College Football: Picking Every SEC Game in Week 5

The SEC rolls out another slate of BCS Championship caliber games in week five of the 2011 season. Alabama travels to the Swamp to face Florida, Arkansas plays Texas A&M in Arlington, Texas, and Georgia tries to get their season on track against Mississippi State.

No. 1 LSU welcomes Kentucky, Tennessee comes off a bye to face Buffalo, Auburn travels to No. 10 South Carolina, and Ole Miss looks for their running game at Fresno State.

Vanderbilt (3-1) has a bye week. The Commodores travel to Alabama October 8.

Alabama (4-0, 3-1) versus Florida (4-0, 1-0)

There are several key SEC match-ups this week but none more important than the outcome of the No. 3 Alabama versus No. 12 Florida game. This game should shape how the conference races in both SEC divisions play out.

An Alabama win keeps them on pace with preseason SEC West favorite LSU. A loss by Alabama puts LSU in the driver’s seat until their November 5, game against LSU in Tuscaloosa.

A Florida win keeps the Gators on pace with South Carolina in the SEC East. A loss by Florida followed by a road trip to LSU could put the Gators out of control of their own destiny for the rest of the season.

Both teams play tough defense and are committed to stopping the run. Alabama and Florida use a tandem running back rotation opposing defenses have to account for. Bama uses Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy while Florida uses Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps. The Crimson Tide averages 230.75 rushing yards per game and the Gators average 259 yards per game.

Alabama’s defense only gives up 45.75 rushing yards per game. Florida gives up 56.50.

Which team will be able to run the ball better and complete critical third down passing conversions when needed?

Both teams have a similar third down conversion rate as well; Bama 41.18, Gators 42.55.

Who wins this one in a tight matchup? Bama won last year’s game 31-6. This one goes down to the wire with the Tide winning 24-18.

Arkansas (3-1, 0-1) versus Texas A&M (3-1)

In a non-conference, but soon to be conference showdown in 2012, No. 14 Texas A&M takes on No. 18 Arkansas in the Southwest Classic.

Much will be made about this game one way or another… either A&M does not belong in the SEC by fans boycotting their acceptance into the SEC or this is a preview of things to come with an A&M victory.

Both sides are banged up on defense thus very little knowledge about either team will be gathered from this game. The Aggies could be without three starters on defense; S Steven Campbell, CB Coryell Judie, and DL Jonathan Mathis. DB Louie Swope could miss the game as well.

The Razorbacks will be without starting defensive end Tenarius Wright (arm) and possibly their other starting defensive end Jake Bequette (hamstring). Issac Maddison hurt his knee in the Alabama game but is expected to play this weekend.

The Razorback rushing attack could receive a boost if running back Broderick Green plays against the Aggies. Green tore his ACL during Arkansas spring practices and was expected to miss the rest of the season. Reports are he has been practicing for the past three weeks and is expected to take some snaps this weekend. Arkansas will need him against the Aggies 7th rated rush defense (60.33 yards per game).

The key match up is Arkansas’ passing attack (312.25 yards per game) versus Texas A&M’s passing defense (279 yards per game; ranked 109th in the nation. A&M leads the nation in total sacks (14) and sacks per game (4.67). Can Tyler Wilson avoid the rush and find receivers down field? Or will A&M’s “Sack Attack” be too much for the Razorbacks inexperienced offensive line?

Arkansas won last year 24-17. Look for Arkansas to hold on for a 28-24 win this year.

Mississippi State (2-2, 0-2) versus Georgia (2-2, 1-1)

The Mississippi State versus Georgia game pits two teams with similar disappointing starts to their seasons. Georgia had tough games against Boise State and South Carolina while MSU lost tough games to Auburn and LSU.

MSU has had injuries along their offensive line and have had difficulty replacing their linebacker unit from last season. Chris Relf did not play well against Louisiana Tech last week but did enough to secure the 26-20 overtime home win with the game winning touchdown pass.

Georgia has reversed their early season stumble with two convincing wins, one over SEC West foe Ole Miss last week 27-13 and Costal Carolina 59-0.

Georgia has had injury problems as well and has had to use walk-ons in key positions. Georgia is young and largely inexperienced. 2012 may be a breakout year for these Bulldogs but there is still hope to their 2011 season as they only have two top 25 teams left on the schedule.

Georgia’s commitment to starting true freshman Isaiah Crowell could be looked at as the turning point in their season. Crowell has responded with two 100-yard rushing games. Crowell will have to take the majority of the snaps as fellow running backs Carlton Thomas and Ken Malcome are not expected to play this weekend.

MSU OL Tobias Smith (knee, out for season) and LB Chris Hughes (disciplinary) will both be out against Georgia.

MSU won last year’s match up 24-12. Look for this one to be tight too with Georgia taking the win at home 24-17.

Kentucky (2-2, 0-1) vs. LSU (4-0, 1-0)

Kentucky travels to Death Valley for their second game straight game out of three versus a top 25 foe. The Wildcats have the unfortunate task of playing LSU after two road trips; The Tiger faithful will be excited to have the number one team in the nation back home.

Kentucky’s offense has been non-existent. The loss of WR Randall Cobb, RB Derrick Locke, WR Chris Matthews, and QB Mike Hartline has been too much for Joker Phillips to replace; understandably so.

LSU’s defense has been lights out as needed against top tier offenses. Their offense has steadily improved under the direction of quarterback Jarrett Lee.

Perhaps the biggest question out of the Bayou Bengal camp is what will Les Miles do with Jordan Jefferson?

Jefferson has been reinstated by LSU after Baton Rouge police lowered their charges to simple battery against Jefferson. Will Les integrate Jefferson back into the offense and eventually place him back into the lineup as a starter. Or will Miles keep a great thing going with Lee? Both players are seniors and have a lot left to prove to NFL scouts. A two headed quarterback rotation could spell disaster for the Tigers.

Kentucky has to hope they can catch LSU looking forward to next week’s game versus University of Florida otherwise the pairing of LSU’s 14th ranked scoring defense (14.25 points per game) against Kentucky’s 107th ranked scoring offense (17 points per game) will get ugly quick.

LSU wins this one before halftime: 42-10.

Auburn (3-1, 1-0) vs. South Carolina (4-0, 2-0)

Auburn rolls into South Carolina after an adjustment game against Florida Atlantic in week four. Auburn won easily (30-14) but serious questions remain about their defense.

South Carolina’s offense was shutdown for the first time this year against an upstart Vanderbilt team. The Gamecocks defense bailed the offense out as USC won 21-3.

Auburn and South Carolina’s offense are good at filling up the score board, 34.25 and 36.50 points per game respectively. The game will come down to either team’s defensive ability to stop the other team’s high potent offensive attacks. South Carolina gives up 27.75 points per game to Auburn’s 31 points per game.

Not much separates these teams by their schedules to date.

South Carolina’s rush defense gives up 137.75 yards per game, including a tough game against Navy’s rushing attack. Auburn gives up 226.50 yards per game; 112th worst in FBS.

This one is a shootout 42-31: Marcus Lattimore and Michael Dyer will put on a running back clinic. Lattimore gets the better of Dyer as South Carolina gets the win because they are playing at home and they can stop the run better than Auburn.

Mississippi (1-3, 0-2) vs. Fresno State (2-2)

Houston Nutt needs this win and boy does he need it badly if the Rebels have any hope to make a bowl game this season. The Rebels get a bye next week and then start the heart of their SEC schedule with Alabama and Arkansas coming to Oxford then back to back road trips to Auburn and Kentucky before finishing the season at home against LSU and at Mississippi State.

Fresno State has played an unbalanced schedule to date. The Bulldogs started the season off losing two road games to California 36-21 and Nebraska 42-29. Then Fresno State beat North Dakota 27-22 at home and won at Idaho 48-24. They have taken care of lesser competition to date.

Now Ole Miss comes to town, a team that beat them 55-38 in Oxford last year. Which team is Ole Miss this season, the lesser competition or a BCS Conference school?

Fresno State gives up 31 points per game while Ole Miss gives up 23.75 points.

Fresno State averages 31.25 points per game to Ole Miss’ 18.75 per game.

If Fresno State is able to limit the Rebels running game, which only averages 91.80 yards per game, the Bulldogs should walk away with another victory against a BCS power conference team for the fifth year in a row.

Ole Miss could be blessed with the return of their top two tailbacks, Brandon Bolden and Enrique Davis. Their status is a game time decision.

Fresno State will be without RB A.J. Ellis, DB Zak Hill, and OL Matt Hunt.

Ole Miss sneaks by 24-14.

Buffalo (1-3) versus Tennessee (2-1, 0-1)

Tennessee welcomes the Bulls to Knoxville after a bye week spent fixing offensive line issues and trying to limit big plays given up by their defense.

Tennessee had a frustrating 33-23 loss to Florida at the Swamp before their bye. Perhaps even more frustrating was the loss of wide receiver Justin Hunter for the season to a torn ACL in the Florida game. Hunter was Tyler Bray’s top target and a beast for opposing defensive coordinators to have to deal with.

Tennessee’s tune-up game against Buffalo is much needed before going on a brutal four game SEC stretch that includes Georgia, LSU, Alabama, and South Carolina. Look for head coach Derek Dooley to give running backs Tauren Poole and Marlin Lane as many touches as he can to get the Vols rushing attack on track before their four-game October stretch.

Tennessee wins easily 35-7.

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SEC College Football Recap: All Teams Week 3 in Review

The SEC had a rough week in out of conference action when Auburn and Kentucky lost their games to Clemson, ACC and Louisville, Big East respectively.

The rest of the SEC teams held their ground in preparation for this week’s big games: Arkansas vs. Alabama, LSU vs. West Virginia, and Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina.

LSU (2-0) vs. Mississippi State (1-1)

Mississippi State and their fans still had questions left over from their road loss to Auburn… LSU’s defense answered the rest of their questions. MSU is not ready to take that next step in the SEC as they lost 19-6 to the Tigers.

Vick Ballard was held to 38-yards rushing after averaging 150-yards rushing per game in the first two games of the season. MSU’s only netted 52 yards rushing for the entire game.

LSU’s defense harassed Chris Relf sacking him three times and sacking Tyler Russell once.

Jarrett Lee got the job done for LSU and answered his critics, yes he can win a big game on the road, by completing 21 of 27 passes for 213-yards with one touchdown and one interception.

Spencer Ware pounded the MSU defense 22 times for 107-yards rushing.

Ruben Randle was Lee’s go to guy hauling in six catches for 98-yards receiving with one score.

This week’s games:

LSU (3-0) vs. West Virginia (3-0)

Louisiana Tech (1-2) vs. MSU (1-2)

Ole Miss (1-1) vs. Vanderbilt (2-0)

James Franklin is all smiles after he led the Commodores past Ole Miss 30-7 in Nashville. Franklin has surpassed last year’s win total of two games and earned his first SEC in-conference victory in the process.

Vanderbilt’s defense gave the Ole Miss offense all they could handle picking off Zack Stoudt four times returning one of those picks for a touchdown. Ole Miss was held to 234-yards of total offense while Vandy amassed 387-yards, 281-yards rushing.

Junior Zac Stacy led the Commodores with 169-yards rushing on eleven attempts and one score. Larry Smith was efficient for Vanderbilt finishing 13 of 20 for 103-yards passing.

Ole Miss’ lone score was with 2:48 seconds left in the game on a 47-yard pass play from Stoudt to Donte Moncrief.

This week’s games:

Vanderbilt (3-0) vs. South Carolina (3-0)

Georgia (1-2) vs. Ole Miss (1-2)

Auburn (2-0) vs. Clemson (2-0)

Everyone was waiting to see if or when Auburn would lose their winning magic from the 2010 season. Clemson found a way to stifle the Tiger’s offense in the second half winning 38-24.

Tied at 21-21 going into halftime, Clemson struck first after halftime on their opening series on a 65-yard pass play from Tajh Boyd to Sammy Watkins. Auburn would respond with a field goal later in the third but the Clemson Tigers tacked on another Boyd to Watkins touchdown to pull ahead 35-24.

Tajh Boyd finished the day with four passing touchdowns and completing 30 of 42 passes for 386-yards.

Michael Dyer led Auburn with 151-yards rushing on 16 attempts.

Auburn’s defense allowed 624-yards of total offense.

This week’s games:

Florida Atlantic (0-2) vs. Auburn (2-1)

Florida State (2-1) vs. Clemson (3-0)

Coastal Carolina (2-0) vs. Georgia (0-2)

Georgia unleashed some early season frustration on the Chanticleers beating them 59-0.

Aaron Murray completed 69 percent of his passes for 188-yards and three passing touchdowns while adding one rushing touchdown against Coastal Carolina. True freshman running back Isaiah Crowell finished with a game high 86-yards rushing in his first start as a Bulldog.

Georgia shut down Coastal Carolina’s offense only allowing 10 different runners a total of 63-yards rushing. The Chanticleers finished the game with 49-yards passing.

This week’s games:

Georgia (1-2) vs. Mississippi (1-2)

Coastal Carolina (2-1) vs. North Carolina A&T (1-1)

Tennessee (2-0) vs. Florida (2-0)

Chris Rainey and Florida extended their six-game dominance over the Vols to seven games, winning 33-23 in the Swamp.

Rainey had 108-yards rushing, 104-yards receiving with one touchdown, and blocked a punt against Tennessee. Rainey’s performance has gained him additional national Heisman recognition with voters.

Florida’s defense was too much for Tyler Bray and the Volunteers to handle. Bray was sacked three times and threw two interceptions. The Gator defense dropped several would be interceptions throughout the game as the Vols offense was one dimensional during the game. Bray finished the game 26-48 for 288 yards-passing with three touchdowns.

Bray’s stat line was impressive but that was all the offense Tennessee could muster against the Gators. The Gators shut down Tennessee’s running attack not allowing any positive yards for the game (negative nine yards). Tauren Poole has not gotten on track during the 2011 season for Tennessee. Poole finished the game with 18-yards rushing on ten attempts.

Tennessee wide receiver Justin Hunter left the game with a torn ACL and will be out the rest of the season. He only had one catch for 12-yards before his injury.

John Brantley was not flashy but got the job done throwing two touchdown passes on 14-23 attempts for 213 yards.

This week’s games:

Tennessee (2-1) Bye

Florida (3-0) vs. Kentucky (2-1)

Navy (2-0) vs. South Carolina (2-0)

South Carolina hung on for a well deserved victory against Navy winning 24-21.

Both teams are known for their rushing attacks but the game came down to a fourth-down Midshipmen pass that was intercepted by the Gamecocks to stop Navy’s upset bid.

South Carolina ran their sophomore sensation Marcus Lattimore 37 times for a career high 246-yards rushing and three touchdowns in the game. Steve Spurrier did not have another running back carry the ball against Navy.

Stephen Garcia completed 72 percent of his passes finishing with 204-yards passing and one interception.

South Carolina’s defense held Navy to 274-yards rushing, 126-yards below their 400-yards per game average entering the game.

Navy held the lead twice during the game. The Midshipmen scored first leading 7-0 in the first quarter then regained the lead with 4:23 left in the third quarter on a two-yard touchdown run going up 21-17 over the Gamecocks.

Neither team lost a fumble during the game on a combined 91-rushing attempts.

This week’s games:

Vanderbilt (3-0) vs. South Carolina (3-0)

Air Force (1-1) vs. Navy (2-1)

Louisville (1-1) vs. Kentucky (2-0)

Louisville ended their four-game losing streak to the Wildcats winning 24-17 in Lexington.

Louisville’s passing attack was the primary concern for Kentucky going into the game but their rushing attack made the difference. The Cardinals ran for 181-yards to the Wildcats 35-yards rushing.

Louisville played most of the game without their starting quarterback, Will Stein. True freshman Teddy Bridgewater replaced Stein finishing the game with 106-yards passing and two touchdowns on 10 of 18 passing attempts.

Morgan Newton finally found a rhythm throwing the ball in the second half for Kentucky. Newton ran Kentucky’s no-huddle offense for a late touchdown in the fourth quarter to pull within 24-17. Perhaps Joker Phillips will use their no-huddle offense in upcoming games to help make Newton more effective in the passing game?

Newton finished with two passing touchdowns on 27-41 attempts for 255-yards.

This week’s games:

Florida (3-0) vs. Kentucky (2-1)

Louisville (2-1) Bye

North Texas (0-2) vs. Alabama (2-0)

Alabama ran past the Mean Green 41-0 in a tune-up game for the Arkansas Razorbacks. This was the first shut-out for Alabama since 2009.

Alabama’s backfield combo of Trent Richardson and Bo Lacy set an Alabama rushing record as both backs topped the 160-yard mark. Alabama has never had two backs rush for more than 150-yards each in a game previously. Richardson finished with 167-yards rushing on eleven attempts with three rushing touchdowns and Lacy finished with 161-yards on nine rushes with two scores.

Even though their defense was outmanned, the Mean Green stopped Alabama inside the red zone twice in the first half forcing them to kick two field goals. Bama’s offense gave up four sacks in the game, sacking AJ McCarron three times.

The Tide’s defense only gave up 169-net yards for the game.

This week’s games:

Arkansas (3-0) vs. Alabama (3-0)

North Texas (0-3) vs. Indiana (1-2)

Troy (1-1) vs. Arkansas (2-0)

Arkansas avoided a trap game with Troy before finally winning 38-28 in Fayettville, Arkansas.

Tyler Wilson added another 300-yard passing game and two more passing touchdowns to his collegiate resume against the Trojans. The Razorback offense seemed fairly basic in their final tune-up game before starting conference play against Alabama. The Razorbacks rarely stretched the field with their passing game instead choosing short yardage pass plays to help move the chains.

Ronnie Wingo Jr. had his best rushing performance of the season and his career with a game high 109-yards rushing and two scores. Wingo also had a six-yard touchdown catch for the first score of the third quarter.

The Razorbacks were up 31-7 in the third quarter before Corey Robinson and the Trojans made the game interesting. Troy did not give up against the Hogs as the Arkansas game was their last chance to defeat a major BCS Conference team during the regular season.

Robinson attempted 63-passes, completing 36, for 373-yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. The Trojans intercepted a Tyler Wilson pass which was returned for a touchdown making the score 31-21 Arkansas.

Arkansas would respond in the fourth quarter with a 56-yard touchdown pass from Wilson to Joe Adams (eight catches, 109-yards receiving). Robinson threw his third touchdown of the game with 47 seconds to play making the final score 38-28.

Arkansas looked flat at times against the up-tempo Trojan offense as they seemed to be looking ahead to this week’s game against Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

Robinson may be the best quarterback the Hogs will face during the regular season. Robinson is the fifth-rated quarterback in FBS and the eleventh rated quarterback in yards per game at 315.5.

This week’s games:

Arkansas (3-0) vs. Alabama (3-0)

Middle Tennessee (0-2) vs. Troy (1-1) 

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College Football Preview: Predictions for Every SEC Football Game in Week 3

LSU (2-0) vs. MSU (1-1)

Before the season started this game appeared to be a swing game for MSU. Now this game is a must win game for the Bulldogs. After last week’s disappointing loss to Auburn, MSU still has to play four ranked SEC teams including LSU. Having two conference losses could push the Bulldogs out of the SEC West Division race before the conference races really get started.

MSU has two starting offensive linemen that will be a game time decision. Even if both linemen suit up will their play be effective enough to open holes for Vick Ballard, the nation’s third leading rusher (150.5 yards per game)? Especially against the nation’s 12^th rated total defense and a run defense that is ranked eighth in the nation only allowing 45.5 yards per game.

Mississippi State’s rushing defense is ranked 99^th in the nation giving up 199.5 yards per game. Les Miles loves to run the ball and let his defense win games for him. Look for LSU to add to their 175 rushing yards per game average against the Bulldogs defense.

Prediction: LSU makes it look easy winning 28-18.

Auburn (2-0) vs. Clemson (2-0)

The last two games between Auburn and Clemson have gone into overtime with Auburn winning both meetings. Auburn won last year 27-24 and has won the last eleven meetings against Clemson.

Both teams are horrible against the run. Clemson’s defense allows an average of 218.5 rushing yards per game, good for the 107^th ranked rushing defense in the nation. Not to be outdone by Clemson, Auburn is allowing 280 rushing yards per game for a ranking of 118^th out of 120 NCAA FBS schools.

Clemson is averaging 206 yards rushing per game (vs. Wofford and Troy). Andre Ellington had 140 yards rushing against Auburn in last year’s meeting in Jordan-Hare Stadium and he is averaging 127 yards per game so far this season.

Clemson has won going away in both games early this season in Death Valley; the other Death Valley for those of you not familiar with football life outside of the SEC. Wofford hung tough but Clemson looked disinterested in the game.

Auburn continues to find ways to win and this will be the first real test for Clemson this year.

The offensive coordinators know each other from their head coaching days in high school. Gus Malzahn (Arkansas) was actually a mentor to Chad Morris (Texas) and recommended Morris to replace him as the offensive coordinator at Tulsa when Malzahn took the Auburn job. So there will be no surprises for either team’s offense or defense, unless either team’s defense shows up to play. Look for a high scoring shootout with whoever scores last winning.

Prediction: Auburn to keeps their mojo going winning 38-31.  

Mississippi (1-1) vs. Vanderbilt (2-0)

The Ole Miss versus Vanderbilt game may seem like the least interesting game of the week in the SEC, or for the season, but there are several things to take from the outcome of this game which should be interesting for all SEC fans.

This is a match up of two programs going in two different directions. First year head coach James Franklin is selling the future while Houston Nutt is talking about winning back to back Cotton Bowls in the past. Vanderbilt is coming off a big win over Connecticut (24-21) and Ole Miss is still licking their wounds from an opening day loss to BYU; a game they had in hand until a fourth quarter Ole Miss fumble was returned for a touchdown. Houston Nutt is on the hot seat in Oxford and Vanderbilt is drawing recruiting attention not seen in Nashville in years.

If Vanderbilt’s game against the Huskies is an indication of the Commodores season, senior quarterback Larry Smith is in for a bruising 2011. Smith was sacked seven times losing 46 yards. Vanderbilt was able to get stops when they need them on defense but the offense put the defense in tough situations throughout the game. The Commodores only converted two third-down attempts in 16 tries. Smith also threw two interceptions and fumbled once in the fourth quarter which was returned for a touchdown and a go-ahead score (21-14) by Connecticut.

Both teams are anemic on offense. Vanderbilt has the 105^th ranked offense in the nation averaging 284 yards per game from the line of scrimmage. Ole Miss is even worse averaging 261.5 yards per game for a FBS ranking of 111^th. Neither team has an effective passing game which will make this a game of field position and three-and-outs.

Through all of the bad for the Commodores, they have won three of the last four meetings against Ole Miss. Having already tied last seasons win total and playing at home, look for Vanderbilt to give Ole Miss everything they’ve got. This could be the Commodores best chance to get a SEC victory during the 2011 season. Franklin won’t let this opportunity pass him by.

Ole Miss’ one potentially saving grace is their punt team. The Rebels average a net gain of 43.22 yards per punt which swings the field position each time they kick.

The Commodores rush defense is ranked 30^th in the nation only giving up 86 yards per game. Ole Miss gives up close to double that amount (157 per game). If the game comes down to who can run the ball and who can stop the run, on paper this game favors the Commodores.

Predicition:

Vanderbilt wins 21-18.

Coastal Carolina (2-0) vs. Georgia (0-2)

Through the first two games of the season no other FBS team has played a tougher schedule than Georgia. Georgia lost at home to fifth ranked Boise State (35-21) and twelfth ranked South Carolina (45-42). This week Georgia gets a break in their schedule and an opportunity to put a stop to their three game losing streak dating back to their 2010 Liberty Bowl loss to Central Florida (6-10).

Georgia will have an opportunity to work on different facets of their game and hopefully rest some starters in the second half in preparation for their next game at Ole Miss.

True freshman running back Isaiah Crowell (Columbus, Georgia) will make his first start of the season. Crowell rushed for 118 yards last week against South Carolina.

Georgia turned the ball over three times against South Carolina which led to 21 Gamecock points.

Coastal Carolina is a FCS school stepping up a division to play Georgia. Their first two games have been home wins against Furman (30-23) and Catawba (20-3).

Georgia takes out all of their early season frustration on the Chanticleers winning 49-3.

Tennessee (2-0) vs. Florida (2-0)

The 40^th meeting between Tennessee and Florida promises to be a great showdown of two schools influx. What used to be one of the best college football rivalry games has lost some of its luster over the past few years… but don’t tell the die hard fans for either school.

Both teams are young with dynamic offenses looking to reestablish themselves among the college football elite. Tennessee enters the game averaging 485 total yards per game (24^th in FBS) and the Gators are averaging 490 yards per game in Charlie Weis’ pro-style offense (21^st in FBS).

Vols quarterback Tyler Bray is off to a blistering start to his 2011 season. Bray is averaging 349 yards passing per game (6^th best in FBS) with seven touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Bray’s 78.46 completion percentage has to worry Gator defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.

Gator quarterback John Brantley has been less spectacular but solid thus far in 2011. Brantley’s 212 yards per game (59^th in FBS) is average and his one touchdown pass has to concern Gator fans. Florida has relied on a solid rushing attack that is averaging 248.5 yards per game.

Florida will get their first true test of the year on defense. Florida’s rush defense has been stingy only allowing 50.5 yards per game but against lesser competition (Florida Atlantic and UAB). Their pass defense has been equally as impressive only allowing 124 yards per game (12^th ranked FBS).

Tennessee gives up 138 yards per game rushing which will be the focus of the Gator attack.

The big question for Tennessee fans is: Has Charlie Weis scaled back the offense waiting for SEC play? Will we see a different John Brantley against the Vols?

Tauren Poole has not got on track yet this year. Can Poole become a factor against the Gators or will Bray and standout receivers Justin Hunter and Da’Rick Rogers have to carry the Vols offense again?

Prediction:

It’s tough to win on the road in college football and even tougher to win at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Florida wins their seventh straight against the Vols 24-17.

Navy (2-0) vs. South Carolina (2-0)

If you enjoy watching teams run the ball then this is the game for you. Navy leads the nation in total rushing yards (801) and rushing yards per game (400.5). Behind the efforts of sophomore standout running back Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina is averaging 236.5 rushing yards per game (21^st in FBS).

USC’s Marcus Lattimore (144 yards per game) and the Midshipmen’s Kriss Proctor (99.5) will be the focal points for each team’s offense. Both teams have two of the worst statistical passing offenses in college football. South Carolina (107th) gets the slight statistical edge over Navy (119th) averaging 136 yards per game to Navy’s 73.

South Carolina gives up 136 rushing yards per game. Navy gives up 172. Can either team stop the other team’s rushing attack? On third and long situations the advantage goes to South Carolina’s passing attack. South Carolina has also played against tougher competition (East Carolina and Georgia) while the Midshipmen have played Delaware and Western Kentucky.

South Carolina’s size and talent should net them another win. If Navy can get a couple of early scores and stop USC early in the game, this could end up being a tight game in the fourth quarter.

Prediction:

South Carolina wins 35-21.

Louisville (1-1) vs. Kentucky (2-0)

Whoever said winning pretty was important didn’t get the message to Kentucky head coach Joker Phillips. But who really cares as long as you keep winning? The Wildcats hope to keep that momentum going against Cardinals.

Kentucky’s passing offense has been nonexistent with Morgan Newton under center (211 total passing yards in two games) against lesser competition (Western Kentucky and Central Michigan). UK is averaging 105.5 yards passing per game ranking them 115th in FBS. Louisville is averaging 294.5 yards per game (23^rd best in FBS).

The focus points for either team will be the Cardinals’ run defense against the Wildcats rushing attack and the Wildcats pass defense against the Cardinals’ passing attack.

The Cardinals are tough against the run only allowing 2.5 yards per attempt. The Wildcats ran for 230 yards against Central Michigan in a rallying win (down 13-6 at halftime) last week. Kentucky is allowing 194 yards passing per game (tied for 45th in FBS).

Starting running back Raymond Sanders is out against Louisville. He had surgery on his right knee to replace a slight tear. He is expected to miss 2-3 weeks. True freshman Josh Clemons (Fayetteville, GA) will get the start for Kentucky. Clemons ran for 124 yards against Central Michigan including an 87 yard run that gave Kentucky the lead in the fourth quarter.

The Wildcats will be without starting center Matt Smith and tackle Billy Joe Murphy again. UK will need those guys healthy for their next game against the Gators.

Prediction:

Kentucky finds a way to win their fifth straight against Louisville 17-14.

North Texas (0-2) vs. Alabama (2-0)

Alabama gets a tune-up game against the Mean Green before hosting Arkansas.

North Texas has lost at FIU 41-16 and at home to Houston 48-23. Alabama is coming off a big non-conference win against Penn State 27-11.

Bama should be able to rest their starters in the second half and provide quality playing time for all of their backups.

Prediction:

Alabama wins 49-3

Troy (0-1) vs. Arkansas (2-0)

The Razorbacks look to improve their record against Sun Belt Conference teams to 28-0 Saturday when the face Troy.

Troy lost their opening game to Clemson 43-19 and had a bye week last week. Troy hung tough with Clemson in the first half leading 16-13 at halftime. Clemson outscored the Trojans 30-0 in the second half to earn the season opening victory.

Troy should be Arkansas’ toughest opponent to date. Based off the Trojans first game, look for them to use a balanced attack as they ran the ball 36 times and passed 42 times against Clemson. The Trojans committed three turnovers against the Tigers losing two fumbles and throwing one interception.

The focal point for the Razorbacks will be to keep starting quarterback Tyler Wilson healthy for next week’s matchup against Alabama and to continue to make strides in the running game.

Wilson did not play in the second half against New Mexico with concussion like symptoms after a touchdown run against the Lobos. This was the second game in a row that Wilson has put himself in danger of taking an unnecessary big hit which could limit his play for the rest of the season.

Arkansas made strides in their running game against the Lobos finishing with 259 net yards rushing; Arkansas quarterbacks accounted for 103 of those net rushing yards. Against Missouri State the Hogs only netted 102 rushing yards. Look for Bobby Petrino to look for different lineups along the offensive line that can help the Razorbacks beef up their run attack going into conference play.

Dennis Johnson is scheduled to make his first appearance of the year for the Razorbacks after battling hamstring issues during the first two games of the season. The addition of Johnson should help bolster the running attack of the Razorbacks.

Arkansas running back Ronnie Wingo Jr. improved his yards per carry average against the Lobos. Against New Mexico he averaged 5.9 yards per attempt after only averaging 3.5 per attempt against the Bears.

The status on Jake Bequette and Jarius Wright playing against Troy will not be known until later in the week. Arkansas hopes they will not need either player against the Trojans and they can rest both before they start SEC play against Alabama.

Stats for Arkansas fans:

Arkansas is third in the nation in scoring offense (51.5 per game) behind Washington State and Georgia Tech.

Arkansas’ passing offense is ranked eighth in FBS averaging 368.5 yards per game.

Arkansas rush defense is ranked 33^rd in the nation only allowing 89.5 yards per game.

The Razorback defense is ranked 16^th in the nation in total defense.

Prediction:

Arkansas wins 49-17. 

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SEC College Football Preview: (3) LSU versus Mississippi State

Mississippi State

More questions than answers were left for Mississippi State after their dramatic 41-34 loss to in-conference rival Auburn last Saturday.

With 10 seconds left to play in regulation, MSU head coach Dan Mullen gave his starting quarterback, Chris Relf, the choice to call the would be last offensive play of the game: pass or run. With no timeouts remaining Relf choose a running play and was stopped an inch short of the goal line.

Let the questions begin. With time to run a pass play first and if unsuccessful then choose a running play, why would Dan Mullen leave the final play call to his senior quarterback? One would think that Mullen or his offensive coordinator Les Koenning should be left with that decision especially with the game on the line during a season with so much at stake for Mullen and the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State has 15 returning starters from a team that finished the 2010 season 9-4 with a convincing Gator Bowl blow out of Michigan 52-14. Auburn has five returning starters from their 2010 BCS National Championship team and struggled in their first game of the season to beat Utah State in Jordan-Hare Stadium. College football pundits, the national media, and Bulldog fans all sensed an opportunity for MSU to take the next step within the SEC by beating Auburn. Mississippi State has to feel a certain amount of a let down after missing an opportunity to win a tough in-conference game.

Still more questions remain for MSU. Is the loss of Mississippi State’s three starting linebackers from 2010 going to be too much for them to overcome in 2011, especially Chris White who led the Bulldogs with 110 tackles and six sacks?

Was Auburn a trap game for a team looking ahead to their matchup against third ranked LSU?

Has MSU’s offensive game plan become predictable? Gene Chizik was quoted saying, “We called time out there at the end and told them (the Auburn defense) what was going to happen the final two plays.”

How will Vick Ballard, the nation’s third leading rusher with 301 total yards in two games for a 150.5 yard per game average, hold up on a shortened game week against the stingy LSU defense, which is ranked 12 th in the nation in total defense? That includes LSU’s game against the high powered Oregon Ducks.

Chris Relf is a big guy and gives as many hits as he takes, but how many hits can he take standing in the pocket and on the run before he starts to wear down?

LSU

Even with all the turmoil surrounding this LSU team, Les Miles and the Tigers continue to roll. LSU easily defeated Northwestern State on Saturday 49-3, but more importantly they were able to rest the majority of their starters in the second half against the Demons.

LSU has stuck to their offensive game plan and it has turned out well for them so far this year: don’t turn the ball over, limit long third down conversion plays, rely on the defense for field position, and run the ball as often as possible. The game plan worked so well against Northwestern State that quality time was given to backup players including University of Georgia transfer, quarterback Zach Mettenberger. Mettenberger finished the game with 92 yards passing and a touchdown completing eight of his eleven pass attempts. LSU starting quarterback Jarrett Lee completed the first half of play going 9-10 for 133 yards with no interceptions.

Les Miles was able to limit the wear and tare on Spencer Ware. Ware only carried the ball six times but scored twice. Michael Ford finished the game with 71 yards rushing on 13 attempts with two rushing touchdowns.  Sophomore backup running back Alfred Blue finished the game with a game high 15 rushing attempts.

Ball control was a problem for the Tigers. They fumbled the ball three times only losing one fumble.

The Tigers defense was dominating holding Demons to minus four yards rushing and 99 yards passing. The defense created four fumbles but could not convert any of those fumbles into turnovers.

Outcome of the Game

Is it too early in the season to call this game a make or break game for the Bulldogs? MSU still has to play at Georgia, vs. South Carolina, vs. Alabama, at Arkansas, and the Egg Bowl at home. Should MSU lose, being down two games within conference play could push them out of contention for the SEC West title in week three.

Will LSU get caught looking ahead to their road game at West Virginia? Will the cowbells ringing inside Davis Wade Stadium disrupt Jarrett Lee’s ability to call plays at the line of scrimmage?

Both teams have plenty of motivation going into this game. MSU doesn’t want to be left behind in the SEC West race and LSU feels they have BCS National Championship talent. A loss could be devastating to either team’s hopes for the season.

Look for both teams to have the same philosophy going into the game: run the ball as mush as possible and hope their defense makes stops and gets turnovers against the other team’s offense.

In the end defense wins championships and tough road games during conference play. LSU will not get caught looking ahead to their Big East opponent West Virgina.

LSU grinds out another win for the Tiger faithful.

LSU 28 – MSU 18

Notes to the Game:

LSU has won the last 11 meetings against MSU.

LSU won last year’s game 29-7 in Baton Rouge.

MSU could be without two starting senior offensive linemen against LSU. Center Quentin Saulsberry (sprained knee) and left tackle James Carmon (leg) were both injured during the Auburn game. Their availability to play could come down to a game time decision.

Can LSU’s DT Michael Brockers continue his strong play up front and help stuff Mississippi State’s fifth ranked offense?

Starting LSU linebacker Ryan Baker has been reinstated for the MSU game. Baker was suspended against Northwestern State for breaking a team rule.

LSU senior starting offensive guard Josh Dworaczyk will miss the MSU game due to surgery on his knee.

* Game time is 8:00 p.m. EST. 

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