senior defensive end Wayne Dorsey and senior corner back Marcus Temple, were lost to season-ending injuries. Temple fractured his ankle during the first half and Dorsey broke his arm in the fourth quarter. Both players were team captains for the Rebels.

Safety Charles Sawyer left the game with a back injury against Alabama and did not return to the game. He is not expected to miss game time and could see action at a corner position against Arkansas on Saturday.

To make matters more difficult for the already short-handed Ole Miss squad, they cut ties with troubled junior wide receiver Melvin Harris on Monday. The dismissal comes a couple of days after Nutt suspended running back Brandon Bolden, wide receiver Philander Moore, center A.J. Hawkins, and guard Alex Washington for violation of team rules for the Alabama game.

Reasons for Ole Miss fans to believe

During Nutt’s 10 years as head coach at Arkansas his must win game was beating his old college coach and mentor Lou Holtz when Holtz was the head coach at South Carolina. Nutt was 7-3 against the Gamecocks while at Arkansas. Now his must win game is beating the Razorbacks, a team he currently holds a 2-1 record against.

Nutt has proven to be a great motivator throughout his coaching career. He routinely wins games when his team is not favored to win. Most famously in 2007 when Arkansas beat top ranked LSU in three overtimes 50-48. With Ole Miss, Nutt’s unranked 2008 team beat the eventual national champion Florida Gators in the Swamp 31-30.

In 2008 Nutt knew the strengths and weaknesses of his former players and used that knowledge to his advantage. Struggling with a 2-4 overall record, much like this season, he took the Rebels into Fayetteville and won 23-21. The win ignited Ole Miss eventually leading to a 9-4 season culminating with a Cotton Bowl victory.

In 2009 Nutt waited until the seventh game of the season to unleash running back Dexter McCluster against the Hogs. McCluster finished the game with career-highs in rushing yards with 123 and receiving yards with 137 with one touchdown.

During the game the rested McCluster appeared to be a step ahead of everyone else on the field as he was rarely used before the Razorback matchup.

Former Mississippi quarterback Jevan Snead also set a career high in passing yards against the Razorbacks with 332 in 2009.

The game was not without controversy when the officiating crew was suspended after several bad calls that went against the Razorbacks.

In 2010 Bobby Petrino held the wild card with running back Knile Davis. Davis slowly asserted himself as the Razorback’s leading rusher three games prior to the Arkansas versus Ole Miss showdown. Davis finished the game with the first 100-yard rushing game of the 2010 season for the Razorbacks. He rushed for 176-yards and three touchdowns.

Which Ole Miss players could be the breakout player against the Hogs this season?

The Rebels have had three consecutive recruiting classes ranked in the top 20 per Rivals.com. The 2008 class was a ranked a respectable 29th. The talent is there to play against the Razorbacks.

True freshman Nickolas Brassell (Batesville, Mississippi) could make a difference for the Rebels. Nickolas played a reported 30 snaps on offense and 30 on defense for Ole Miss against Bama. He finished the game with four catches for 104 yards and five tackles.

Another true freshman, Tobias Singleton (Madison, Mississippi), is starting to make a name for himself as a kick returner. Against the Tide he had five returns for 131-total return yards.

Watch out for the four previously suspended Rebel players; Bolden, Moore, Hawkins, and Washington. The timing of their suspensions could not have been better for those players.

Nutt’s decision to rest or suspend key players before a personal game against Arkansas is not out of the realm of questioning.

Key in-game matchups

Ole Miss running attack versus Arkansas run defense

Look for Ole Miss to run their version of the Wildcat offense, the Wild Rebel, early and often. Arkansas will have to limit big play opportunities on the corners.

The Hogs gave true freshman Tevin Mitchell (Mansfield, Texas) his first start at corner against Auburn. Greg Gatson got his second career start at corner against Auburn.

Mitchell was out of position against Auburn that led to a 55-yard Michael Dyer touchdown run. Ole Miss will look to exploit their inexperience if possible.

The Razorback defense could benefit from the bye week with the return of starting cornerbacks Isaac Madison, Darius Winston, and defensive lineman Robert Thomas from injuries. Arkansas defensive coordinator Willy Robinson may rest his banged up players if the game dictates that scenario.

The Razorback rushing attack versus the Rebels rush defense

Look for the Hogs to establish a running game against Ole Miss to set up their play action passing attack. Since the second quarter of the Arkansas versus Texas A&M game the Hogs have ran the ball effectively. Against Auburn they ran for 171 yards.

Bobby Petrino’s running game came to life this time last year. If the Hogs can find balance between their established passing game and their budding running game, they will be tough to beat for the rest of the season.

Arkansas wide receiver Joe Adams could receive a couple more carries against the Rebels. Adams broke a 92-yard touchdown run against Auburn. His speed and ability in the open field gives the Razorbacks an added dimension to their running game.

Inside the Numbers

Arkansas offense: 39.17 points per game, 17th in the nation

Ole Miss offense: 20 points per game, 103rd in the nation

Arkansas total offense: 466.17 yards per game, 23rd in the nation

Ole Miss total offense: 251.83 yards per game, 117th in the nation

Arkansas scoring defense: 21.33 points per game, 34th in the nation

Ole Miss scoring defense: 29.17, 80th in the nation

Arkansas total defense: 389.50 per game, 64th in the nation

Ole Miss total defense: 442.83 per game, 106th in the nation

Arkansas rush defense: 188.67 yards per game, 95th in the nation

Ole Miss rush defense: 225.67 rushing yards per game, 115th in the nation

Arkansas pass defense: 200.83 yards per game, 33rd in the nation

Ole Miss pass defense: 217.17 yards per game, 56th in the nation

3rd down conversion defense

Arkansas: 34.41 percent, 37th best in the nation

Ole Miss: 46.34 percent, 101st worst in the nation

Analysis

Houston Nutt will throw everything at Arkansas including the kitchen sink to try and win this game. Nutt’s back is up against the wall and a victory over Arkansas could take some heat off of his seat and change the season around in Oxford as it did in 2008.

Ole Miss offensive coordinator David Lee will have a couple of trick plays or misdirection plays for the Hogs.

Nutt will have his team fired up for this game.

Ole Miss came out of the gate against Bama scoring first. The 72-yard drive was highlighted by a 59-yard pass from Mackey to Brassell with Jeff Scott scoring on a one-yard run. Six possessions against the Tide were three-and-out or less.

The Rebels did not have sustaining drives until the second half when the Tide had removed their starting units.

Arkansas better be ready to stop the Wildcat. The Hogs defense saw Auburn’s version of the Wildcat before their bye. Can they stop the Rebels’ version?

Ole Miss is short handed on defense with two starters out and a weak pass defense. The Rebels will have to improve upon their 10 total sacks on the season to keep Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson out of rhythm if possible.

Arkansas has been short handed with injuries. Coming off a bye week with no ranked opponent looming overhead, the Razorbacks will be fresh and ready for Ole Miss. No trap game for the Hogs.

The Hogs will rely on the pass to help the running game and put pressure on Ole Miss as needed. The Hogs lead the SEC in passing yards and are ranked 8th in the nation in passing offense with 2,021 total yards.

Ole Miss packed the stadium last week with 61,792 in attendance when Alabama came to town. That was the fourth-largest crowd at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium for an Ole Miss football game.

By proximity, Oxford is the closest SEC school to Fayetteville. The Razorback nation travels well. Look for another sell-out crowd this weekend.

All-Time Series History

Arkansas 31 wins, Ole Miss 25, 1 Tie.

Last Meeting: October 23, 2010

Arkansas 38, Ole Miss 24

Outcome

Ole Miss will try to make it interesting with their rushing option attack. Arkansas has been susceptible to trick plays.

Ole Miss will keep it close initially but the Razorback passing attack will be too much for the Rebels.

The Rebels will score one special teams touchdown on a return.

Petrino has been embarrassed twice by Nutt in 2008 and 2009. Don’t look for it to happen again with a top ten ranking on the line, a possible share of the SEC West title, and a possible BCS bowl berth at stake.

The only thing that keeps the score close is if Petrino chooses to abandon the pass in the second half to further develop the running game as he did against Auburn.

Final Score

Petrino proves a point as Arkansas wins 52-23.  

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SEC College Football Upset of the Week: Kentucky versus No. 18 South Carolina

How could anyone possibly think Kentucky’s inept offense could beat the immensely talented South Carolina Gamecocks? Quarterback play; even if it is Morgan Newton that Kentucky is relying on.

Second year head coach Joker Philips has been searching for his team’s offense for the last five weeks. Offensively they rank 118th out of 120 teams nationally in total offense (255.60 yards per game). Their scoring offense ranks 113th averaging 15 points per game (9 touchdowns, 9 extra points, 4 field goals). They are even poor on third down conversions averaging a 27 percent success rate (20 out of 74).

First year starting quarterback Morgan Newton, a junior, has been given the majority of the blame for the lack of offense. He has been sacked an SEC worst 17 times. His six interceptions are tied for the SEC lead with Georgia’s Aaron Murray and Ole Miss’ Zack Stoudt. Newton’s 50 percent completion percentage is an SEC worse as well.

Through all of the bad Kentucky still has a starting quarterback that they know they can rely on game in and game out; good or bad. After five games South Carolina is still in search of their on-field leader.

South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier has finally ended his on again off again relationship with fifth year senior Stephen Garcia, for now. Garcia has been suspended numerous times by Spurrier but each time Spurrier has let him back on the team and back into the starting quarterback role. When will Spurrier ever learn?

Sophomore Connor Shaw takes over for Garcia against the Wildcats. Shaw began the season as the Gamecocks starting quarterback but was quickly benched in the first quarter for Garcia after fumbling twice against East Carolina.

Shaw’s stat line for one quarter’s worth of work was 3 for 9 for 21-yards passing with no touchdowns and zero interceptions before he was taken out of the game. First game jitters could have contributed to the two fumbles Shaw committed. Spurrier jumped the gun and did not allow Shaw to get comfortable in the role as starter.

Everyone knows what South Carolina’s game plan is week after week. Feed the ball to All-SEC running back Marcus Lattimore.

Lattimore leads the SEC in rushing yards with 677 over Trent Richardson’s 622. Lattimore also leads the SEC in rushing attempts and has 28 more carries than Richardson.

Lattimore received too many carries early in the season last year and wore down before midway through the schedule. Spurrier appears to be doing the same thing again to his top rusher this season. What choice does Spurrier have?

Lattimore had 23 rushes for 112 yards against East Carolina, 27 rushes for 176 yards against Georgia, 37 rushes for 246 yards against Navy. Against Vanderbilt he had 20 rushes for 77 yards and 17 rushes for 66 yards against Auburn.

Since Stephen Garcia has been playing poorly, defenses have been putting eight in the box and shutting down Lattimore. Why would Kentucky doing anything differently in their game?

Kentucky’s linebackers Danny Trevathan and Winston Guy lead the SEC in tackles with 59 and 53 respectively. Their stats may be inflated because the Wildcat offense does not do a good job of time possession, 89th in FBS. Don’t take these guys for granted. They are gamers and they can play against Lattimore. Last year Kentucky held Lattimore to 79-yards rushing on 15 attempts in a Wildcat 31-28 win.

The Final Outcome

Shaw’s ability and performance is an unknown commodity going into this week’s match-up. Newton is a known product, even if he is not considered a great SEC quarterback.

Commonsense would have one believe that South Carolina would not lose two consecutive SEC home games. But the Gamecocks outwardly appear to be in some dysfunction in a pivotal time of the season when they should be clicking not benching.  

The Gamecock offense is in better shape with Lattimore than Kentucky is with true freshman running back Josh Clemons (269 yards rushing). But USC senior left tackle Kyle Nunn may miss his second straight game with a bulging disc. Last week true freshman Mike Matulis (Boynton Beach, Florida) struggled against Auburn.

Shaw will key on All-American wide receiver Alshon Jeffery as will the Wildcat secondary.

The Gamecocks may be without senior defensive lineman Melvin Ingram. Ingram leads the team with 7.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks.

Kentucky finds a way to keep the game close and upsets South Carolina for the second straight year 17-14.

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SEC College Football Preview: Looking Ahead to No. 15 Auburn vs. No. 10 Arkansas

How do you like your college football offense? Do you like watching a workhorse get 30-40 carries in a game? Or do you like watching a quarterback attempt 30-50 passes in a game? However you like your offense, the Auburn versus Arkansas game should fill your Saturday with plenty of excitement.

The Auburn Tigers

Auburn, the 2010 BCS National Champions, started the 2011 season with a comeback victory over Utah State 42-38 at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The Tigers had to score twice in the final 2:07 of the game for the win and have been fighting for national respect every since.

The following game the Tigers extended their winning streak to 17-games with a home win against 16th ranked Mississippi State. Auburn’s defense stuffed MSU quarterback Chris Relf with 10 seconds to play at the goal line to hold on for a 41-34 victory. Still, no respect was given to Auburn. Everyone was waiting for an Auburn collapse as they only had five-starters returning from last year’s team.

Unranked Clemson brought Auburn back to reality with a 14-point beating in Death Valley. Finally the real Tiger team was exposed and no more late game heroics could save them. Or did Auburn just happen to lose 38-24 on the road to a really good team?

Clemson has won three straight games over ranked opponents and are now ranked 8th in the nation.

Auburn was given an “adjustment game” against Florida Atlantic, winning 30-14, before starting a tough four-game conference schedule against teams that are all featured in the Associated Press Top 25; at South Carolina, at Arkansas, versus Florida, at LSU.

Auburn fans would hope for a 2-2 record through this tough stretch. Auburn players are wanting more than that, they’re for real and they want the rest of the world to take notice.

The Tigers had nothing to lose but everything to gain when facing No. 10 South Carolina at Williams-Brice Stadium in week five action. The game would be a matchup of two of the top running backs in the SEC and in the nation, Auburn’s Michael Dyer and South Carolina’s Marcus Lattimore.

Auburn’s late game heroics were far from over. A nine-yard Barrett Trotter touchdown pass with 1:38 left in the game would give the Tiger’s a 16-13 win.

Michael Dyer would win the running back battle over Lattimore finishing the game with 141-yards and one touchdown while setting an Auburn rushing attempts record with 41 carries. Lattimore finished the game with 66-yards on 17 attempts and one score.

The Arkansas Razorbacks

How many injuries does it take to derail a promising Arkansas Razorback football season?

One injury was thought to be enough when All-SEC running back Knile Davis was lost for the season with a left ankle injury during fall practices. Much was expected of Davis after he rushed for 1,322 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in what seemed like only half of a season last year.

Even with quarterback Ryan Mallett departed to the NFL along with three offensive linemen and their Mackey Award wining tight end, D.J. Williams, Arkansas was given national respect because of Davis and Bobby Petrino’s offense. After the injury to Davis, Petrino was left with the task of finding another offensive option. Now college football fans are aware of Tyler Wilson.

Wilson has been more than impressive as the starting quarterback for the Razorbacks. With limited action in his first two starts, Wilson is still leading the SEC in passing yards (7th in the nation) with 1,517 yards, second in the SEC with 10 passing touchdowns and only three interceptions in 172 attempts.

Wilson’s go-to receiver, Jarius Wright, leads the SEC with 28 receptions and in receiving yards with 478. Wright’s 119.50 receiving yards per game is 10th best in college football.

The Razorbacks had other injuries to deal with on offense other than Knile Davis. Second string running back Broderick Green, a senior, was thought to be lost for the season when he tore his ACL during spring practices. Dennis Johnson, a 2009 All-American as a kick-off returner, was hurt during the first game of the 2010 season missing the rest of the year. Johnson did not play in the first three games of this season and had limited action against Alabama while recovering from a hamstring injury.

Arkansas started the season with three wins in their non-conference warm-up games; Missouri State 51-7, New Mexico 52-3, and Troy 38-28. Through the first three games Arkansas was never able to find a rhythm at running back with junior running back Ronnie Wingo Jr. as the starter.

Wingo rushed for 43-yards against Missouri State, 73-yards against New Mexico, and 109-yards and two touchdowns against Troy. On short yardage or goal line plays Petrino was using true freshman Kody Walker (Jefferson City, Missouri) instead of Wingo.

Alabama was able to limit Arkansas to 17-net yards rushing holding Wingo to 35-yards rushing on eleven attempts in a 38-14 loss. Arkansas’s offense had become one dimensional relying solely on the arm of Tyler Wilson.

Green and Johnson both made major contributions against Texas A&M which could be the turning point to the Razorback season. Johnson and Green were able to gain critical first downs in the second half using their tough and physical running styles. Green added two rushing touchdowns, his second touchdown proved to be the winning score for the Razorbacks.  

Arkansas’ injury problems have not stopped with the offense. Arkansas has been without both of their starting defensive ends Jake Bequette (missed three games) and Tenarius Wright (injured against Alabama, out 4-6 weeks). Starting cornerbacks Issac Madison (injured against Alabama, did not play against Texas A&M) and Darius Winston (injured during the Texas A&M game) have both missed significant game time. Junior college transfer Robert Thomas, a defensive lineman, was hurt against Texas A&M as well.

Arkansas’ early season has seen Petrino and defensive coordinator Willy Robinson plug and play around key injuries and inexperience on both sides of the ball. Through it all, Arkansas is now ranked 10th in the nation after a 42-38 victory over Texas A&M.

Key Matchups: Auburn vs. Arkansas

Can Arkansas stop Auburn’s top running back, Michael Dyer?

Arkansas gave up 381-rushing yards to Texas A&M; Christine Michael 230, Cyrus Grey 95. Alabama ran for 197-net yards against the Hogs; Trent Richardson 126 yards, Eddie Lacy 61.

Arkansas’ rushing defense is ranked 82nd in the nation allowing 168.20 yards per game.

Dyer is third in the SEC in total rushing yards with 567 and third in rushing touchdowns with seven. His 113.40 rushing yards per game ranks him 18th in the nation.

Arkansas is expecting defensive end Jake Bequette and cornerback Issac Madison to return against Auburn which should help their overall defensive performance. The Hogs will still be without defensive tackle Robert Thomas and cornerback Darius Winston.

Even if the Razorbacks are at full strength would they be able to slow down Dyer?

Can Auburn stop Arkansas’ passing attack?

The Tiger defense is ranked 74th in the nation in pass defense allowing 232.80 yards per game. The only true passing team Auburn has faced this season is Clemson. Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd threw for 386-yards and four touchdowns against Auburn.

The Razorbacks are 16th in the nation in scoring offense averaging 39.40 points per game.

Jarius Wright (478), Cobi Hamilton (318), and Joe Adams (235) are all ranked in the top 15 in the SEC for total yards receiving.

Will the young and inexperienced Tiger secondary be able to keep up with the Razorbacks wide receiving unit?

Tiger cornerback Chris Davis was held out of the South Carolina game due to an ankle injury. Auburn will need every available body healthy come Saturday.

Recent Series History

Over the last five years Arkansas holds 3-2 series lead over Auburn. Auburn has been ranked at the time of each game including their 2006 meeting at Jordan-Hare Stadium when Auburn was ranked second in the nation. This will be the second straight year that both teams are ranked at the time of their game and the first time the Razorbacks are ranked ahead of the Tigers.

2010 (12) Arkansas 43 at (7) Auburn 65

2009 (17) Auburn 23 at Arkansas 44

2008 Arkansas 25 at (20) Auburn 22

2007 (22) Auburn 9 at Arkansas 7

2006 Arkansas 27 at (2) Auburn 10

* Rankings in parenthesis

Inside the Game

Auburn has two prized 5-star recruits from the state of Arkansas on their roster, true sophomore running back Michael Dyer (Little Rock Christian) and true freshman quarterback Kiehl Frazier (Shiloh Christian, Springdale). Auburn has been using Frazier in the Wildcat formation for a change of pace on offense.

Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn is a former Arkansas high school football coach (Shiloh Christian) and was the offensive coordinator at the University of Arkansas in 2006.

Outcome

Both teams are coming off upset wins in their previous game. Arkansas over then ranked No. 14 Texas A&M 42-38 and Auburn over then ranked No. 10 South Carolina 16-13.

Was Auburn’s defense against South Carolina a sign of their maturation or a poorly executed offensive game plan by USC?

The Tigers will take credit for three Stephen Garcia sacks and his two interceptions. Garcia completed 39 percent of his passes finishing with a total of 160-yards passing; and lost his starting job in the process. Don’t look for Wilson to have similar results.

Marcus Lattimore was held to 66-yards rushing with one score. The Gamecocks also fumbled the ball three times losing two while finishing the game 2 for 10 on third down conversion attempts.

The Razorback defense had only allowed one rushing touchdown prior to the A&M game. A&M had an amazing first half racking up 404 yards of offense and 35 points. Through all of the defensive injuries, Willy Robinson made the correct halftime defensive adjustments making the second half a different game. Arkansas limited the Aggies to 3 second half points.

The ability to pick up short yardage first downs with the run and control the clock with the running game in the fourth quarter is something the Razorbacks have been missing. Arkansas appears to have found their power running game with the return of Dennis Johnson and Broderick Green.  

Auburn wide receiver Emory Blake did not play a full second half against South Carolina. His ability to play will help shape Auburn’s offensive attack. Auburn is already one dimensional with Michael Dyer. If Blake cannot play Arkansas will be able to stack the box against Dyer.

Auburn’s 74th ranked scoring defense yields 27.40 points per game.

Arkansas’ defense only allows 22.80 points per game ranking 48th in FBS.

Final Score

Dyer runs but not enough as Tyler Wilson exploits the Tiger’s secondary for a 38-24 win. 

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