10 Reasons Why No. 3 Arkansas will Beat No.1 LSU

The previous 2011 “game of the century” between No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama will be a forgotten afterthought Friday night when No. 3 Arkansas travels to Death Valley to take on No. 1 LSU. In a season full of upsets, the Razorbacks look to add one more team to the list.  

Arkansas vs. LSU has quietly become one of the best SEC rivalry games and one of the best throughout college football. Since 2005 Arkansas and LSU have split their series 3-3. 21 total points separates the winning team from the losing team with Arkansas having the largest winning margin, winning by 8 points in 2010 in Little Rock, Arkansas. That’s a 3.5 average margin of victory between the two schools.

This year’s winner not only receives the Golden Boot Trophy but should end up in the BCS National Title Game. Thankfully CBS put this game back on the schedule the Friday after Thanksgiving before a college football hungry crowd.

The following information lays out how the Hogs will beat the Tigers.

Bobby Petrino versus Les Miles

Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino has defeated Les Miles two out of the three times they have faced each other as head coaches in the SEC. In 2010 No. 12 Arkansas beat No. 6 LSU 31-23, 2009 No. 17 LSU beat unranked Arkansas 33-30 in overtime, and in 2008 Arkansas beat LSU 31-30.

Les Miles may have a BCS National Championship Trophy on his mantle but after Friday’s Razorback win over the Tigers so will Petrino.

Arkansas’ Improved Defense

In 2010 the Razorbacks finished the season ranked 36th in total defense. The Razorbacks’ defensive play started out poorly in 2011. Arkansas gave up 397 total yards of offense to Alabama in week four and 628 total yards to Texas A&M in week five.

Since their early season troubles the Hogs have slowly started to dominate their opponents on defense. The Hogs’ defense is currently ranked 44th in total defense.

The turnaround in play is due to the return of healthy players on defense. The Hogs were without both starting defensive ends Jake Bequette and Tank Wright and both starting cornerbacks Darius Winston and Isaac Madison for several games during the heart of their midseason schedule.

With the starters returning to action, Arkansas defensive coordinator Willy Robinson has been able to develop more depth on the team but more importantly start calling stunts and blitzes again. The base 4-3 defense the Hogs had to run was putting very little pressure on the opposing quarterbacks.

Arkansas’ Improved Running Game

Breaking in three new starters along any college football team’s offensive line will take time before the players gel. The amount of time for the entire line to gel may take longer when two true freshmen, a junior college transfer, two sophomores, and two seniors are learning to play together for the first time.

Offensive line coach Chris Klenakis has progressively done a solid job of getting these guys ready to play week after week. Early season run blocking woes have subsided with the return of running backs Dennis Johnson and Broderick Green from injury.

Johnson, a junior, missed all of 2010 with a bowel injury and started the 2011 season with a hamstring injury. Johnson was slow to get back to full health but by the seventh game of the season he had a season high 15 rushing attempts for 160 yards. Over the past five games Johnson has averaged 98.6 rushing yards per game.

Johnson is only 44 total rushing yards behind LSU’s leading rusher Spencer Ware and 19 rushing yards behind LSU’s second leading rusher Michael Ford on the year.

Senior running back Broderick Green was thought to be lost for the entire 2011 season after tearing his ACL in spring practices. Green returned for the Texas A&M game to provide depth and power running for the Hogs on short yardage and goal line plays. Green has five rushing touchdowns in the six games he has played in this year.

Fearing the LSU Defense?

LSU was among the top defensive teams in the nation during the 2010 season finishing 12th in total defense. 2011 has been an even better statistical year for LSU’s second ranked defense in total yards allowed per game. But is LSU’s defense really better than last year’s?

The loss of lock-down cornerback Patrick Peterson was thought to be difficult to replace along with his abilities as a kickoff and punt returner. Middle linebacker Kelvin Sheppard was a beast for LSU in 2010 totaling 116 tackles. Who has replaced these leaders on defense?

LSU’s leading tacklers are safeties Brandon Taylor and Eric Reid with 61 and 58 tackles respectively. It’s not unusual for a safety to lead a defense in tackles but it is preferred that your linebackers make stops before the running back gets to “the defense’s next level”.

Junior cornerback Morris Claiborne has continued to play well in Peterson’s absence. Claiborne led the Tigers in interceptions in 2010 with five and has four this year.

No one has replaced Peterson’s special teams play on punt returns. Tyrann Mathieu leads the Tigers with 186 return yards with no punt returns for a touchdown.

Another note about LSU’s defense is the skewed statistics they have tallied this season. In games against Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, and Ole Miss the Tigers were facing either the worse offensive units in the SEC or a backup quarterback.

Also, last year was a stellar year for offensive players in the SEC. There’s an impressive list of offensive SEC players that are gone to the NFL or injured this season. The list includes: Ryan Mallett, Cam Newton, Darvin Adams, Marcus Lattimore, Greg McElroy, Mark Ingram, Julio Jones, Mike Hartline, Derrick Locke, Knile Davis, Randall Cobb, and A.J. Green. Without these players in the SEC it seems easier for teams to rack up stronger defensive numbers than in 2010.

Arkansas has Better Playmakers on Offense than LSU

Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson leads the SEC in passing yards with 3,215 total yards. Jarrett Lee is 7th in the SEC with 1,306 total passing yards.

Arkansas’ senior receiver Jarius Wright is tied for the lead the SEC in receiving yards with 1,002 yards despite missing one game this season. LSU’s leading receiver is Ruben Randle with 755 yards.

Arkansas’ second leading receiver is Joe Adams with 595 total receiving yards. LSU’s second leading receiver is Odell Beckham with 410 total yards, 47 total receiving yards behind Arkansas’ tight end Chris Gragg and 31 total receiving yards behind the Hogs’ third leading wide receiver Cobi Hamilton.

LSU’s Spencer Ware has 650 total rushing yards to Dennis Johnson’s 606. Johnson has a 6.7 yard per carry average to Ware’s 4.1. Ware has also carried the ball 160 times; Johnson only has 91 rushing attempts on the season.

Overconfidence of LSU

LSU’s team confidence seems to be at an all time high, and rightfully so. They are the unanimous No. 1 team in the nation with quality wins over Oregon and Alabama.

LSU is battle tested after playing six ranked teams with two of those teams being Top 10 teams at the time of the game, but so are the Razorbacks.

Arkansas has played four ranked teams this season with two of those teams being in the Top 10. Mississippi State was ranked at the time LSU played the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs were not rank at the time Arkansas played them.

Three of the ranked teams LSU beat are no longer ranked.

Win One for Garrett Uekman

After Arkansas took care of Mississippi State Saturday in Little Rock 44-17, the team was shocked to find out that their teammate Garrett Uekman had passed away Sunday. The sudden death of the 19-year-old redshirt freshman tight end will undoubtedly have a dramatic affect on the team entering the LSU game.

Not that the Razorbacks need extra motivation for their game against the Tigers with a possible BCS National Title Game berth on the line, but the opportunity to rally around a fallen player can prove to be an emotional and powerful tool for any team looking for a motivational edge.

LSU’s Defense versus Passing Offenses

LSU has not faced a passing offense like Arkansas’ this season. How well do the Tigers’ defense respond to offensive minded teams?

Oregon’s offense outgained LSU’s 335 to 273. The Ducks also ran 12 more plays than the Tigers, had a 4.1 yard per play average to the Tiger’s 3.9. Darron Thomas threw for 240 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception against LSU.

West Virginia’s quarterback Geno Smith threw for 463 yards against the mighty Tiger defense. Smith finished the game 38 of 65 with 2 touchdowns and 2 picks. The Mountaineers outgained LSU 533 to 366.

Oregon and West Virginia both lost the turnover battle against the Tigers. The Ducks fumbled three times losing all three times while the Mountaineers also fumbled three times losing the ball twice. LSU intercepted Oregon once and WVU twice.

LSU did not throw an interception against either team.

Even “run first” Alabama not only outgained LSU’s passing attack, throwing for 199 yard to LSU’s 91 total passing yards but more importantly had success against their secondary.

One can argue that LSU’s bend but don’t break defense works. One can also argue that LSU has been lucky and, to their benefit, opportunistic at the right time.

Arkansas has the 10th best passing offense in college football with pass catching ability at wide receiver, tight end, and running back. Arkansas has better a better talent level and overall team speed that LSU has not faced in 2011. In 2010 Arkansas gave this same LSU defense trouble as the Hogs finished with 320 yards passing with three touchdowns.

The Hogs’ 5-2 Defense is ready to stop the Tiger’s Rushing Attack

Many fans may forget that the Hogs experimented with a 5-2 defense against early season foes and in fall practices. The thought was the Razorbacks could stop Alabama’s rushing attack with a 5-2 defensive front. The 5-2 defense was not put into use against the Tide as both of Arkansas’ starting defensive ends did not play a full game against Bama.

The Razorbacks have their starters back and depth along the defensive front. Look for the Hogs to use the 5-2 defense against the Tigers to slow down their running game making LSU one-dimensional. The Hogs would love for Jordan Jefferson or Jarrett Lee to try to beat them with their arm.

Arkansas has been slow to stop the opposition’s quarterbacks from running at times during the season. Using a 5-2 defense will help keep Jefferson contained and limit running opportunities throughout the game as well.

The Razorbacks are Overdue!

The last Arkansas Razorback National Championship in football came in 1964. The Hogs have been a couple of games away a time or two in the past but have not been this close to playing for the national championship since 2006.

The SEC has won five straight BCS National Championships with three of those wins coming from their SEC West counterparts: Florida in 2007, LSU in 2008, Florida in 2009, Alabama in 2010, and Auburn in 2011. Arkansas would like to add the sixth straight title to the SEC’s run. 

What would you like to clarify? Don't forget to sign up for email notifications and as a reader/follower. Follow HogManInLA on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/HogManInLa

SEC College Football Preview: (3) LSU versus Mississippi State

Mississippi State

More questions than answers were left for Mississippi State after their dramatic 41-34 loss to in-conference rival Auburn last Saturday.

With 10 seconds left to play in regulation, MSU head coach Dan Mullen gave his starting quarterback, Chris Relf, the choice to call the would be last offensive play of the game: pass or run. With no timeouts remaining Relf choose a running play and was stopped an inch short of the goal line.

Let the questions begin. With time to run a pass play first and if unsuccessful then choose a running play, why would Dan Mullen leave the final play call to his senior quarterback? One would think that Mullen or his offensive coordinator Les Koenning should be left with that decision especially with the game on the line during a season with so much at stake for Mullen and the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State has 15 returning starters from a team that finished the 2010 season 9-4 with a convincing Gator Bowl blow out of Michigan 52-14. Auburn has five returning starters from their 2010 BCS National Championship team and struggled in their first game of the season to beat Utah State in Jordan-Hare Stadium. College football pundits, the national media, and Bulldog fans all sensed an opportunity for MSU to take the next step within the SEC by beating Auburn. Mississippi State has to feel a certain amount of a let down after missing an opportunity to win a tough in-conference game.

Still more questions remain for MSU. Is the loss of Mississippi State’s three starting linebackers from 2010 going to be too much for them to overcome in 2011, especially Chris White who led the Bulldogs with 110 tackles and six sacks?

Was Auburn a trap game for a team looking ahead to their matchup against third ranked LSU?

Has MSU’s offensive game plan become predictable? Gene Chizik was quoted saying, “We called time out there at the end and told them (the Auburn defense) what was going to happen the final two plays.”

How will Vick Ballard, the nation’s third leading rusher with 301 total yards in two games for a 150.5 yard per game average, hold up on a shortened game week against the stingy LSU defense, which is ranked 12 th in the nation in total defense? That includes LSU’s game against the high powered Oregon Ducks.

Chris Relf is a big guy and gives as many hits as he takes, but how many hits can he take standing in the pocket and on the run before he starts to wear down?

LSU

Even with all the turmoil surrounding this LSU team, Les Miles and the Tigers continue to roll. LSU easily defeated Northwestern State on Saturday 49-3, but more importantly they were able to rest the majority of their starters in the second half against the Demons.

LSU has stuck to their offensive game plan and it has turned out well for them so far this year: don’t turn the ball over, limit long third down conversion plays, rely on the defense for field position, and run the ball as often as possible. The game plan worked so well against Northwestern State that quality time was given to backup players including University of Georgia transfer, quarterback Zach Mettenberger. Mettenberger finished the game with 92 yards passing and a touchdown completing eight of his eleven pass attempts. LSU starting quarterback Jarrett Lee completed the first half of play going 9-10 for 133 yards with no interceptions.

Les Miles was able to limit the wear and tare on Spencer Ware. Ware only carried the ball six times but scored twice. Michael Ford finished the game with 71 yards rushing on 13 attempts with two rushing touchdowns.  Sophomore backup running back Alfred Blue finished the game with a game high 15 rushing attempts.

Ball control was a problem for the Tigers. They fumbled the ball three times only losing one fumble.

The Tigers defense was dominating holding Demons to minus four yards rushing and 99 yards passing. The defense created four fumbles but could not convert any of those fumbles into turnovers.

Outcome of the Game

Is it too early in the season to call this game a make or break game for the Bulldogs? MSU still has to play at Georgia, vs. South Carolina, vs. Alabama, at Arkansas, and the Egg Bowl at home. Should MSU lose, being down two games within conference play could push them out of contention for the SEC West title in week three.

Will LSU get caught looking ahead to their road game at West Virginia? Will the cowbells ringing inside Davis Wade Stadium disrupt Jarrett Lee’s ability to call plays at the line of scrimmage?

Both teams have plenty of motivation going into this game. MSU doesn’t want to be left behind in the SEC West race and LSU feels they have BCS National Championship talent. A loss could be devastating to either team’s hopes for the season.

Look for both teams to have the same philosophy going into the game: run the ball as mush as possible and hope their defense makes stops and gets turnovers against the other team’s offense.

In the end defense wins championships and tough road games during conference play. LSU will not get caught looking ahead to their Big East opponent West Virgina.

LSU grinds out another win for the Tiger faithful.

LSU 28 – MSU 18

Notes to the Game:

LSU has won the last 11 meetings against MSU.

LSU won last year’s game 29-7 in Baton Rouge.

MSU could be without two starting senior offensive linemen against LSU. Center Quentin Saulsberry (sprained knee) and left tackle James Carmon (leg) were both injured during the Auburn game. Their availability to play could come down to a game time decision.

Can LSU’s DT Michael Brockers continue his strong play up front and help stuff Mississippi State’s fifth ranked offense?

Starting LSU linebacker Ryan Baker has been reinstated for the MSU game. Baker was suspended against Northwestern State for breaking a team rule.

LSU senior starting offensive guard Josh Dworaczyk will miss the MSU game due to surgery on his knee.

* Game time is 8:00 p.m. EST. 

What would you like to clarify? Don't forget to sign up for email notifications and as a reader/follower.

Follow HogManInLA on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/HogManInLa

SEC Subplots for the 2011 College Football Season

What’s a football season without predictions, storylines, and subplots? The 2011 SEC college football season should provide everything needed for a Hollywood movie. The SEC has new coaches, new players hoping for new results, and old coaches, old players with some hoping for the same old results while others praying for new results.

Here are a few storylines that might be worth taking note of over the next five months.

I am Genius See Me Fail or Succeed?

Can Charlie Weis consistently run a productive/winning offense in college football? In 2005 Weis told the world that Notre Dame would have a “decided schematic advantage” over the teams they play due to his offensive prowess in the NFL. Weis won with Tyrone Willingham’s players in 2005 and 2006 (9-2 and 10-3) then faltered his next three years (3-9, 7-6, 6-6). Luckily Weis has Muschamp and other to recruit for him at Florida. He may sneak in a few new plays during 2011 to help UF earn a victory here or there. If he does well this year hold the praise until years two and three. SEC defenses will eventually catch up to him, like they did with Urban Meyer’s spread option.

Payback is… fun

Gus Malzahn is considered the hottest head coaching prospect in Division-1 football after leading Auburn to a title last season. With all of the talent depleted from their roster, how competitive can Malzahn make Auburn? His stock either rises or falls after this season.

If the Ole Miss job opens up… Auburn can wave goodbye to Gus. The deeper story is Houston Nutt gave Malzahn his first shot at college coaching while at Arkansas, and rumors are Nutt wasn’t the nicest guy to Malzahn then. This would be another personal victory for the former Arkansas high school football coach over Nutt, if he wants the job.

On the hot seat: Mark Richt and Houston Nutt.

Both coaches will feel the heat after week one if they lose their tough non-conference openers; Boise State and BYU respectively.

Prediction:

Richt finishes the 2011 season but no one knows after that?

Nutt’s week three loss to Vanderbilt begins the collection of buyout money. The Egg Bowl loss gives Nutt his walking papers.  

SEC Dark Horses

Mississippi State is more of a dark horse for a SEC Title run than Arkansas, but both teams have programs on the rise and teams that can make some noise. Which team if either can knock off traditional powerhouse schools Alabama and LSU?

A Tiger Slaughter?

Will Les Miles sacrificial lamb offering of Gary Crowton last year be enough to keep LSU alumni, boosters, and fans off of him if LSU’s offense sputters again this season? Miles’ future was in the hands of the offensive head of Steve Kragthrope; Kragthrope recently stepped down as offensive coordinator upon learning that he has Parkinson’s disease but he will remain on staff. Miles is still responsible for the arm and production of Jordan Jefferson.

Any good to decent coach will be able to recruit top talent for the Bayou Bengals. Selling hope off of recruiting stars year after year won’t keep the passionate and knowledgeable fan base in Baton Rouge happy for long. The mantra in Baton Rouge of “Lose Les, Win More” could put another winning coach on the hot seat.

Gamecock Nation Getting Antsy

Spurrier finally gave USC fans a taste of what they’ve been waiting for over the past 19 years, a chance to play in the SEC Title Game. Anytime a coach takes a program to the next level, the expectations of the fans raise a level above the last achievement. Winning the SEC Title Game is expected; a BCS Bowl game is demanded.

An Eye on Lattimore

During the early part of the 2010 season true freshman running back Marcus Lattimore got all the opportunities he could handle to prove he was an All-SEC type of running back. By the end of his second game against Georgia, 37 rushes 182 yards and 1 touchdown, he appeared to be worn out. Lattimore was held to under 100 yards rushing in each of the next four games (Furman 97 yards rushing, at Auburn 33 yards rushing, Alabama 93 yards, and at Kentucky 79 yards rushing).

He sat out his would be 7^th game versus Vanderbilt and by the end of his eighth game versus Tennessee he was banged up again after a 29 carry effort for 184 yards and 1 touchdown. Against Arkansas, the ninth game of the Gamecocks season, Lattimore was largely ineffective only rushing for 30 yards; his lowest individual rushing total of the 2010 season. One can argue that Spurrier held Lattimore out once the Razorbacks were ahead so he would be fresh for the Florida Gators showdown the following week, which yielded 40 rushing attempts and 212 yards rushing with 3 touchdowns.

Lattimore ended up with 1,197 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns. He only crossed the 100 yard mark four times in 2010 with one of those efforts going for 212 yards. Will Lattimore be able to take the pounding game in and game out during his sophomore season?

SEC Players Strike a Pose

Three of the past four Heisman Trophy winners have been from a SEC school; Tim Teabow 2007, Mark Ingram 2009, and Cam Newton 2010. Will a SEC player make it 4 out of 5?

You’re My Alma Mater!

Will Muschamp graduated from University of Georgia and was a captain on their football team his senior season (1994). If the Gators are up by 14 in the 4^th quarter does he try to run the clock out or let Weis keep chucking it down field?

What would you like to clarify? Don't forget to sign up for email notifications and as a reader/follower. Follow HogManInLA on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/HogManInLa